J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[Scooby91]

Via what medium...

I want to ask WH for my money back if he's been declared out for the season :highly_amused:

Via mouth. He was one I was considering a speculative exchange bet for the RSA if I could get huge prices.

I'm not sure how you could do that. :highly_amused:
Maybe tweet him. The head stable lad or Daryl Jacob they might confirm.

 

[Kevloaf]

Via mouth. He was one I was considering a speculative exchange bet for the RSA if I could get huge prices.

I'm not sure how you could do that. :highly_amused:
Maybe tweet him. The head stable lad or Daryl Jacob they might confirm.

My own fault for backing a horse before he has an entry so I won't ask for the justice refund :highly_amused: He was hardly going to collapse in price with an entry... I just got too excited that he was 27/1 with WH any race (boosted) and 16s for the race that was most likely.

What doesn't kill you....

 

[archie]

Just re-watched Voix Du Reve win the Craddockstown over the weekend, I must say I was more impressed than when I first viewed the race. He clouted a few fences, having set a pretty quick tempo, yet still pulled clear to win by 7 lengths when the challengers came, which the race was basically set up for. He jumped better on debut, where he raced over 2m 2f and had a little more time to take his fences, that said, if they iron out his jumping with the tempo he sets I would fear the potential of an Arkle run for him, may cover this angle with free bets myself. Both PP & BFSB have him @ 14/1 for the Arkle, which is a worry as can still get him at 25's. I'm still waiting on them to add him to the JLT though, something they have been reluctant to do so far!

I'm unsure where Willie/Supreme rate Cadmium, maybe Archie can help us out there, but he has an official rating of 147 (taken with a pinch of salt) in Ireland, and he was 9 lengths behind VDR giving him 3lb.

The field was only small but had 3 other LTO winners, including Cadmium who won a Grade 3 at the same track, so you could say the early form is strong.

Saturday was a stepping stone to the Drinmore for Cadmium and we knew it was a tough task to give Voix Du Reve 3lb. However, VDR isn't being talked about as if he's their best Arkle hope and we know that Willie will distribute his hopes around the novice races. VDR has the same sire as Kemboy so he may go up in trip although, as they're now sending him off in front you'd suspect that in that style he'd do better at 2m.

If you could translate hurdles form directly, VDR's Listowel run behind Ballyoisin looks quite useful now. Also pays a quiet compliment to the second.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Saturday was a stepping stone to the Drinmore for Cadmium and we knew it was a tough task to give Voix Du Reve 3lb. However, VDR isn't being talked about as if he's their best Arkle hope and we know that Willie will distribute his hopes around the novice races. VDR has the same sire as Kemboy so he may go up in trip although, as they're now sending him off in front you'd suspect that in that style he'd do better at 2m.

If you could translate hurdles form directly, VDR's Listowel run behind Ballyoisin looks quite useful now. Also pays a quiet compliment to the second.

Thanks Archie.

Personally would not have VDR down as an Arkle horse myself, more a JLT prospect, like Willie did with Kemboy, as you also noted he is by the same sire . I do think that Hurdles run against Ballyoisin/Shanning was very good as you say, given the weight he was giving away!

I know this is something that is far from set in stone, but the Wylie's do like a JLT runner, and aside from Tidal Bay, who won the race, in 2008, they rarely even have a runner in the Arkle. They also don't mind one in the RSA but VDR does not strike me as a typical RSA runner, and is way to free to see out 3m currently. It all points to the JLT, of which the 8 running's we have had of it they have won it as owners 2 times already, and had 4 runners from the last 5 renewals of the race. They didn't have much luck with Invitation Only last season, as he sprawled on landing and that was him done for the race, but he was not without support that day, I'm hoping they have better luck come March with VDR!

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

See Bet365 have Vinndication back out to 33s, as mentioned before with so many doubts (mixture target and ability) about so many at the head of the market this looks a juicy price to me. Another point on the nose today and put him in some Mayo style multi's

 

[Kevloaf]

You'd have to be slightly concerned PP/BFSB don't have Voix Du Reve quoted for the JLT though? Unless its an oddchecker error?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

You'd have to be slightly concerned PP/BFSB don't have Voix Du Reve quoted for the JLT though? Unless its an oddchecker error?

