2025 Novice Chasers

[Runragged]

I think Michael O’Leary has fallen out of love with the NHC. Over the last 10 years they've sent 7 runners down the NHC route between 2015-2020, with only 1 runner in the last 4 years. That was Run Wild Fred, at which point Gordon said (in November pre Cheltenham, 'I think the National Hunt Chase could be written all over this horse. Michael O’Leary might have different ideas and it’s a long time from here to March.'). He's made a point of saying in recent days 'The Cheltenham Festival should be about quality, it should be about Grade 1s and quality horses, not more boring handicaps which benefit nobody except bookmakers'. He's a bitter man who holds a grudge and I can see him living up to those words, even though the NHC isn't a Grade 1. You make a good point re the Irish National and I think the risk with Stellar Story, aside from the obvious as to whether or not he's good enough, is that he could be one of those horses that misses Cheltenham altogether. That being said, Michael O’Leary has sent 14 horses down the BANC route and it's a race they aim their better ones at. Given the level he ran to over hurdles I'd be surprised if he didn't blow a mark of 145 fairly quickly tbh. I love these expensive staying chasers that manage to win at the festival over hurdles when thats not what they were bought for. We see it lots of years. AB 1st, 2nd and 3rd turning into very decent chasing prospects the following season, albeit with a few duds thrown in. All things considered, I think 20/1 is a good price.

Firstly on the progressive RPRs, that's not uncommon as a novice works its way through the grades and the standard gets stronger. His last three races all saw the winner attain an RPR of 151.

I think the whole season will be geared to getting this a good weight in the Irish National. Brown Advisory is a grade 1 but worth £102k to the winner last season. Irish National was 270k Euros! With the great record of Irish Novice Chasers in the race as well then it is a prize they want to win. They went close with Run Wild Fred a few years ago albeit he wasn't an Albert Bartlett winner. Wouldn't be surprised if they still took in the BANC as a nice prep for it though. Not convinced it has the class to compete in the highest grade barring a slog on soft ground. Should be able to gauge after a race or two what the intention will be with the horse for the rest of the season.

[charlie]

Firstly on the progressive RPRs, that's not uncommon as a novice works its way through the grades and the standard gets stronger. His last three races all saw the winner attain an RPR of 151.

I think the whole season will be geared to getting this a good weight in the Irish National. Brown Advisory is a grade 1 but worth £102k to the winner last season. Irish National was 270k Euros! With the great record of Irish Novice Chasers in the race as well then it is a prize they want to win. They went close with Run Wild Fred a few years ago albeit he wasn't an Albert Bartlett winner. Wouldn't be surprised if they still took in the BANC as a nice prep for it though. Not convinced it has the class to compete in the highest grade barring a slog on soft ground. Should be able to gauge after a race or two what the intention will be with the horse for the rest of the season.

Yes it's common progression, but the fact it culminated in a festival win and respectable level post festival was the point I was driving at.

The prize money angle is a fair one. With over 5 weeks between races so he could take in both to be fair.

Could be a Don Poli type. Lots of class winners of the BANC, lots of out and out stayers too.

[Runragged]

Yes it's common progression, but the fact it culminated in a festival win and respectable level post festival was the point I was driving at.

The prize money angle is a fair one. With over 5 weeks between races so he could take in both to be fair.

Could be a Don Poli type. Lots of class winners of the BANC, lots of out and out stayers too.

Obviously with the Turners and NHC being handicaps then we could see a bigger field BANC which in turn could lead to the profile of the winner being more of a staying type as opposed to having a bit of pace about them like recent winners.

[JackieMoon33]

Stellar Story only ran in the Albert because Croke Park was pulled. Might be something in that perhaps with regards to how they are rated at home.

Stellar Story also wasn’t Jacks pick on the day either. But Jockeys can get it wrong from time to time.

[JackieMoon33]

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.

Duplicate post

[JackieMoon33]

One of my main bets the Saturday after Cheltenham finished. Had thought there would be a chance he could end up in the Turners but no chance of that now. All systems go for the Arkle i'd say. He is a big lad too with pace. He is right up there as one of the main darts. Gordon isn't afraid of taking Mullins on. I would also say there is half a chance Gordon might even leave his horses a bit undercooked like Willie did last season after seeing the Cheltenham results. He will still go to Down Royal mob handed but i reckon they won't be as fit as they usually are.

Gordon changed to that method last year but still couldn’t land many blows against Mullins when it mattered most.

[Quevega]

https://www.racingpost.com/news/ireland/leading-arkle-fancy-firefox-set-to-spearhead-exciting-team-of-novice-chasers-for-gordon-elliott-aae5s6d5F7KK/

Elliot's likely novice chasers,
No real surprises from whats been discussed but FYI

[Monty's Pass]

I know he's not going to be a novice this season but has anybody heard anything regarding the well being of Indiana Dream? Definitely one I'm looking forward to seeing again with a view to the Ryanair although 16's doesn't appeal at this stage.

im sure he'll get a mention in the imminent stable tour but couldn't find any news online.

