ELEGANT ESCAPE 2019/2020 - The Road To Gold Cup glory.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

When the Legend himself has won The Betfair Chase then he will have two huge pointers that he is the gild cup winner.

1) In the last 25 years All 3 horses who carried over 11 stone with a 150+ rating in winning the welsh national and ran in the gold cup won the gold cup. All of them. Thats a huge pointer to the gold cup winner.

2) If the champ lands the betfair chase on saturday then the team will also point to the fact that the 7 winners of this race has produced 3 gold cup wins in Kauto twice and Imperial Commander. Bristol was placed in a gold cup. Cue Card would have won the gold cup but for falling. Both Kingscliff and Silvianco conti both vied for favouritism in the gold cup though kingscliff got injuree and never made it. Conti fell as 2nd fav for the race.

The champ must become the gold cup favourie after he wins this race. The case for EE 2020 gold cup champion will be over whelming after this win.

[archie]

Alternatively, no horse has finished second in the Charlie Hall and gone on to win the Gold Cup in the same season. Easy game these stats.

It doesn't mean that you don't have a good bet for Saturday though.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Im not big on stats to be fair as no horse had done anything til they did it. Stats are always there to be broken and are constantly changing.

No horse won a gold cup off the back of a listed win at tramore round 2m 5f either before Al Boum did it last year.

Stats are only ever a guide and are always there to be broken.

[archie]

Maybe you should copy that last post to your Lostintranslation thread.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

The stats regarding Lostintranslation I would regard as a stronger guide because they are showing us that inexperienced horses tend to struggle in races like this. This is a reliable stat as to win a grade 1 race of this nature then experience is a big plus and its a very hard thing to do. Though its possible to do and if Lostintranslation did win this race then there would at last be some substance to his gold cup price, at present he looked good under zero pressure jumping the countries easiest fences beating a nothing horse (in gold cup context) in Count Merebel. Kildisart is a good horse but the trainer stated he needed the run and it was only being used as a ladbroes trophy warm up. He was never put in the race as they didnt want to win so the Kildisart form line from Carlisle is meaningess.

A useless stat would be 'favourites have a strong record in this race' as just because punters got it right for the last 10 years in a row in a race that bears no relevance to the chance of an outsider not winning.

Ultimately you can use or ignore stats to suit most aguements.

I think 11 of the 14 betfair chase winners had already won a grade 1. I chose to not include that stat (though thats not a strong stat as with so many multiple winners of this race by default most would have been grade 1 winners already as they won this race and then won it another 3 times in Kautos case).

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

11 of the 14 winners had already won a grade 1 chase.

With Kauto winning 4, Bristol winning 2, Silvianco Conti winning 2 and cue card winning 3 then you have to ignore the fact that 11 of 14 had already won a grade 1 .

With the multiple winners you should only include their first run in this race with this stat so the true statistic is

4 out of 7 winners had already won a grade 1
which means 3 of the 7 winners were having there first ever grade 1 win.

So although most will take that stat and cross out the horses such as Elegant Escape who has never won a grade 1. It is in fact almost just as likely to be won by a horse who has never won a grade 1 before.
The lesson to learn here is dont rule out either a previous grade 1 winner or a horse who has yet to win a grade 1.

Thankfullly Im on the greatest staying chaser since kauto star so stats dont need to concern me with The Champ.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

https://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/11865037/elegant-escape-to-bypass-betfair-chase-at-haydock

Joe Tizzard should be sacked by Colin if the champ doesnt take part at Haydock.

[archie]

Joe is the power behind the throne now.

I'm genuinely sorry for any bets that go west but, if he's close to having a chance of winning the Betfair, he will p*ss up at Newbury off 160.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

This article shouldnt be believed with its outrageous headline.

Joe always plays bad cop. Lets break down what Joe has actually said here.

"Elegant Escape is unlikely to take his chance in Saturday's Betfair Chase,"

The use of this word is not definitive.

"As trainer Colin Tizzard already has Lostintranslation for the Haydock Grade One, another run in a handicap looks likely"

The same word in reverse designed to cause confusion. Colin only entered Elegant Escape in the betfair chase yesterday. Does Joe expect us to believe that they have only just realised they have 2 horses in the race. They had 2 in 24 hours ago when Colin entered them.

"If Elegant Escape doesn't go on Saturday, he will probably got to Newbury," said assistant trainer Joe Tizzard."

Take strong note of the words in bold. They dont match what that headline claims.

"I think something would have to drop out for Elegant Escape to go on Saturday. "

He thinks. Its outrageous comedy. Funnily enough something will drop out his name in Altior so he is actually saying the champ will go.

The coral sponsored Tizzards at it again. Colin entered him in thr betfair chase and thats surely where he will go. Even the bookmakers arent taking this article seriously and havent reacted.

Scandalous headline from Sky.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Reminds me of when they pretended days before cheltenham that if they could book a top class amateur jockey for the 4 miler they would proabably go there.

They knew full well that no top class amateur hadnt already been booked and none were available.

All games. Days later 100% going to RSA.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Joe is the power behind the throne now.

I'm genuinely sorry for any bets that go west but, if he's close to having a chance of winning the Betfair, he will p*ss up at Newbury off 160.

The only 2 horses in recent times to win this race off 160+ were Denman and Bobs Worth both gold cup winners.

If the champ does end up in Ladbrokes and wins off 160 he will become the new favourite for the Gold Cup.
Victory in either race will see that happen. I still think he runs at Haydock though.

And Colin is most definitely the boss. Joe is the crazy kid. Colin knows best.

[Quevega]

I would never ask the Tizzards for directions.
Although an average run on the Ladbroke may well help with his mark for the National.
And if he were to win, then it's a nice race to win.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Gold cup horse. Goes nowhere near the national.

The Tizzards are greedy, they want the million pound bonus. Both horses will run the same as they ran both Thistlecrack and Native River in it last year.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Native River is Tizzards national horse.

[Lobos]

Joe is the power behind the throne now.

I'm genuinely sorry for any bets that go west but, if he's close to having a chance of winning the Betfair, he will p*ss up at Newbury off 160.

Absolutely this. It looks a VERY poor Henn. EE could easily go one better than last year in this. He is by far the classiest horse left in it.