It's not an error. I've requested it numerous times from them and still nothing, which is strange as if it's a given that he doesn't go for the race or isn't fancied they could have my pennies for free....

Make of it what you will, but they were quick enough to add him to the Arkle market, albeit worst available odds currently for that, if anything though he is overpriced for the Arkle as well, still available at 25's having won a Grade 2 with relative ease over the weekend, although I think he'll be up in trip myself.

 

[BigChaang]

It's not an error. I've requested it numerous times from them and still nothing, which is strange as if it's a given that he doesn't go for the race or isn't fancied they could have my pennies for free....

Make of it what you will, but they were quick enough to add him to the Arkle market, albeit worst available odds currently for that, if anything though he is overpriced for the Arkle as well, still available at 25's having won a Grade 2 with relative ease over the weekend, although I think he'll be up in trip myself.

Would V.d.R go for the Arkle , IF , Draconien is out as has been suggested ??.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Would V.d.R go for the Arkle , IF , Draconien is out as has been suggested ??.

I hope not, but it has to be an option. PP / Betfair now have a price on him for the JLT, and they go 25's which isn't encouraging, as they only go 14's for this race!

 

[Scooby91]

Would V.d.R go for the Arkle , IF , Draconien is out as has been suggested ??.

Depends how he gets on in up in grade. They've a couple of nice ones waiting to come out. I'll be suprised if vdr is top of the pecking order come March. But he was very good last time so not implausible at all.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Depends how he gets on in up in grade. They've a couple of nice ones waiting to come out. I'll be suprised if vdr is top of the pecking order come March. But he was very good last time

Would prefer him to go up in trip than up in grade :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

One a bit left field, and knowing Skelton he'll probably end up in some handicap, but Spiritofthegames @ 50/1 is one that could be of interest in this.

He needs 2m 4f+ really, and going by his debut a left handed track like Cheltenham is a positive.

His debut was a 2m 3f listed chase at Chepstow which included 3 time winning chaser, Monbeg Legend. Now they were the only 2 that finished the race, but ultimately were both going better / ahead of the other 2 in the race. I wouldn't call it a deep race by any stretch, but he won in the manner of a good horse.

I have a couple of concerns, firstly the fact he is trained by Skelton, I don't have much faith in him at the very top level, and the likelihood he'll end up in a handicap is probably quite high, so may be worth a request in the 'any race' market, and secondly the horse seems to run his best when fresh, he's won every race coming off the back of a break but has won none after that win.

Again, it's more speculative that anything else, and I shall probably wait for another entry before making any sort of move.

 

[BigChaang]

One a bit left field, and knowing Skelton he'll probably end up in some handicap, but Spiritofthegames @ 50/1 is one that could be of interest in this.

He needs 2m 4f+ really, and going by his debut a left handed track like Cheltenham is a positive.

His debut was a 2m 3f listed chase at Chepstow which included 3 time winning chaser, Monbeg Legend. Now they were the only 2 that finished the race, but ultimately were both going better / ahead of the other 2 in the race. I wouldn't call it a deep race by any stretch, but he won in the manner of a good horse.

I have a couple of concerns, firstly the fact he is trained by Skelton, I don't have much faith in him at the very top level, and the likelihood he'll end up in a handicap is probably quite high, so may be worth a request in the 'any race' market, and secondly the horse seems to run his best when fresh, he's won every race coming off the back of a break but has won none after that win.

Again, it's more speculative that anything else, and I shall probably wait for another entry before making any sort of move.

Spirit of the Games was picked out by the guy's at Plumpton the other week. a.t.r jumps preview.
And to be fair Dan Skelton is Flying this year. so who knows.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

One a bit left field, and knowing Skelton he'll probably end up in some handicap, but Spiritofthegames @ 50/1 is one that could be of interest in this.

He needs 2m 4f+ really, and going by his debut a left handed track like Cheltenham is a positive.

His debut was a 2m 3f listed chase at Chepstow which included 3 time winning chaser, Monbeg Legend. Now they were the only 2 that finished the race, but ultimately were both going better / ahead of the other 2 in the race. I wouldn't call it a deep race by any stretch, but he won in the manner of a good horse.

