Lessons Learned from Cheltenham 2024

[amtrakker]

Hi all, haven't seen any post reviewing the festival and as a (semi retired) project manager, always like a lessons learned (what worked, what needs improving etc. ) Here's my thoughts from last month and welcome your feedback and ideas on what to focus on next year, based on experience of this years festival.

2025 Cheltenham

Only back horses in the week before Cheltenham, use free bets to build up balances, NOT antepost, NRNB (had a lot of non runners!)

Only take bets on outsiders before 6 day decs for NH Chase, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, BANC, Mares Chase to get 3 places

Look at handicap plots - Brazzil, Skelton

Back horses dropping back in trip to Ryanair from Gold Cup

Avoid Henderson (& Nicholls) horses unless definitely declared on the day

Only back horses proved in trip in the Albert Bartlett

Ignore ground for class horses in handicaps - follow Mullins or Skelton in the County Hurdle

Back outsiders on the day - at SP to get extra places

Look at what Jane Mangan tips for the Foxhunters

Bet on whatever Paul Townsend is riding in a handicap

[FinalFurlong91]

Don't bet antepost in the Albert bartlett the main one for me

Throw away pts every year

Fancied horses rarely win it, so betting in advance is pointless

[Eggs]

…..look for value in ‘any race’ market, especially using Hills double odds boost. Being selective in TWAF offers can boost book, ‘small stakes, high return’.

[Eggs]

Don't bet antepost in the Albert bartlett the main one for me

Throw away pts every year

Fancied horses rarely win it, so betting in advance is pointless

….and yet Stellar Story was highlighted last April for this at 33-1. The irony is, I think his SP was around 33-1 anyway but it was a good AP selection on here.

[FinalFurlong91]

….and yet Stellar Story was highlighted last April for this at 33-1. The irony is, I think his SP was around 33-1 anyway but it was a good AP selection on here.

Yup I took 40.0 on the exchange on the day so it was a bad antepost selection despite winning

Which sums up betting long range on the race

[Quevega]

….and yet Stellar Story was highlighted last April for this at 33-1. The irony is, I think his SP was around 33-1 anyway but it was a good AP selection on here.

A good antepost selection is one that is backed at a bigger price than SP and ideally goes off a lot shorter in price than what you backed it at.
Win or Lose. IMO

Stellar Story was one of many pointed out as a potential player for the Bartlett, and so it was a good selection in that respect. Especially being so early on.

Dinoblue was a better shout but wasn't successful in the end.

The reason I say this is that some horses are more obvious shorteners than others, and in this regard Stellar Story was less likely to shorten from the Autumn than Dinoblue was. IMO.

[Istabraq]

[TD="align: left"][SIZE=15px]Ignore ground for class horses in handicaps - follow Mullins or Skelton in the County Hurdle

Hate to jump on a newbie, and apologies for doing so, but the pair won 8 of the previous 9 renewals before this year, now 9/10, so the signs have been there for a while.

Potato race is an enigma, anyone pulls the winner out at any point fair play, brute of a race, almost as bad as the Grand Annual !...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good thread amtrakker

For me I'm trying to follow these two rules in all my ante post betting, not just Cheltenham:

1. It's not just from 2024 but in general, it's best to trust your eyes and not your ears. For example, I FOMO'd into countless WPM Supreme horses this year because I read or heard glowing reports. I need to cut that out as it's an awful habit to get into.

2. Only bet ante post if you believe you are beating the SP by a decent margin. Value is very subjective but I often read/hear things along the line of 'I'm not backing horse X because he's too short, so I'm putting him in a multiple'. If the horses price is too short, compounding bad value with other selections still means it's bad value. I can be guilty of it too at times but I'm trying to cut them out as best I can.

[Quevega]

Good thread amtrakker

For me I'm trying to follow these two rules in all my ante post betting, not just Cheltenham:

1. It's not just from 2024 but in general, it's best to trust your eyes and not your ears. For example, I FOMO'd into countless WPM Supreme horses this year because I read or heard glowing reports. I need to cut that out as it's an awful habit to get into.

2. Only bet ante post if you believe you are beating the SP by a decent margin. Value is very subjective but I often read/hear things along the line of 'I'm not backing horse X because he's too short, so I'm putting him in a multiple'. If the horses price is too short, compounding bad value with other selections still means it's bad value. I can be guilty of it too at times but I'm trying to cut them out as best I can.

