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Originally posted by PadstheFish
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So we've had the second forfeit stage published. BDM still in, but if Aintree is the target, he could still go for the Bowl - IMO probably the better choice, with Anibale Fly at a big weights advantage.
BDM's possible participation remains a significant variable for GN weights and ratings, but time and tide wait for no man. So, with essentially all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - it's unlikely the cut will come below that.
They're ranked below in order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my previous model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with "winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune) were one notch below this range, normally considered as having "Strong Place Potential".
An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. As much as we'd like it to whittle the field down to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it - as it must if it's to be of any value over time.
As will be seen, unfortunately, this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.
In the past it’s identified between 3 and 6 horses with winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home.
However, with that many on the shortlist, sadly, instinct had to come into play, and I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out where possible on 3rd placed Bless The Wings.
The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company was the first statistical outlier in the model to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.
I'd hoped the new model might deliver a shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for my picking and choosing, but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most competitive GNs for years:
That said, in 2012, the old model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since 1988. Desperately sadly, that runner (Synchronised) never came home.
While the model wasn't necessarily wrong, nor is it a crystal ball. All it does is hopefully improve returns and the bottom line over time, and despite the occasional mis-translation when putting fancies on the betting slip, it's worked well down the years.
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So, to business.
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With two key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the context of four alternative scenarios. Despite having two stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN, but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies!).
Odds are current best price for NRNB 5 places (1/4 or 1/5 odds) - some of these may not line up of course:
A. BDM scratched / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee (33/1), Tiger Roll (9/2)
#3 General Principle (33/1), Anibale Fly (12/1), Abolitionist (33/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1)
B. BDM scratched / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly
#6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)
C. BDM runs / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant Company
D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden
#8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue
A notch below the aforementioned horses in the ratings are those who could run a huge race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions), but are considered Place Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini (25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).
How does this, therefore, translate to the betting slip? (TBC)
BDM's possible participation remains a significant variable for GN weights and ratings, but time and tide wait for no man. So, with essentially all preps run, below are my model's top-rated 2019 GN entries, after running the slide rule over all those down to OR143 - it's unlikely the cut will come below that.
They're ranked below in order of strength of rating, but all those listed have ratings in the range inhabited by the 20 highest-rated of the 22 GN winners and near-missers (<5L) since 2005, as back-tested by my previous model. FYI, the 2 lowest-rated former winners/near-missers (both in the same race, which had only 2 runners with "winning" ratings, both of which ran well but encountered misfortune) were one notch below this range, normally considered as having "Strong Place Potential".
An important point about a model is that it is, of course, totally objective. As much as we'd like it to whittle the field down to just 4, all at tasty e/w odds, and rule out those at the head of the market, it simply tells it as it sees it - as it must if it's to be of any value over time.
As will be seen, unfortunately, this year it’s largely (though not totally) seeing things as the market is.
In the past it’s identified between 3 and 6 horses with winning profiles on the specific ground. Last year, on Heavy, it identified 7 and these turned out to include 1st, 3rd and 5th home.
However, with that many on the shortlist, sadly, instinct had to come into play, and I gave the winner the swerve and cashed out where possible on 3rd placed Bless The Wings.
The model had done a decent job but I failed to back the correct perm from its shortlist. That said, as noted, Pleasant Company was the first statistical outlier in the model to near-miss in 12 years and prompted my return to the drawing board and construction of Mark II.
I'd hoped the new model might deliver a shortlist this year that could be backed in its entirety, without the need for my picking and choosing, but that’s unlikely, especially if BDM runs. Indeed, from OR and my model's perspectives, it's shaping up to be one of the highest quality and most competitive GNs for years:
- BDM would be the highest (uncompressed) Officially Rated GN runner (172) since Master Oats in 1997.
- Even with 4lbs OR compression for the race, his presence would keep the absolute weights at levels that elevate the stat-ratings of several from "strong place potential" to "winning" calibre, depending on the going.
- The model's two highest-rated runners would have “top-quartile” ratings (i.e. in the top 25% of the ratings-range of former winners and near-missers since 2005).
That said, in 2012, the old model rated a runner with the strongest GN stat-profile of any runner since 1988. Desperately sadly, that runner (Synchronised) never came home.
While the model wasn't necessarily wrong, nor is it a crystal ball. All it does is hopefully improve returns and the bottom line over time, and despite the occasional mis-translation when putting fancies on the betting slip, it's worked well down the years.
---------------------------------------
So, to business.
---------------------------------------
With two key “known unknowns”, the ratings are in the context of four alternative scenarios. Despite having two stand-out candidates, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune in a typical GN, but also given the number of winning calibre runners identified by the model, the winner should be one of, but could be any of, those in the relevant list. But, if it were to prove perfectly accurate, either a 45 or a 79-year old trend would be broken on 6 April. If not, maybe we'll have to settle for breaking a 68-year old one – for the Ladies!).
Odds are current best price for NRNB 5 places (1/4 or 1/5 odds) - some of these may not line up of course:
A. BDM scratched / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee (33/1), Tiger Roll (9/2)
#3 General Principle (33/1), Anibale Fly (12/1), Abolitionist (33/1), Vintage Clouds (14/1)
B. BDM scratched / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 General Principle, Ms Parfois (25/1), Anibale Fly
#6 Abolitionist, Rathvinden (12/1), Pleasant Company (33/1), Folsom Blue (40/1)
C. BDM runs / GS or better:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Abolitionist, Vintage Clouds, Rathvinden, Pleasant Company
D. BDM runs / Softer than GS:
#1 Ramses De Teillee, Tiger Roll
#3 Anibale Fly
#4 General Principle, Ms Parfois, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden
#8 Abolitionist, Folsom Blue
A notch below the aforementioned horses in the ratings are those who could run a huge race (depending on weight and underhoof conditions), but are considered Place Potential at best: Yala Enki (if softer than GS, 66/1), Mall Dini (25/1), Walk In The Mill (33/1).
How does this, therefore, translate to the betting slip? (TBC)
In previous grand nationals mate?
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