2024 Gold Cup

[Exar Essay]

There were a few issues with GDC's run in the John Durkan, not least his poor jumping. But regardless, I don't think the race was run to suit . Patrick said that the John Durkan turned into a sprint. And GDC took a long time to get up to speed that day.

I went back and re-watched his previous races too and I'm not sure we've ever really seen him demonstrate a decent sprint. The Gold Cup, he seemed to just ease the already high pace up a notch to see off BMG. At the DRF he looked very workman like in only beating Stattler 8 lengths (even though that was the race that proved he stayed). At Punchestown, although he went with the early increase in pace 2 out, he couldn't kick again and stayed on best to the line snagging BMG.

Even going back to his novice chasing days, I don't think we ever saw a turn of foot. He'd just bowl out in front at his very high cruising speed like in the Turners.

I was lulled in to thinking that his high cruising speed equated to him having a a turn of foot too. That doesn't seem to be the case. When he's stayed on in his races, he's gone for home a way out and normally off an already high pace. Or where he's gone from the flag drop, he's burnt them all off.

I think a championship pace will see the best of him again.

[archie]

It's not possible to be 100% certain that last season's Gold Cup didn't leave a mark on the first 2. Neither is it possible to be certain that Fastorslow is a now 170s horse as some have claimed. However, at this moment in time, I'd say that GDC is the horse most likely to win next March.

In terms of the comparison between the 2 runnings of the Durkan, I think that one needs to take into account the fact that this year's race was run over 3 weeks earlier than last year. In addition, GDC didn't have his first season debut over fences until after Christmas so it's not unreasonable to think that he might have more left in the physical tank. No-one will know about his mental resources until he proves it one way or the other.

We'll learn more about Fastorslow and BMG at Christmas and GDC either at Tramore or the DRF. The prices shouldn't change too much before then and I'm in no hurry to go in again.

[HesTheOne]

Assumptions are made by everyone, all the time, including your good self that connections would have been disappointed.
We'll never know.
My point is based on the fact that Gold Cup winners aren't trained to peak in November, and who knows perhaps last years Punchestown defeat hurt so bad they are deliberately starting Galopin off later, and easier, with a view to make March and April in top form knowing full well that a horse can't maintain top form for 5 months.
By the way I'm not dismissing Fastorslow at all...

Haha touche on the assumptions you got me there.. I’m about to make another one too

I seen someone here talking about how the gold cup training regime could impact horses (think it was in relation to not been as speedy as before) - I have only watched the race once but Galopin looked to only waken up when blue lord came up beside him and the race was turned on, I wonder myself did he think he had another mile to go but it was turned on sooner than he anticipated.

Staggering the amount of lengths he lost jumping alone - if anything it’s bonus points on his engine at start of the season to cancel out the lengths lost.

[Istabraq]

Haha touche on the assumptions

.

We all make assumptions, it's impossible to bet without using them, some will argue they are calculations but I'd say many calculations are based on assumption.

Exar Essay makes a good point, when they go championship pace it's a different game, which is why I find so difficult to rule our promising novices on the back of an unconvincing debut run at no pace...

[opatcho]

I’m onside with Spectre

Two weeks ago, 16/1 other abouts for Fastorslow was the play of you fancied his chances and price.

I’m in the camp that GDC has been tuned in a manner that he is best seen over 3 miles, trainer has done well to settle him down and get the trip

I’m expecting GDC to put in high 170 run in the Gold Cup, he may be able to pass the 180 mark again. I’m fairly confident of this… and thought GDC ran very well the other day. I didn’t expect him to win by miles, the target is the Gold Cup. As soon as I saw 3/1, I backed him and he’ll go into some multiples too.

I do think Fastorslow is a contender, there aren’t many novice chasers that have scored as highly as him on third 3rd or 4th run - and I’d rather back Fastorslow over Gerri C, purely on the basis that I think Fastorslow acts better at Cheltenham than what we’ve seen from Gerri

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[Evesham Road]

Is anyone else thinking about Datsalrightgino for the Gold Cup after his impressive Hennessy win? Obviously he came from some way back to win at his first try over an extended trip. Connections initially mentioned the Grand National but, given he has risen to OR159, are now looking at either the Cotswold Chase or even a King George supplemental entry. Most of the fancy exchange prices have been taken but 66s is available in a place. I think there are worse outsiders than an improving 7yo who has course form and has come on for a trip.

[ComplyOrDie]

Is anyone else thinking about Datsalrightgino for the Gold Cup after his impressive Hennessy win? Obviously he came from some way back to win at his first try over an extended trip. Connections initially mentioned the Grand National but, given he has risen to OR159, are now looking at either the Cotswold Chase or even a King George supplemental entry. Most of the fancy exchange prices have been taken but 66s is available in a place. I think there are worse outsiders than an improving 7yo who has course form and has come on for a trip.

Not for me.

