2019 Grand National

[SeanRock]

If you watch the Ultima back again VC was closing on Beware The Bear at the line. He seemed to land a bit flat footed after the last & lost momentum! This race will have been the long term target for the last few years & he’s got the right profile for me! The link to Many Clouds wasn’t meant literally more tongue in cheek btw.

Most of his poor runs have been on unsuitable soft ground which makes his last run in the Ultima all the more impressive for me.

Edit: re Lake View Lad I would personally prefer to have a 3rd over 4m in the Scottish National as VC does than be going into the unknown with LVL. Auroras Encore finished 2nd in the Scottish National before winning the showpiece for the same trainer.

[The King Pimm]

I’ve backed Gordon Elliot to be the trainer of the GN winner at 11/4 with Skybet Request A Bet. He’s got 13 horses in the Top 40 at present so imagine most of these will turn up on the day. With half a million pound for the winner I think this is a race Elliot & Gigginstown are once targeting with their mob of talented stayers and most of them have a very good chance.

[SeanRock]

Jury Duty @ 40/1 was tempting me a few days ago TKP! His run in the 4miler just put me off he was cooked jumping two out resulting in the Coddfather getting ejected!

[PadstheFish]

Jury Duty @ 40/1 was tempting me a few days ago TKP! His run in the 4miler just put me off he was cooked jumping two out resulting in the Coddfather getting ejected!

Jury Duty has plenty to like about him. None of this is my thinking, but that of the dude behind Polzeath Ratings: https://polzeathratings.wordpress.com

His ratings are so astute he should damned near be the next handicapper. Please note - I'm quoting him below so excuse the first person:

Jury Duty fits the key stats being an 8yo, with 11 runs over fences, running off a nice mark and weight with 4 runs this season, one of them recently. That last point I think may be the key to him, he actually won the American Grand National back in October and had his comeback run at Down Royal at the weekend where he won with a slightly "tender" *cough cough* ride. He probably benefited from the fall of Baie Des Iles but when I look at his form I think he needs a run to be at his best...

His form when he's had a run in the previous 5 weeks over more than 2.5m reads 323121. He was 3rd in the Pertemps won by Presenting Percy, and actually had him behind him when he won at Punchestown in Nov '17 (along with subsequent Grade 1 winner Shattered Love). He does have a bit of a quirk that manifests itself when he is left in front - he got beaten a short head in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown in Apr '16 and perhaps more alarmingly got beaten when left in front at Naas in January last year. It seems then that he needs to be delivered late, and likely benefits from plenty of cover in a big field (bingo!). His form in fields of 20 or more reads 3233.

This then leads onto his likely partner being Robbie Power, who I have as one of the top 5 jockeys around, and indeed has hit the first 10 in the last three nationals with different horses and won the race on Silver Birch back in 2007. Power is close friends with the owners, and actually rode the horse in America in Oct so surely takes the ride here. BIG BIG tick for this.

One quibble could be a stamina doubt. He seemingly got tired on the run in at Naas that time but that was on desperate ground and I wonder if it is more a question of him needing company. I can see Power nursing him into contention steadily and not going for home till between the last and the elbow. On pedigree stamina shouldn't be an issue and he has only had one real go at marathon trips when he was sent off fav for the 4 miler last year. He never really got into a rhythm that day though and I wonder whether better ground may suit as well - he looks to have quite a smooth action to me anyway.

He is currently 33/1 first 6 with Paddy Power, and has been confirmed with this race as the target. That makes some appeal to me for all that we'll probably get a few extra places come the day (but I can see him being sub 20/1 by that stage). To tie it all together, one of the syndicate that owns him passed away last year so there won't be a dry eye in the house and the National will have its "story" to go with too.....

Anyway, more work still do on this but this one making more and more appeal to me

-----------------------------

Speaking of Baie Des Iles who gets a quick mention above, she's another horse one can conceivably make a case for, but ONLY with Bet365 who have gone NRNB (50/1, 1/4 odds, 5 places). The model isn't as strong on her this year but then, it's not an infallible thing, and it's undergone some tweaks recently.

With an OR of 142 it's touch and go as to whether she makes the cut, and Ross O'Sullivan hasn't revealed whether she's intended to go, either.

She's now eight years old (like 3 of the previous 4 winners), and was tanking along like a good thing at Down Royal before falling 3 out, ahead of some good horses such as Jury Duty, Mala Beach and Don Poli, and the RPR for the winner there was a big 160.

She was tired last GN, of course, which isn't ideal, but suffered a massive hampering at the 23rd and was never on terms thereafter (what could have been if that hadn't occurred!).

Collected a lovely prize at Auteuil over an albeit strange 2m6f, but that was under Townend who was also on board at Down Royal.

Model doesn't give her the strongest profile but may yet revisit.

