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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused: 4 weeks to 5 weeks? I can see SOME logic in a Gold Cup (but I'd want to know who tried and over what trips etc)....


I have another stat though.

Presenting Certainty has a 100% record at Cheltenham from a 24/25 day prep :p
Click to expand...

Drops the mic and just walks off like a boss
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused: 4 weeks to 5 weeks? I can see SOME logic in a Gold Cup (but I'd want to know who tried and over what trips etc)....


I have another stat though.

Presenting Certainty has a 100% record at Cheltenham from a 24/25 day prep :p
Click to expand...


Boom! That will do it for me. I was already really keen on PP but that stat confirms my selection!
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused: 4 weeks to 5 weeks? I can see SOME logic in a Gold Cup (but I'd want to know who tried and over what trips etc)....


I have another stat though.

Presenting Certainty has a 100% record at Cheltenham from a 24/25 day prep :p
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
You won't know but that gif is hilariously funny/ironic... (going to after time real life here)...

You may (probably didn't) notice I wasn't on the forum on Saturday, as I had a works conference then award ceremony....

I was up for an award on Saturday (won it), and have won a trip to Marrakech in the process :very_drunk: .... All great?

Just like the chappie above, bow tie on, the full works, looking pretty cool even if I say so myself...

As I went up to get the award, I went to 'pop' the fence/stage, but wrapped the top bar!!!! and went flat on my face! :highly_amused::highly_amused:

I then rolled around on the floor, got up and bowed and tried to style it out.... thought I had done, but my cummerbund had riden up and was wrapped around my stomach/chest area!!

Legendary status is cemented, for all the wrong reasons :very_drunk:
 
Kevloaf said:
You won't know but that gif is hilariously funny/ironic... (going to after time real life here)...

You may (probably didn't) notice I wasn't on the forum on Saturday, as I had a works conference then award ceremony....

I was up for an award on Saturday (won it), and have won a trip to Marrakech in the process :very_drunk: .... All great?

Just like the chappie above, bow tie on, the full works, looking pretty cool even if I say so myself...

As I went up to get the award, I went to 'pop' the fence/stage, but wrapped the top bar!!!! and went flat on my face! :highly_amused::highly_amused:

I then rolled around on the floor, got up and bowed and tried to style it out.... thought I had done, but my cummerbund had riden up and was wrapped around my stomach/chest area!!

Legendary status is cemented, for all the wrong reasons :very_drunk:
Click to expand...


Haha, incredible! Congrats on the award, and not being out for the season :devilish:
 
archie said:
And that went well, didn't it.:highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Well to be fair he got injured, pulled up and retired, so I wouldn't be too adamant.

Kemboy should take the race in, he'd have a better chance of doing the double than Our Duke?


I do agree that it'd be too close to Cheltenham to have a 3 mile race.... a race over 2m4f when you know they aren't fully wound up does no harm for me...


I certainly wouldn't fancy Native River or CDO more if they have a titanic battle up the hill 5 weeks off, than 2 miles 4 staying on, 4 weeks out?
 
Kevloaf said:
You won't know but that gif is hilariously funny/ironic... (going to after time real life here)...

You may (probably didn't) notice I wasn't on the forum on Saturday, as I had a works conference then award ceremony....

I was up for an award on Saturday (won it), and have won a trip to Marrakech in the process :very_drunk: .... All great?

Just like the chappie above, bow tie on, the full works, looking pretty cool even if I say so myself...

As I went up to get the award, I went to 'pop' the fence/stage, but wrapped the top bar!!!! and went flat on my face! :highly_amused::highly_amused:

I then rolled around on the floor, got up and bowed and tried to style it out.... thought I had done, but my cummerbund had riden up and was wrapped around my stomach/chest area!!

Legendary status is cemented, for all the wrong reasons :very_drunk:
Click to expand...

someone must have a video of that ?
 
Kevloaf said:
You won't know but that gif is hilariously funny/ironic... (going to after time real life here)...

You may (probably didn't) notice I wasn't on the forum on Saturday, as I had a works conference then award ceremony....

I was up for an award on Saturday (won it), and have won a trip to Marrakech in the process :very_drunk: .... All great?

