Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe 2020

[Kevloaf]

I am not sure what you are giving me credit for as I don't deserve any for your 20/1 Love. Although I was quibbling the 8/1 I would be quite happy with 20/1.

Your post about the markets not yet being formed and the weekend providing clues

[Kevloaf]

Cashed out all 3 from the Derby for 95% - no need to be on any of them now. (English King, Mogul and Russian Emperor)
Added to cashed out Frankly Darling for 75% its....

Total loss of -0.8 points


Left with Love at 20/1 (1.25 pts e/w)




Ghaiyyath at 25/1 still to run tomorrow.



Quite pleased with the plan overall. Could have gone better I suppose but we'll see where we are this time tomorrow.

Ghaiyyath is now 16/1 with 365 ..... so even in defeat, he won't get pushed out past the original price I wouldn't have thought!

[Quevega]

I ended up backing Santiago for this with 365, so cheers for adding.
25-1.
The Derby was a mess, and whilst Serpentine could be very good.
There's also a chance that the form will not work out as it looked dubious for obvious reasons.
Actually think Serpentine is more of a ledger horse. I'd rather back him for that than the Arc, put it that way.
Basically O'brien's got shitloads of options, and could easily have three or four runners in both races - Arc & Ledger.
I think Love might be better than all of them though.

[Kevloaf]

3 and a half week gap between St Leger (Thursday 10th September) and Arc (Sun 4th Oct)

I hope Love takes in both.

Aidan doesn't mind giving his fillies and mares busy campaigns.




You're right, he will have loads of options, and I can't imagine him going single handed into any of them.

[Kevloaf]

Have added Raabihah before she runs in the Diane at (14:55)

33/1, hopefully wins but shouldn't get pushed out too much after if not.

We'll see.

[Kevloaf]

Ghaiyyath is now 16/1 with 365 ..... so even in defeat, he won't get pushed out past the original price I wouldn't have thought!

He's in to 8/1 with them. I'll leave the 25/1 that I have. Wouldn't be my first pick but a decent each way price.

Have added Raabihah before she runs in the Diane at (14:55)

33/1, hopefully wins but shouldn't get pushed out too much after if not.

We'll see.

Can cash this one for for 100%, she's into 25/1 with 365 and I don't want to rush into cashing out. The Arc probably still the plan so I may well be ahead of her SP and I will potentially get a 'free shot' at her in a trial race where she could run well, as if she doesn't do well they'd likely only push out to 33/1 again.

[Kevloaf]

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Just looking at the market now as it's forming again.... They may have pushed Japan out a bit too far. They were making excuses for him pre-race too (same as with Enable yet she's stayed around 9/2 and Japan has gone from circa 10/1 to 20/1 in places) He was only beaten a Head today by her...

Given that he was 4th last year, that's not the worst bet I've seen. In fact, I'm going to add him as well 1 pt e/w at 20/1 (part at 22/1) - he has less than 2L to find on her from last seasons Arc, so 4x the price is too big IMO.

The cashout with PP is 100% too at the moment.

[Kevloaf]

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Current ante post position = -0.8 pts

Live bets: 9.2 pts.

Love 20/1 (1.25 pts e/w)
Ghiayyath 25/1 (1 pt e/w)
Raabihah 33/1 (1 pt e/w)
Fleeting 180/1 (0.7 pt win)
Japan 20/1 (1 pt e/w)

[Saxon Warrior]

-----------------------------------------------

Current ante post position = -0.8 pts

Live bets: 9.2 pts.

Love 20/1 (1.25 pts e/w)
Ghiayyath 25/1 (1 pt e/w)
Raabihah 33/1 (1 pt e/w)
Fleeting 180/1 (0.7 pt win)
Japan 20/1 (1 pt e/w)

Good book Kev.

Are 365’s cashouts still low, on the likes of Ghaiyyath, even if the price has crashed?

I noticed my 25/1 Oaks bet on Love, went from 95% cashout (even though she was 11/10) on Friday, to 10x my initial stake cashout on Oaks day itself.

I’m wondering now if all their cashouts stay low until raceday, then reset themselves much higher on race day, if you have them at a much better price than the raceday odds.

[Quevega]

Good book Kev.

Are 365’s cashouts still low, on the likes of Ghaiyyath, even if the price has crashed?

I noticed my 25/1 Oaks bet on Love, went from 95% cashout (even though she was 11/10) on Friday, to 10x my initial stake cashou 9n Oaks day itself.

I’m wondering now if all their cashouts stay low until raceday, then reset themselves much higher on race day, if you have them at a much better price than the raceday odds.

Mine did exactly the same.

[Saxon Warrior]

Mine did exactly the same.

It’s good to know the cashout strategy change, which seems to have happened post-Cheltenham.

It’s also still good to know we can have full (near full cashout) on our selections, if they’re priced the same, or shorter.

[jack1092]

Kev, you making a book makes me slightly intrigued about trying one.

I don't have your 20/1 on Love, f'ing lovely.

I took 8s after the race.

Today's Diane actually made me considering adding Peaceful, 50s on betfair, main issue is how likely she is to show up there. I think she'd stay a mile 1/2. Love + Magician ahead of her.

Im going to take the available on Franconia as well- 270. Now, chances of her running here are pretty big, but she's 11/8 during the week + at Enable's age, who knows? She might not improve for today (likely she will). If that happens there's a tiny squeak we could see Franconia end up here. Logician also another one that's ahead of her. Lucky it's tiny money!


Love 8/1 (win) 15pts
Peaceful 50.0 (win) 2pts
Raabihah 41.5 (win) 2pts
Franconia 270.0 (win) 2pts


I'll maybe add a couple more and diversify the book away from 3yo fillies They can't + won't all show up.

Currently my fun book.

[kinloch brae]

Quite some weekend for all of those who have supported Ghaiyyath and Love.

I wasn't surprised Ghaiyyath won today but I shall still be very surprised if he is good enough to win an Arc. I would say it is by no means certain he heads in that direction. If he heads for York and looks short of pace would you still want him for an Arc? I know there were excuses for Enable but my guess would be that she is past her best.

On the other hand ability wise you would think Love has every chance but that said she will have to cope with both ground and whatever the draw throws at her. On the plus side it might be a small field. After today how many of the french are going to turn out? Victor Ludorum came to win his race and didn't; Pao Alto seemed to have left the speed he had previously shown at home and the least said about Ocean Atlantique the better. I think Raabihah should have won the Diane - surely Crowley is 1/2 length better than Demuro - but on that evidence she is no superstar. Did they all have an off day together? I doubt it.

It is a shame that Japan are not sending over their best because surely this year would provide them with a decent opportunity.

[thorne365]

I know there were excuses for Enable but my guess would be that she is past her best.

I've always wondered (but done no proper analysis yet) why on the flat people talk about middle aged horses (5/6+?) as past their best, but NH they're still considered progressive. Is it actual fact - maybe something to do with bodies being more worn down from running earlier in their life (like some french NH breds) - or simply that we don't get to see many top quality horses in training on the flat for long so don't have the data readily available to form opinions?

[Middle_Of_March]

It’s a shame the Japanese possibly won’t be able to bring Almond Eye over as she’d be the top of my list for this at 12s