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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

  • Total voters
    66
Nortons who said:
I know how much you guys love trends ! So what we do about this fact. As a guide 18 of the last 20 winners of the GC came from the first 3 in the betting. It's pretty clear that PP will stay there unless he make a hash of his next race, so the other ones in the trio are probably dependant on the outcome of the Leopardstown GC and the Denman Chase. Currently Native River and Kemboy are 2nd and 3rd on the NRNB prices supplied earlier but there has been plenty of criticism of their chances on this forum.

I still don't like backing short price FAVs for the GC so I'm continuing to search for some potential value elsewhere. As already mentioned Sizing John 16s win and Anibale Fly 25s ew appeal based on what they could achieve if reaching previous form levels. If the trainers can't get them ready in time to a good standard then they won't run. If they get them to the race then I think they would give a good account of themselves.
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Talking of trends ( everyone sharpen there knifes) Frodon lacking the Grade 1 win albeit improved this season without contesting one looks a biggish one to overcome, sure i read only one of the last 20 have won without one:confused:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Native River - looks even slower this season, needs soft
!
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How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
 
Istabraq said:
How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
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They'd have been better doing the same this season as last.
Denman Chase then Gold cup.
Horse looks brave but tired and a bit slower, mileage issue with him I reckon.
Couldn't totally rule him out though to be fair.
 
Istabraq said:
How does NR look slower this season FM ?
His runs have been on flat tracks over unsuitably short trips, I think he’s done nothing but enhance his crudentials....
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NR never really went a yard at Kempton and was being pushed along after only a few fences. It was a similar story at Haydock, where again he didn't really travel throughout the race.

He is a thorough stayer but I just think last season's gold cup may have left its mark. He did finish third at Kempton but he was never in the race imo and if he isn't traveling in the gold cup he'll be up against it from the off.

Edit - never went a yard is perhaps a tad harsh but he was off the bridle very early.
 
Istabraq said:
Surely you’ve been married for long enough to know that’s par for the course...
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A fair point :p but so is this....?

Does Native River strike you as a multiple (back-to-back) Gold Cup winner?

That impressive list consists of:

Kauto Star
Best Mate
L'Escargot
Arkle
Golden Miller
Cottage Rake


Now you don't need to be too deeply involved in the sport to know that they are a cut above the likes of Native Bloomin' River?

Minella Rocco hasn't done much for the form either :p

and again, Presenting Percy will have no trouble holding on to a pace that he's setting, Kemboy, Frodon, Clan Des Obeaux will all be able to live with him for the first 2 miles at least.
 
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Native River hasn't gone a yard yet. Soft ground would give him a chance but he looks like damaged goods to me.
 
No horse ever wins a Gold Cup on the bridle, NH racing is awash with stayers that come on and off the bridle, staying is his game so if he happens to be 6l off the pace halfway round I won’t be panicking if he’s asked to get closer.
Haydock and Kempton will never show NR at his best, more undulating and stamina demanding tracks is what he needs, I think Tizzard has run him deliberately in those races to get him racing at quicker pace....
 
Istabraq said:
No horse ever wins a Gold Cup on the bridle, NH racing is awash with stayers that come on and off the bridle, staying is his game so if he happens to be 6l off the pace halfway round I won’t be panicking if he’s asked to get closer.
Haydock and Kempton will never show NR at his best, more undulating and stamina demanding tracks is what he needs, I think Tizzard has run him deliberately in those races to get him racing at quicker pace....
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He has more pace than Elegant Escape :(
 
Native River showed speed last season at Newbury a track similar to Haydock. He doesn't look the same horse this season.

His only chance is galloping them into submission on softish ground. 5/1 is an awful price wouldn't touch over double that personally.
 
boopa said:
Native River showed speed last season at Newbury a track similar to Haydock. He doesn't look the same horse this season.

His only chance is galloping them into submission on softish ground. 5/1 is an awful price wouldn't touch over double that personally.
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Newbury is considered to be more stamina demanding than most courses, not entirely sure why but I know one or two trainers have commented about the track being far more undulating than it appears...
 
Istabraq said:
Newbury is considered to be more stamina demanding than most courses, not entirely sure why but I know one or two trainers have commented about the track being far more undulating than it appears...
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That was over a shorter trip. He jumped, travelled and scooted clear with ease. A world away from his performances this season.
 
I still think Shattered Love represents good EW value in this. Happy to forgive its last run at Leopardstown in what was a strange race, she was caught wide throughout and ground still a little lively for her.
If we get soft ground then I think she is primed to run a massive race in the GC.
 
Interesting tweet on Frodon- for all i don't fancy him...

From Wayward Lad.
In case you are wondering about the stamina of Frodon, the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip is 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 70 yards. On Saturday, Frodon won over a trip of 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 101 yards.
 
jack1092 said:
Interesting tweet on Frodon- for all i don't fancy him...

From Wayward Lad.
In case you are wondering about the stamina of Frodon, the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip is 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 70 yards. On Saturday, Frodon won over a trip of 3-mile, 2-furlongs & 101 yards.
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How well do you think he stayed that trip?

I backed him NRNB in case he won thinking he'd have proven he gets the trip well ... I didn't amount for him holding on inconclusively
 
Kevloaf said:
How well do you think he stayed that trip?

I backed him NRNB in case he won thinking he'd have proven he gets the trip well ... I didn't amount for him holding on inconclusively
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I personally still think he'll be outstayed in a GC- but thought that post was interesting!
 
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