Just like the chappie above, bow tie on, the full works, looking pretty cool even if I say so myself...

As I went up to get the award, I went to 'pop' the fence/stage, but wrapped the top bar!!!! and went flat on my face! :highly_amused::highly_amused:

I then rolled around on the floor, got up and bowed and tried to style it out.... thought I had done, but my cummerbund had riden up and was wrapped around my stomach/chest area!!

Legendary status is cemented, for all the wrong reasons :very_drunk:
Click to expand...


Cracking place is Marrakech Kev, have you been before?
 
Kevloaf said:
No, never.
Click to expand...

Its crazy, we hired some dude in a car who took us about everywhere, it was amazing

Make sure you get in the souk for some bartering its good fun, if you don't want to pay their price walk away and they will lower their price.

Also get round the new town as well, some nice restaurants there.


Anyway back to the GC :)
 
I went across from Spain for a day, we were with redheads....they attracted some attention from the kids! We were swormed!
 
archie said:
Kev loves a stat (:devilish:) so here's one specially for him.

None of the last 12 winners of the Gold Cup had run within 33 days of the big day. The Red Mills Chase is 27 days before the Gold Cup.
Click to expand...

Going on from this, no Gold Cup winner this century has had his prep race after the second weekend in February.
Of the 18 winners:
9 hadn't raced since Christmas week
6 raced during the second weekend in February
2 raced mid January (Don Cossack in the Kinloch Brae and Long Run in the rearranged King George)
1 (Bobs Worth) went straight from the Hennessy on December 1st.

I'm thinking that Gault Stats will be making a similar point.
 
archie said:
Going on from this, no Gold Cup winner this century has had his prep race after the second weekend in February.
Of the 18 winners:
9 hadn't raced since Christmas week
6 raced during the second weekend in February
2 raced mid January (Don Cossack in the Kinloch Brae and Long Run in the rearranged King George)
1 (Bobs Worth) went straight from the Hennessy on December 1st.

I'm thinking that Gault Stats will be making a similar point.
Click to expand...

So of the ones that raced since Christmas (50%), 6 raced in February (66.6%)

What point will he be making?

How much difference do you genuinely think 1 week will make, when the horse has literally proven he can win at the festival off a similar break for two years in a row?


If Presenting Percy gets beaten in the Gold Cup, I am certain it isn't because he had a prep 24/25 days before.
 
Last edited:
That this weekend is the deadline. Didn't he say last year that less than 31 days was/is a no no?

Better face it, Kev, Percy is a no-hoper.:cool:
 
I hope he goes straight there without another run, that'll fox all that stat boys. They'll be running round like the mice on Bagpuss.
 
archie said:
That this weekend is the deadline. Didn't he say last year that less than 31 days was/is a no no?

Better face it, Kev, Percy is a no-hoper.:cool:
Click to expand...

He did, and from Gaultstats which still has last years work up for now..... http://www.gaultstats.com/3-30-tmco-cheltenham-gold-cup we can check last years.... the trends also told us that no horse can win if:

A. Won this having been a beaten favourite last time out (Not an issue for PP)

B. Won having run on officially heavy ground that season (No problem for PP, he hasn't)

C. Won this for the first time having been beaten in a previous Gold Cup or(BUSTED - Native River crushed this stat last year, and it wouldn't affect Percy anyway)

D. Won aged 10 years or over, including four favourites(No Issue for PP either)

Then we move onto the lesser trends...


No horse wearing headgear has won in 15 years
Native River had sheepskin cheek pieces on, so that ones another that got BUSTED

15 of the last 17 were rated 166+ before their win
(Percy already at 169)

Eight of the last 15 favourites have won
Better than 50% record, a good sign for Presenting Percy

Last 17 were all previous G1 chase winners
Is the RSA a G1 chase...oh yes, another huge tick

No King George/GC double since 2011
Good race to avoid as you know...

Native River has a big 'bounce' stat to overcome
BUSTED - Unlucky 'trends', doesn't affect PP anyway

No trainer has ever won Ch Hurdle, QM and GC in the same year
and they won't be this year...doesn't matter to PP!
​

So they we're the KEY TRENDS last year, now none of them are relevant, you've found one that fits?

No-hoper indeed :p
 
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