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Epsom Festival (sort of!)

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  • Epsom Festival (sort of!)

    Outside of Cheltenham, my biggest focus of the year goes onto Epsom with it being my local track.

    It’s not really Epsom Festival, but I couldn’t think of a better way to phrase the title!

    Here’s what my Friday looks like:

    2.00 - Purple Reign - 6/1 - A chance taken based on Hannon usually targeting his most forward 2yo at this race in recent years. It looks tougher than previous years, but Hannon seems to prepare his younger horses for undulations better than most.

    2.35 - Gossiping - 11/1 e/w - Tough handicap, so you have to look for an each way price. Gossiping is well drawn, running well and if back to his 2017 form, has one more big run before reaching his peak rating.

    3.10 - Old Persian - 3/1 - Before Old Persian was supplemented for the race, Salouen was the bet here. However, Old Persian is a genuine Group 1 horse over this distance which may cause Salouen to fall short again. The lone concern is how he acts on an undulating track.

    3.45 - Borodin - 10/1 e/w - A step up in trip and cheekpieces to try and eek out some improvement. This looks a tough handicap, so a bigger price is taken for the e/w money.

    4.30 - THE OAKS - Peach Tree - 33/1 e/w
    I decided to focus on an un-memorable winner of the Oaks in Was (2012).
    She ran in the Blue Wind Stakes in that year as did Delphinia who was looking like my bet until I looked again at Peach Tree.
    Peach Tree went off 7/2 that day, Delphinia 14/1. Both met trouble in-running and Peach Tree wasn’t exactly thrashed about by Seamie that day.
    My early thought was to back both of them each way, but with Donnacha on board, I’m going to chance him on the full sister of last year’s 5th place.
    Aidan’s fillies can improve a stone off their first run of the season, she is one of two Galileo’s in the field and will get a good ride off Donnacha.
    Of the favourites, i would prefer Pink Dogwood based on her form.

    5.15 - Angel’s Hideaway - 2/1 - She has the class edge on the field as well as the fillies allowance. The favourite is being well backed but he has to step out of handicap company.

    5.50 - Corazon Espinado (Nap) - 6/1 - Holds excellent form figures at the track for a local trainer. Well drawn, won here last August off 2lb lower as well as a 2nd place off a 5lb higher mark.

  • #2
    I like your thoughts & analysis, I’m pretty clueless on the flat so happy to follow your selections CPC

    Comment


    • #3
      Morando looks overpriced tomorrow.
      Looked a much improved horse at Chester and despite differing rides given to him and Kew Gardens.
      If you knew nothing other than watching that last race you would be hard pushed to say the result will be different this time.
      And de Sousa rides Epsom better than anyone IMO.
      Ew bet all day long for me.

      Comment


      • #4
        I’m there too tomorrow. Love Oaks day.

        2:00 - Pinatubo @ 10/3 & 13/8 (10/3 on Wednesday - couldn’t believe the price)

        2:35 – History Writer @ 8/1 E/W & Hortzador @ 14/1 E/W

        3:10 – Lah Ti Dar @ 9/2 & Old Persian (Saver at 7/2)

        3:45 – Mountain Angel @ 5/1 & Setting Sail @ 4/1

        4:30 – Maqsad (NAP) @ 12/1 antepost (and a bit on Frankellina at 30.0 on the exchange)

        5:15 – Angels Hideaway @ 9/4

        5:50 – Ripp Orf @ 5/1 & Corazon Espinado @ 6/1


        Bigger bets in bold

        Comment


        • #5
          Epsom.

          Double

          3.10.Lah Ti Dar.. unpl
          4.30.Muqsad.. unpl
          singles & double.

          Good luck all.
          Last edited by kensland; 1 June 2019, 05:42 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            I have had a third bet on the Oaks today.

            My first was Ante Post during winter FRANKELLINA 40/1
            My second was MAQSAD 9/1 as soon as it was confirmed she would run at Epsom, and not in a France.
            Today I have added PEACH TREE at 33/1 Each Way (36.75/1 WH price boost). Her form is solid, not much off the market leaders, a Donnacha gets the ride, and she may get to ride close to the pace, at the price she is the most interesting for an on the day bet.
            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

            Comment


            • #7
              Epsom.