Yeah, point 2 is something many on here can try and understand better. Especially antepost.

Getting a poorly priced horse "on side" in October (for example) with a successful first leg of a double/roll up is not a good thing.

And a good definition of a poorly priced horse is one that has recently dropped in price for no reason other than it's been mentioned on here in some sort of write up. So if you've missed the 25-1 don't even entertain taking 12-1 or trying to roll it up. You've missed the boat so wait for another, as the room to manouvre has gone in terms of cashout or other factors affecting the horses chances, like form etc.

If the horse looks badly priced in your opinion then don't back it and be as patient as possible, as more often than not, the horse falls out of the picture or the price becomes more backable.
And if not, you can always entertain getting it onside with NRNB or on the day. In roll ups or doubles however you like.

Obviously, on some occasions you'll be wrong and the horses price shortens for various reasons to the point where you have to let it run and it wins.

But I promise you that this is the exception, not the rule. Particularly in most races outside of the 4 championship races. i.e novice races.

Obviously, if you're convinced the price will shorten and can back that up with rationale and thought, then crack on, but at least listen to others who question this, as you might have missed something.

[Ice]

Good thread amtrakker

For me I'm trying to follow these two rules in all my ante post betting, not just Cheltenham:

1. It's not just from 2024 but in general, it's best to trust your eyes and not your ears. For example, I FOMO'd into countless WPM Supreme horses this year because I read or heard glowing reports. I need to cut that out as it's an awful habit to get into.

2. Only bet ante post if you believe you are beating the SP by a decent margin. Value is very subjective but I often read/hear things along the line of 'I'm not backing horse X because he's too short, so I'm putting him in a multiple'. If the horses price is too short, compounding bad value with other selections still means it's bad value. I can be guilty of it too at times but I'm trying to cut them out as best I can.

Couldn't agree more with number 1, it started with mirazur west last march and finished with tullyhill in February, 3 or 4 others in between for good measure !

[Faugheen_Machine]

Couldn't agree more with number 1, it started with mirazur west last march and finished with tullyhill in February, 3 or 4 others in between for good measure !

It's for Me, Daddy Long Legs, Ballyburn are others that immediately spring to mind

[Yosser]

Supreme and Ballymore were my downfall this year also, mainly with Mullins. I hadn't realised it until closer to the time but i had ended up backing Chapeau Du Soliel for the Supreme, Ballymore and Bartlett and went nowhere and did nothing. That was my own fault though, not because of stable tours. I know they held him in high regard last season and thought he would be an 'under the radar' type this season and would be a shortie. I certainly need to be more conservative in the novices department this time around although i was also on the Stellar Story train and was actually my first bet. I should have just left it there I do though however have the same thought process with another one of Mullins' novices. It follows the exact same mould as CDS in Cantico but will only back him for the Bartlett. He screams like a staying type as opposed to a speedy type, though whether he is good enough is another story. I also think there is another potential stayer in his camp in Bunting. Him and Facile Vega will be my only stayers hurdle attempts for Mr Mullins.

One major mistake i made last ante post season was thinking that a horse would come on bundles for a lowly RPR based purely on trainers and owners rather than watching the races properly and seeing what the said horses have actually beaten.

[Istabraq]

Couldn't agree more with number 1, it started with mirazur west last march and finished with tullyhill in February, 3 or 4 others in between for good measure !

If it wasn't so sad I would be laughing loads at this....

[Zachx02]

I mentioned this in my diary but two things come to mind

Actually have a strategy when placing multiples, ive placed quite a lot at this stage with most of them being doubles but instead of being a scattergun approach, they all focus on a select set of horses, your teahupoos, GDCs, el fabiolo etc, and them coupled with a few bigger odds ones in a few multiples such as in my case Impaire Et Passe, Port Joulain and William Munny. And also any multiple which is larger than a double will only be placed using free bets.

Secondly, being more restrictive on roll ups and utilising niche markets, eSports being mine whilst you have many guys who are into the Cycling and NFL.

[Ice]

If it wasn't so sad I would be laughing loads at this....

It was either laugh or cry for me but it's a lesson learnt, i don't really know how i managed to get myself in that situation though !