[SeanRock]

Agree with most of that info on Jury Duty Pads. His trip to America for the American Grand National has given me reservations on top of my stamina worries which is why I sided with Vintage Clouds as my decent e/w bet. May have a small saver on Jury Duty on the day tho!

Your in depth views on the race have been a joy to read! Feel free to get involved on the other forums you clearly know your onions!

[The King Pimm]

Jury Duty @ 40/1 was tempting me a few days ago TKP! His run in the 4miler just put me off he was cooked jumping two out resulting in the Coddfather getting ejected!

I had bet Outlander, Shattered Love, A Toi Phil and Alpha Des Obeaux Antepost and then looked again at the line up and was amazed at the number of Elliot horses in the top 40 and whilst all these horses except Tiger are big odds I’m staking my bet of Elliot’s/Gigginstown tactic with the Irish National where they swamp the field, like taking a shotgun to a dart board. I think I’m going to settle on this bet along with RDT, LVL and Abolishist as my e/w bets. The long range forecast looks fairly dry so apart from course watering the going should be good to soft which leaves me clueless as to which horses prefer good ground over such a marathon distance????

[Seven Towers]

I've always been interested in "connections" rather than stats and as the issue of pedigree has been mentioned i thought it quite pertinent to bring this up. The last three Grand National winners share a common ancestor who appears in ALL three winning dams sides. He is not to be found all that regularly in pedigrees but will appear more and more in broodmare pedigrees because he is to be found in the stallion Presenting.

So, RELKO is found in Tiger Roll, One For Arthur and Rule The World and with the former two turning up again who else can boast this clearly influential source of stamina?

Monbeg Notorious is one such horse with Presenting as his broodmare sire, so in there you will find RELKO as you will Rathvinden. Rock The Kasbah has him in too.

There are always such a small pool of horses that have him in (though it will get bigger with Presenting such a prolific broodmare stallion) so it is a highly unsusal connection to the last three winners.

The other once to look out for is MENELEK on the dams side. MENELEK produced two Grand National winners in his own right in RAG TRADE and HALLO DANDY. I've noticed that last year's Scottish National winner Joe Farell, Midlands National winner Potters Corner and Eider Chase winner Crosspark all have MENELEK prominently in their dams pedigree.

MENELEK is to be found in The Storyteller and Daklondike (Joe Farrell is unlikely to get a run).

[The King Pimm]

Agree with most of that info on Jury Duty Pads. His trip to America for the American Grand National has given me reservations on top of my stamina worries which is why I sided with Vintage Clouds as my decent e/w bet. May have a small saver on Jury Duty on the day tho!

Your in depth views on the race have been a joy to read! Feel free to get involved on the other forums you clearly know your onions!

Yeah many thanks Pads for the analysis and information, it’s very much appreciated and saves a lot of time having to trawl through the internet, too effort buddy

[SeanRock]

I had bet Outlander, Shattered Love, A Toi Phil and Alpha Des Obeaux Antepost and then looked again at the line up and was amazed at the number of Elliot horses in the top 40 and whilst all these horses except Tiger are big odds I’m staking my bet of Elliot’s/Gigginstown tactic with the Irish National where they swamp the field, like taking a shotgun to a dart board. I think I’m going to settle on this bet along with RDT, LVL and Abolishist as my e/w bets. The long range forecast looks fairly dry so apart from course watering the going should be good to soft which leaves me clueless as to which horses prefer good ground over such a marathon distance????

Most importantly I’d be trying to decipher which horses have been mapped out for Aintree & which are afterthoughts

[billymag]

I've always been interested in "connections" rather than stats and as the issue of pedigree has been mentioned i thought it quite pertinent to bring this up. The last three Grand National winners share a common ancestor who appears in ALL three winning dams sides. He is not to be found all that regularly in pedigrees but will appear more and more in broodmare pedigrees because he is to be found in the stallion Presenting.

So, RELKO is found in Tiger Roll, One For Arthur and Rule The World and with the former two turning up again who else can boast this clearly influential source of stamina?

Monbeg Notorious is one such horse with Presenting as his broodmare sire, so in there you will find RELKO as you will Rathvinden. Rock The Kasbah has him in too.

There are always such a small pool of horses that have him in (though it will get bigger with Presenting such a prolific broodmare stallion) so it is a highly unsusal connection to the last three winners.

The other once to look out for is MENELEK on the dams side. MENELEK produced two Grand National winners in his own right in RAG TRADE and HALLO DANDY. I've noticed that last year's Scottish National winner Joe Farell, Midlands National winner Potters Corner and Eider Chase winner Crosspark all have MENELEK prominently in their dams pedigree.

MENELEK is to be found in The Storyteller and Daklondike (Joe Farrell is unlikely to get a run).