              Lucky 15

              2.35.Masham Star.. unpl
              3.45.Mountain Angel.. 1st
              5.15.Angel's Hideaway.. unpl
              5.50.Ripp Orf.. unpl

              Good luck all.
              Last edited by kensland; 1 June 2019, 05:43 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Take a bow CPC, 2 solid selections so far!!!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                  Take a bow CPC, 2 solid selections so far!!!
                  Fingers crossed it can last!

                  Shame I haven’t had a placepot.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Well done Cpfc. Nap landed and an 11/1 winner to accompany it. Top punting

                    MoM knocking winners in left right and centre too.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Any selections, Naps for tomorrow??

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                        Any selections, Naps for tomorrow??

                        Available on his newly opened tipping line, only £50 a month.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Epsom.

                          Lucky 15

                          2.00.The Trader.. 2nd
                          2.35.Awesometank... 2nd
                          3.30.Bye Bye Hong Kong.. unpl
                          5.50.Spanish City

                          Good luck all.
                          Last edited by kensland; 1 June 2019, 03:48 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by giantchelsea View Post
                            Available on his newly opened tipping line, only £50 a month.
                            Only open two days a year!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I got home quite late last night but happy with the day’s work. It’s easily paid for another day there, so no complaining from me. A little more difficult today but nice to see some of my favourite flat horses again.

                              2.00 - Politicise - 5/1 - Stepping up in distance with first time cheek-pieces. Bred to be better and should be suited by 10 furlongs based on that and has looked in need of extra distance.

                              2.35 - Anna Nerium - 5/1 - The favourite has issues and doesn’t win enough to be that price. Anna Nerium runs her best races on undulating tracks and came second in this race last year

                              3.10 - Bye Bye Hong Kong - 11/4 - Three year olds rarely run in this race but get a 12lb weight allowance from the older horses and is already rated the same as the favourite who is also an improver. The trainer also has a strong record in the race.

                              3.45 - Epsom Dash - Duke of Firenze 8/1, Muthmir 11/1 (both e/w) -
                              Both horses are drawn well.
                              One of my favourite horses, Duke of Firenze won this 6 years ago and came 6th last year off 17lb higher and 3rd the year before off the same mark. He has won his last two races and seems to be back to somewhere near his best.
                              Muthmir was not far from a Group 1 horse in his prime and will love the ground. Unknown how he will handle the track but if he retains his old class, he should go close in a race that will suit his running style.

                              4.30 - THE DERBY - Circus Maximus 16/1 e/w, Japan 12/1 e/w.
                              I can find flaws in every horse in the race so I’ve taken a punt on two at double figures. The favourite could be special but is unproven on the ground. Telecaster will find it very difficult to win from Stall 2. I really like Broome but his price is a little short, even compared to Madhmoon who beat him as a 2yo but, he might not stay the Derby Distance.
                              Circus Maximus won well at Chester and looks like the distance will suit, the addition of cheek pieces will help. Incredibly well bred and Frankie rides so he will shorten in the betting.
                              Japan was my pick for the race at the start of the season. He’s had an interrupted season and only has one start where he was outpaced before staying on at the end, showing signs of lack of sharpness. I’ll take a chance that he improves 7-10lb on that which would put him closer to the favourites.

                              5.15 - Aquarium - 8/1 e/w - He is well drawn and won his last race at Chester. Ran well previously at Epsom as well which leaves no doubt on if he handles the track. Another of my favourite horses runs in this in Fire Fighting who I would’ve backed but for drawing Stall 1 which is a killer in the 1m4f races!

                              5.50 - Squats - 10/1 e/w - The usual charge to end the meeting, so take the chance that a trainer switch and 2nd time out will get him closer to his best. He usually wants 7 furlongs, but a faster run race should suit him staying on from off the pace from Stall 1.

                              NAP: Duke of Firenze 7/1

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