[darlojim]

I know he's not going to be a novice this season but has anybody heard anything regarding the well being of Indiana Dream? Definitely one I'm looking forward to seeing again with a view to the Ryanair although 16's doesn't appeal at this stage.

im sure he'll get a mention in the imminent stable tour but couldn't find any news online.

What is something that is more brittle than glass?

He's made of that stuff

Simply not an antepost proposition whatsoever - shame as he seemed hugely talented.

[Monty's Pass]

What is something that is more brittle than glass?

He's made of that stuff

Simply not an antepost proposition whatsoever - shame as he seemed hugely talented.

Ah made out of Weetabix... shame. Hopefully he can make the track this side of Christmas and one to keep a close eye on towards the spring if staying sound.

[Guinness Village]

Just loving Firefox for arkle. He’s much more of a chaser than ballyburn.

[charlie]

Just loving Firefox for arkle. He’s much more of a chaser than ballyburn.

Re Ballyburn, do you mean Firefox is much more of an Arkle type? I agree, but you'd be hard pushed to find many horses bred better for chasing than Ballyburn, but his future lies over much further IMO.

Firefox is interesting but he's 8/1 already ffs. Gordon name checking the race must be whats done it because you wouldn't look at his exploits over hurdles and think he should be a single figure price would you? Kudos though if you are on at bigger prices!

It's nice to know they are thinking Arkle, but I'd rather chance something at a bigger price that I know has more ability than Firefox.

Take IEP for example. He's 10/1 for an Arkle. Firefox couldn't crack Slade Steel or Mystical Power over 2m whereas IEP ran 3L up State Mans arse in a G1. If they both improved for a fence IEP would wallop Firefox out of sight IMO.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is we don't know what is going to go where yet. I take the view that Ballyburn is a false fav and I make that case in my diary if you want to read more.

[Craigy14]

Re Ballyburn, do you mean Firefox is much more of an Arkle type? I agree, but you'd be hard pushed to find many horses bred better for chasing than Ballyburn, but his future lies over much further IMO.

Firefox is interesting but he's 8/1 already ffs. Gordon name checking the race must be whats done it because you wouldn't look at his exploits over hurdles and think he should be a single figure price would you? Kudos though if you are on at bigger prices!

It's nice to know they are thinking Arkle, but I'd rather chance something at a bigger price that I know has more ability than Firefox.

Take IEP for example. He's 10/1 for an Arkle. Firefox couldn't crack Slade Steel or Mystical Power over 2m whereas IEP ran 3L up State Mans arse in a G1. If they both improved for a fence IEP would wallop Firefox out of sight IMO.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is we don't know what is going to go where yet. I take the view that Ballyburn is a false fav and I make that case in my diary if you want to read more.

Think Firefox has always been single figures Charlie, awful price imo. Slade Steel and Impaire Et Passé by far better prices for me at this stage. I actually hope Slade Steel is beaten and I’ll go back in, provided they stick to 2m and the manner of the defeat of course, as we all know HDB horses can be beaten through the season and he peaks them cherry ripe for Cheltenham.

[Yosser]

Think Firefox has always been single figures Charlie, awful price imo. Slade Steel and Impaire Et Passé by far better prices for me at this stage. I actually hope Slade Steel is beaten and I’ll go back in, provided they stick to 2m and the manner of the defeat of course, as we all know HDB horses can be beaten through the season and he peaks them cherry ripe for Cheltenham.

I got 12/1 last March. I assume that was the ceiling price for him. It's still terrible but wasn't ever likely to grow. That said, i also took 12/1 for Jonbon for the Ryanair and was crowing to my mate who doesn't do antepost telling him how he would be scrambling around on the day looking for crappy doubles to get Jonbon onside. Egg on face

Still not giving up on it though. I am going to hold on to it.

[Odin]

I got 12/1 last March. I assume that was the ceiling price for him. It's still terrible but wasn't ever likely to grow. That said, i also took 12/1 for Jonbon for the Ryanair and was crowing to my mate who doesn't do antepost telling him how he would be scrambling around on the day looking for crappy doubles to get Jonbon onside. Egg on face

Still not giving up on it though. I am going to hold on to it.

14s was available. I don't necessarily think it is/was a brilliant price, but he's the only one of the likelier types who is absolutely guraranteed to be a 2m chaser based on the way he ran and his breeding, so it wasn't a bad price. I actually don't think 8s is a stinker either but I would be looking at IEP/Slade Steel over it.

We can form an opinion on Ballyburn/IEP but neither is guaranteed for multiple reasons. Slade Steel's breeding isn't that of a chaser, Sir Gino stays hurdling surely, Irish Point is a lesser version of Ballyburn/IEP (can do 2m or 3m), Majborough too year, Mystical Power stays hurdling, Mirazur West is 16s with nothing like the profile of Firefox, It's For Me has been off for half a year and then we are at 25/1+