Without blowing smoke here, I was on another site with Seven Towers a few years back and he is well worth a read when it comes to pedigrees over extreme distances.

[downthehill]

I have finally settled on the 3 horses for the race.

My main fancy is NOBLE ENDEAVOR 50/1 EW NRNB (NAP) – I Have backed him loads at 50s EW since his beecher run. If he jumps around and gets a clean run, I really fancy him to be in the mix. He is a well handicapped horse off 150, his run off 154 in the 2017 Irish National giving Our Duke weight was a great performance. He has a massive swing in the weights with General Principle, Alpha Des Obeaux, Abolitionist for this. The Beecher run as only a sighter for him to get used to the fences, and in my eyes the Ultima was the perfect prep, he wasn’t even put in the race by Davy, but ran on strongly after the last when badly hampered by Give Me A Copper. He didn’t have a hard race which is Key, and i’m hoping he will be primed for the big day with Jack Kennedy as his pilot.

YALA ENKI- 66/1 EW NRNB (NB)- Yala Enki ran well in the Gold Cup, having been outpaced for most of the second circuit, he was staying on again towards the end, but Mite Bite hampered him badly after the second last. His run in Welsh National was exceptional under 11’11 going down by 5 lengths to Elegant Escape conceding 3 pounds. He is only 2 pound higher off 156 and will run off 10-12 if Bristol De Mai runs. Any rain will be a massive help as he wouldn’t want it quick, but he has managed to win on G/S ground his season. 66/1 EW NRNB is a very fair price and have had a few decent bets and stuck him EW multiples. One thing we know from his Welsh National run he is quite well Handicapped, he has to give 3 pounds less to RDT who himself is 5 pounds well in. My only concern is whether he recovers sufficiently after his gold cup run, but 66s NRNB is fair and im lumping.

MONBEG NOTORIOUS 80/1 EW NRNB- Just think he is over priced at 80s, he stays well, has a light weight. He ran on very strongly beating Rathvinden & Jury duty at Punchestown last spring. They both have to concede weight to him now and if he comes back to his best he will have a chance. Think this has been the plan since Gordon Elliott highlighted in his stable BF stable tour. Rain would help alot to slow others down as he lacks speed to lay up. He has also won the Thyestes Handicap Chase by 11 lengths

I fancy others, but you cant back them all! They are my 3 bullets, and if one drops out i will back another closer on the day.

Good luck all

[mayo]

I've always been interested in "connections" rather than stats and as the issue of pedigree has been mentioned i thought it quite pertinent to bring this up. The last three Grand National winners share a common ancestor who appears in ALL three winning dams sides. He is not to be found all that regularly in pedigrees but will appear more and more in broodmare pedigrees because he is to be found in the stallion Presenting.

So, RELKO is found in Tiger Roll, One For Arthur and Rule The World and with the former two turning up again who else can boast this clearly influential source of stamina?

Monbeg Notorious is one such horse with Presenting as his broodmare sire, so in there you will find RELKO as you will Rathvinden. Rock The Kasbah has him in too.

There are always such a small pool of horses that have him in (though it will get bigger with Presenting such a prolific broodmare stallion) so it is a highly unsusal connection to the last three winners.

The other once to look out for is MENELEK on the dams side. MENELEK produced two Grand National winners in his own right in RAG TRADE and HALLO DANDY. I've noticed that last year's Scottish National winner Joe Farell, Midlands National winner Potters Corner and Eider Chase winner Crosspark all have MENELEK prominently in their dams pedigree.

MENELEK is to be found in The Storyteller and Daklondike (Joe Farrell is unlikely to get a run).

Interesting thanks seven towers

[The King Pimm]

Yes I agree, very interesting Seven Towers, it would make a good plot to a crime thriller, Relko is the mastermind to behind the whole operation!! I was looking for a justification to have one more bet and you’ve just made my mind up on Rock the Kashba cheers

[billymag]

7Towers what chance do you give Jury Duty of staying the trip please pedigree. Hes come top of my stats but, he doesnt scream National winner to me, not convinced 4 miles is what he wants, many thanks

[Seven Towers]

I wish I knew Billy! His damsire Broken Hearted was the sire of Numbersixvlverde but the thing with N6VV was that he stayed because of the masses of stamina influences on his own damside. He had a triple winning Grand National stallion VUlGAN in his pedigree. The other significant horse that had Broken Hearted as the damsire was/is old slowboat and Welsh National winner Emperors Choice but again he had a GN winning stallion and Eider Chase winning stallion BUCKSKIN in him plus Random Shot who was in my namesake's pedigree Seven Towers.

The pedigree of Jury Duty doesn't scream Grand National winner to me but neither did Ballabriggs'. Quite interesting that the last three winners have been by 120+ rated top class Flat performers. The shape of things to come possibly.