Beating Mahler Mission off levels by 3 3/4 lengths is plenty off what is required in a Gold Cup. Just for some context, Eldorado Allen finished 37 lengths behind Galopin Des Champs in last seasons Gold Cup off levels, and Datsalrightgino beat him by 12 1/2 lengths in the race at the weekend getting 6lbs from him.

[Evesham Road]

Not for me.

Beating Mahler Mission off levels by 3 3/4 lengths is plenty off what is required in a Gold Cup. Just for some context, Eldorado Allen finished 37 lengths behind Galopin Des Champs in last seasons Gold Cup off levels, and Datsalrightgino beat him by 12 1/2 lengths in the race at the weekend getting 6lbs from him.

Thanks for the reply, but my point wasn't the bare form (decent as it is), more the trajectory of the form of a horse who would appear to be improving as a second-season chaser and especially for a trip.

In any case, the other horse in the top four at the weekend was Monbeg Genius, who Datsalrightgino beat 10 lengths, giving him a pound. That same horse was beaten only two lengths in last season's Ultima by Corach Rambler, in receipt of six pounds. So using that form line, Datsalrightgino is two poiunds better than Corach Rambler, who you have backed at 20s...

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks for the reply, but my point wasn't the bare form (decent as it is), more the trajectory of the form of a horse who would appear to be improving as a second-season chaser and especially for a trip.

In any case, the other horse in the top four at the weekend was Monbeg Genius, who Datsalrightgino beat 10 lengths, giving him a pound. That same horse was beaten only two lengths in last season's Ultima by Corach Rambler, in receipt of six pounds. So using that form line, Datsalrightgino is two poiunds better than Corach Rambler, who you have backed at 20s...

Corach Rambler was backed on the basis of his Cheltenham form in general. Think he's 3 from 3 at the course. I still think he's worth backing even off the back of his disappointing runs this season.

Datsalrightgino was PU in the Plate last season. Of course, it is conceivable that he finds plenty of improvement for the step up in trip, but based on the one run in the Hennessy that you yourself have used, off a mark of 148, I just can't be having him.

What price is he, out of interest?

[Runragged]

Is anyone else thinking about Datsalrightgino for the Gold Cup after his impressive Hennessy win? Obviously he came from some way back to win at his first try over an extended trip. Connections initially mentioned the Grand National but, given he has risen to OR159, are now looking at either the Cotswold Chase or even a King George supplemental entry. Most of the fancy exchange prices have been taken but 66s is available in a place. I think there are worse outsiders than an improving 7yo who has course form and has come on for a trip.

Think he was favoured by the way the race was run plus being a horse likely held up is very hard in a Gold Cup. More chance they try get his mark down as much as possible for a tilt at the Ultima in my view which is a race Corach Rambler has managed to win twice despite being ridden patiently. Anyway, I have come round to the idea of Mahler Mission being worth a bet in the Gold Cup at 50/1. Won't bore too much on this thread as to why but he had a lot go against him in the Coral Gold Cup so did incredibly well to finish as close as he did. Needs to improve around a stone, but that is possible as a 7yo when racing in graded company at his correct trip.

[Spectre]

Is anyone else thinking about Datsalrightgino for the Gold Cup after his impressive Hennessy win? Obviously he came from some way back to win at his first try over an extended trip. Connections initially mentioned the Grand National but, given he has risen to OR159, are now looking at either the Cotswold Chase or even a King George supplemental entry. Most of the fancy exchange prices have been taken but 66s is available in a place. I think there are worse outsiders than an improving 7yo who has course form and has come on for a trip.

I took the 66/1 with Unibet ER. It's much too big for a horse that surely has to go there now. It won't be a deep Gold Cup, and he's the just the sort of progressive type that can do well. Clearly very unexposed over 3 miles plus, and he got the trip very well at Newbury. They can ride him more forward next time and that should mean there's more to come. I also used the same formline logic as you to justify a bet.

[Evesham Road]

I took the 66/1 with Unibet ER. It's much too big for a horse that surely has to go there now. It won't be a deep Gold Cup, and he's the just the sort of progressive type that can do well. Clearly very unexposed over 3 miles plus, and he got the trip very well at Newbury. They can ride him more forward next time and that should mean there's more to come. I also used the same formline logic as you to justify a bet.

Yeah I just think there's a good chance he goes to the Cotswold and that race isn't always the deepest; a win there and he's probably 16s and being touted as possibly 'best of the British' and 'the improver'. I'm happy to take, and have taken, a chance at this stage.

[Lobos]

Mouse Morris has been forced to rule Gentlemansgame out of his Christmas objective in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown due to a minor foot injury.

[Quevega]

Mouse Morris has been forced to rule Gentlemansgame out of his Christmas objective in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown due to a minor foot injury.

Gerri may run savilles then you'd think, explains why he's drifted for the KG.

[Lobos]

Gerri may run savilles then you'd think, explains why he's drifted for the KG.

Yep.

GMG to Cotswold Chase