I have a couple of concerns, firstly the fact he is trained by Skelton, I don't have much faith in him at the very top level, and the likelihood he'll end up in a handicap is probably quite high, so may be worth a request in the 'any race' market, and secondly the horse seems to run his best when fresh, he's won every race coming off the back of a break but has won none after that win.

Again, it's more speculative that anything else, and I shall probably wait for another entry before making any sort of move.

I can’t rememeber where I saw this but I rememeber a few weeks back before the season began that Skelton really really likes this fella. Thinks he’s it a ton of improvement in him.

 

[SeanRock]

Have been sitting on the fence on this race for a few months now bar having Black Op in a few doubles at reasonable odds, Vinndication will do for my single, 33’s with Bet365 surprised they pushed him back out after initially cutting him after his last run which I was impressed with he jumped nice and economically and showed a great attitude to get his head in front in what looked a hot race on paper. This race is going to cut up massively looking at the current market.

 

[BigChaang]

Vinndication is also in the R.s.a market Sean @ 20-1 , 25-1 , maybe the bookies think it more likely he goes there ??.

 

[SeanRock]

Vinndication is also in the R.s.a market Sean @ 20-1 , 25-1 , maybe the bookies think it more likely he goes there ??.

“I was delighted with him, because we had no intention of making all, as he’s a horse who doesn’t do a whole lot in front,” said Bailey.

“To do what he did, I was very pleased. They looked a really nice bunch of horses in the paddock, so I was delighted.

“I’m happy with him over two and a half miles for now, I’d also have no worries about dropping him back to two miles on soft ground, so we’ve got plenty of options. I’ll just see how he comes out of the race first.

“Today was a big day for him going from being a novice hurdler to a novice chaser, but he did it very well.”

These were the trainers thoughts after his win at Carlisle, he won’t be going for the Arkle imo so if he’s going to the festival at all I’d be confident this is his target. If not cash out with 365 is there to fall back on!

 

[charlie]

For me the Vinndication (JLT) & Willoughby Court (Ryanair) EW Double is mustard

 

[Kevloaf]

“I was delighted with him, because we had no intention of making all, as he’s a horse who doesn’t do a whole lot in front,” said Bailey.

“To do what he did, I was very pleased. They looked a really nice bunch of horses in the paddock, so I was delighted.

“I’m happy with him over two and a half miles for now, I’d also have no worries about dropping him back to two miles on soft ground, so we’ve got plenty of options. I’ll just see how he comes out of the race first.

“Today was a big day for him going from being a novice hurdler to a novice chaser, but he did it very well.”

These were the trainers thoughts after his win at Carlisle, he won’t be going for the Arkle imo so if he’s going to the festival at all I’d be confident this is his target. If not cash out with 365 is there to fall back on!

Yeah absofruitly.

I didn't realise I have had a free bet at 33/1

I've added 1 pt e/w with 365 - I loved his run and I think I'll fall in love with this horse this season. Reminds me of Barters Hill and his qualities.

 

[Kevloaf]

Can't win them all.... this might be my worst ante post race so far....14 pts staked

Kalashnikov 28/1 ew
Black Op 13/1
Claimintakinforgan 33/1 ew
On The Blind Side 16/1 free bets
Vinndication 33/1 ew and free bet
Lostintralsation 22/1 any race
Messire Des Obeaux 27/1 ew (non runner)

Kalashnikov an unlikely runner at this point - will be hoping he gets beaten on route to the Arkle and looks like he needs the step up in trip

Black Op is fine but I already said elsewhere this is not a bet I'm pleased to have had - too short when the target isn'[t assured and he hasn't jumped a fence yet!

Claimintakenforgan - positive is that he will be going UP in trip so this race looks likely, negative is that he doesn't look good enough on what we've seen so far.

On The Blind Side - he's short enough at 16/1 and I've only had free bets on - would definitely interest me but target not confirmed either and not seen him entered yet.

Vinndication - I have fallen in love with - not a certain runner at the festival though, but I am hopeful he can carry on progressing. He'd be the one I wanted most at the moment.

Lostintranslation - backed any race because no idea where he'll be going, should learn a lot at Newbury on Friday, will be hoping for a good run - only 1 pt on though