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J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

sprintersacren said:
Im not really sure about then hype for real steel in this....in his last race he was only about 2 lengths ahead of ladofhopeandglory at the last and then he goes away because the 2nd horse makes a mistake which stops his momentum.

I might be wrong but I'm sure Mullins said if he got beat that day then they would look at a handicap, when does Mullins ever talk about a graded performer like that? Think Mullins also said he's got more chance of his novice hurdlers winning a race then his novice chasers, seen as its not his strongest bunch of novice hurdlers he can't have much faith in his chasers. I know the tizzard can make a mistake but on the whole he's a much better jumper then real steel who looks a bit awkward over a fence.

Surley the top 2 have much the superior form then anything else at the moment and iv never liked DDS so it will be the tizzard horse for me. I don't think 5/1 is a bad price after reviewing the race.

Thats just my view, in case anyone is wondering I have backed real steel at 33/1 but I can't see him winning this....will be surprised if he does.
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Sprinter IMO
You’ve summarised it perfectly
 
I take the view that the other horses in the race run to their marks- Jett and Moon Over Germany to the pound at the weights. If so that would put Real steel on 160 considering he won comfortably by 10L.
 
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Bigfish said:
I take the view that the other horses in the race run to their marks- Jett and Moon Over Germany to the pound at the weights. If so that would put Real steel on 160 considering he won comfortably by 10L.
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Beating 132 rated Burgas 10L more realistic.

Vautour won with a rating of 154. Your nuts if you think Real Steel is a 160 horse.
 
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I'm just adding the numbers together boopa. I also considered the ease of victory,. Jett is rated 142 11-12 carried and Moon Over Germany 132 carried 11-2. Real Steel finished nearly 14l ahead of those two carried 11-12, easing down.= 160
 
boopa said:
Beating 132 rated Burgas 10L more realistic.

Vautour won with a rating of 154. Your nuts if you think Real Steel is a 160 horse.
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He won so easily that day that he could have been 20L ahead. I have Burgas on 137 myself as I use my own ratings to detrmine ability. I also factor in that Burgas is a third season chaser.
 
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On blind numbers is was a very good performance. RPR of 154 puts him up there with anything so far this season.

Jett is badly handicapped off 145, according to RP Bigfish he ran off 145 not 142?

I wouldn't say RS has beaten anything yet to provide him with an accurate mark to go off.
 
jack1092 said:
On blind numbers is was a very good performance. RPR of 154 puts him up there with anything so far this season.

Jett is badly handicapped off 145, according to RP Bigfish he ran off 145 not 142?

I wouldn't say RS has beaten anything yet to provide him with an accurate mark to go off.
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My own rating performance for Jett ,not the OR. The RPR's are not used in my reckonings as they are confusing the racing public and do not sometimes reflect an outstanding performance.
 
Bigfish said:
My own rating performance for Jett ,not the OR. The RPR's are not used in my reckonings as they are confusing the racing public and do not sometimes reflect an outstanding performance.
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Ok bigfish, you really must be all in on him. Higher going into the race than Yorkhill + Vautour....going by your ratings, but then i suppose your ratings might've been higher for them going into it too!

Out of interest, what ratings do DDS + LIT sit on?
 
jack1092 said:
Ok bigfish, you really must be all in on him. Higher going into the race than Yorkhill + Vautour....going by your ratings, but then i suppose your ratings might've been higher for them going into it too!

Out of interest, what ratings do DDS + LIT sit on?
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My own ratings are presently DDS 151 and LIT 154 for Cheltenham . This factors in the testing uphill finish course configuration and likely going. The final rating at maturity will be adjusted with natural improvement and progression.
 
Bigfish said:
My own ratings are presently DDS 151 and LIT 154 for Cheltenham . This factors in the testing uphill finish course configuration and likely going. The final rating at maturity will be adjusted with natural improvement and progression.
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What does that last sentence mean BFish ?
sounds nonsensical,
 
quevega said:
What does that last sentence mean BFish ?
sounds nonsensical,
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Not to me. A horse achieves its final or best figure when mature and at optimum conditions. It will increase it's rating by running faster and jumping more efficiently.
 
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Bigfish said:
Not to me. A horse achieves its final or best figure when mature and at optimum conditions. It will increase it's rating by running faster and jumping more efficiently.
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Now that sentence is like rocket science.:highly_amused:
 
Isn't that obvious Bigfish!?

Anyway i agree. LIT is the one!

Not too sure how you still come to the RS figure but hey good luck!
 
Bookies been quick to anticipate Defi switch.
 
Hughz123 said:
Anyone think that Defi will stick to the JLT?
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I do. He's been specifically trained for the distance of the race. Triumph hurdle winners are usually campaigned over 2 1/2 m to 3m + as they progress.
 
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Bigfish said:
I do. He's been specifically trained for the distance of the race. Triumph hurdle winners are usually campaigned over 2 1/2 m to 3m + as they progress.
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BF
Hope you’re right
My pocket and head are not in agreement
 
Bigfish said:
I do. He's been specifically trained for the distance of the race. Triumph hurdle winners are usually campaigned over 2 1/2 m to 3m + as they progress.
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he did the same with captain chris
Personally think he'll stick to the JLT, and would be the wrong call to go Arkle, he didnt look comfortable at cheltenham in november
 
TC2 said:
he did the same with captain chris
Personally think he'll stick to the JLT, and would be the wrong call to go Arkle, he didnt look comfortable at cheltenham in november
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To be fair though that was his first run after a horrible season for Hobbs last year the horse was bound to improve for it. I wouldn't be worried about the trip at all, it's the likely good ground that would worry me.
 
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