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Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.
- Thread starter BigChaang
- Start date
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Yes, I think that is good value. GW was (unsurprisingly) very optimistic about him on the FFP last week.
Hmmm... I'm not sure I'd say he's the value. I'm not convinced he'd line up or be Ruby's mount (Al Boum Photo fan here)...
however, are you likely to see him bigger than 25/1? Nope... so it's not exactly a big risk with cashout.
Thinking aloud... if he wins the King George he's single figures and definitely going... so good bet.
If he loses over Christmas, I'd definitely be looking to cash out...but would he get pushed out? Maybe to 33/1, you'd take a bit of a hit I'd say
If he runs well but doesn't win, he'd be a similar price with a bit of uncertainty about whether he'd go? - Cashout for a small loss?
I also think he's a bit more of a win only kinda candidate for me. He has not put in a good performance at Cheltenham yet (with valid excuses one of the times) so not one I'd be confident of on the day to make the frame... there wil lbe other stayers on the day that I think would have as good a chance of getting a place.
So my answer is, I think I don't.... but I am thinknig.
delsie777
Previous Lurker
Yeah - I think that 25-1 at a quarter the odds when he's as short as 12's with some must be an each way angle. I think he's more likely to go to the 'Lexus' which could cut up - and if he performed well there? Don't get me wrong, I'm more than aware of the Cheltenham factor and the left handed question, but still...
Bellshill wont be running in the KG if the exchange is anything to go by? I'd be amazed if it doesn't run in the Gold Cup though. This is his year to have a crack at it.
Patrick Mullins put forward the RH theory. Ruby doesn't agree.
Patrick Mullins put forward the RH theory. Ruby doesn't agree.
Watch the RSA. Bellshill was held up. Travelled and jumped nicely through the race before Might Bite quickened from the front. Bellshill didn't have much of a chance. The track is not a problem.
Quevega
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Might Bite is though. Just a far superior animal that day.
2 years on from their RSA, they're careers can't be going in complete opposite directions can they?
(Of course they CAN, obviously) but Bellshill still takes a leap of faith. I think I under rate his more recent form still though
Quevega
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https://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/11541642/willie-mullins-eyes-first-cheltenham-gold-cup
Wylie definitely stated Gold cup also for Bellshill.
In this article Willie also mentioned ABP being aimed at one of the gold cups, Leopardstown or Cheltenham.
Wylie definitely stated Gold cup also for Bellshill.
In this article Willie also mentioned ABP being aimed at one of the gold cups, Leopardstown or Cheltenham.
Bellshill is a year younger and only had 7 chase runs. I'd much rather be on Bellshill at the prices. Might Bite had his chance last season. Wouldn't back him with stolen money.
Bellshill was the first Ruby mentioned when asked about the Gold Cup as well. He said he has a few lbs to find but this is his year to do it. Couldn't argue with that. Of course this could change if ABP or Kemboy win the Lexus but Bellshill would still run with Townend on.
Quevega
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I personally don't fancy Bellshill or Might Bite for the GC, but have looked at the 25-1 Bellshill B365 more than once
As if season goes reasonably to plan then it should run and be a lot shorter, at least on the day, even if it don't win before march, as long as it runs placed sort of form.
As if season goes reasonably to plan then it should run and be a lot shorter, at least on the day, even if it don't win before march, as long as it runs placed sort of form.
Bellshill wasn't targeted at the Gold Cup last season. He was by far the best horse in the Irish National then won at Punchestown. I believe the plan was always to develop him and target the Gold Cup this season.
jack1092
Previous Lurker
No horse has won the Savills Chase since it's been a G1 on his seasonal reappearance...trends there to be broken of course...
jack1092
Previous Lurker
She is some mare alright. Meade reports all fine with Road to Respect + Savills very much the plan as long as ground isn't too "good".
4-1 out there wouldn't be bad in my eyes....Presenting Percy no certainty to run, and would be some effort on first run of season.
Then there's Bellshill who i love, but needs to prove he can go that way round.
Sizing John off a layoff would be some achievement.
Then we get down to Monalee, ABP et al.
I think 4s is pretty generous.
4-1 out there wouldn't be bad in my eyes....Presenting Percy no certainty to run, and would be some effort on first run of season.
Then there's Bellshill who i love, but needs to prove he can go that way round.
Sizing John off a layoff would be some achievement.
Then we get down to Monalee, ABP et al.
I think 4s is pretty generous.
