2024 Novice Chasers

[Quevega]

You could say that about any distance trend if you want. But I assume from your response it's not many.

How many BANC winners have never won over shorter than 2m 7f then if you prefer, in any discipline? Again probably not many...

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ran in the BANC like. But he won't be winning it. NHC he'd have a chance of winning.

It's not 4 miles anymore by the way.

Great point on the naming of the race by the way.

There aren't many races at over 3 miles for novices in any case. Which makes the stat mostly redundant.
It's frowned upon.

It's the four miler and the other race is the RSA.
Forever.

I'm building a book and have not backed him yet.
I've not backed Flooring Porter either, and he'd be first in line if I backed either.
But I wouldn't be too quick to rule them out just yet as charlie has a point with some winners of this race. It can sometimes go to the unglamorous, gutsy, less fancy rated types on the day.

[Quevega]

This probably says a lot!

It says he's an honest lad. Maybe a bit naive.
And/or knows he's unlikely to get the ride again.
And perhaps why he hasn't had a grade 1 winner yet.

[Benjy23]

It says he's an honest lad. Maybe a bit naive.
And/or knows he's unlikely to get the ride again.
And perhaps why he hasn't had a grade 1 winner yet.

Nothing wrong with a bit of honesty. Could do with more of it. Could help some avoiding losing money...

[Benjy23]

There aren't many races at over 3 miles for novices in any case. Which makes the stat mostly redundant.
It's frowned upon.

It's the four miler and the other race is the RSA.
Forever.

I'm building a book and have not backed him yet.
I've not backed Flooring Porter either, and he'd be first in line if I backed either.
But I wouldn't be too quick to rule them out just yet as charlie has a point with some winners of this race. It can sometimes go to the unglamorous, gutsy, less fancy rated types on the day.

I remember The Real Whacker v Geri well. And I see why people are trying to learn from that mistake and fair play to them... But they're taking it to the extreme here.

Even those 'unglamorous' types have shown they are capable of winning over shorter trips though. Which would suggest you also not a bit of tactical speed at some stage of the race, if not a finishing kick.

To be honest you'll be able to trade off if he wins today, so it's a fair enough bet if that's your intention. Or I guess if you're building a book. I'd rather just back him today and walk away with any potential winnings though...

[Quevega]

I remember The Real Whacker v Geri well. And I see why people are trying to learn from that... But they're taking it to the extreme here.

Even those 'unglamorous' types have shown they are capable of winning over shorter trips though. Which would suggest you also not a bit of tactical speed at some stage of the race, if not a finishing kick.

To be honest you'll be able to trade off if he wins today, so it's a fair enough bet if that's your intention. Or I guess if you're building a book. I'd rather just back him today and walk away with any potential winnings though...

We had this conversation with runragged the other week.
The race is littered with runners with no tactical speed, or at least are not known for it.
For several years around 10 years ago, being a slow boat was the go to trend.

Boston's Angel
Bob's Worth
Lord Windermere
OFaolins boy
Don Poli
Blaklion

All needed every yard of 3 miles. And none could be described as having tactical speed high up on their list of attributes.

[Benjy23]

We had this conversation with runragged the other week.
The race is littered with runners with no tactical speed, or at least are not known for it.
For several years around 10 years ago, being a slow boat was the go to trend.

Boston's Angel
Bob's Worth
Lord Windermere
OFaolins boy
Don Poli
Blaklion

All needed every yard of 3 miles. And none could be described as having tactical speed high up on their list of attributes.

I'm not going to look them all up but from what I know...

Bobs Worth beat Cue Card over the intermediate trip. And Don Poli won a Martin Pipe. They're both stayers for sure but also had proven class / speed (or whatever you want to call it).

Even Blaklion had some two and a half form, as I looked him up when he was thrown in the conversation earlier.

The others I may be getting lucky by not checking

Stay Away Fay is the type of stayer that you could be adding to that list next year. Another who also had the ability to win over shorter but who's main asset is clearly staying.

[Brooksie]

We had this conversation with runragged the other week.
The race is littered with runners with no tactical speed, or at least are not known for it.
For several years around 10 years ago, being a slow boat was the go to trend.

Boston's Angel
Bob's Worth
Lord Windermere
OFaolins boy
Don Poli
Blaklion

All needed every yard of 3 miles. And none could be described as having tactical speed high up on their list of attributes.

Yeah the tactical speed angle is just a bit meh in my view. What was the tactical speed angle last season? Sir Gerhard... The first 4 home aren't really known for their turn of foot are they? Gerri, an Irish National winner and Bronn. Personally I think you want a horse that can maintain a really strong gallop, the sort of gallop that will be able to draw the finish out of the quicker horses and quick enough to put the slower more stamina laden horses jumping under pressure. Flooring Porter and Broadway Boy would fit that profile for me. If Broadway Boy backs his previous two runs up today with a from the front victory you'd have to start taking him seriously. The experience he's building up over course and distance will serve him very well. Not to dissimilar to how they campaigned Imperial Commander during his novice chase season albeit over shorter.

[Quevega]

I'm not going to look them all up but from what I know...

Bobs Worth beat Cue Card over the intermediate trip. And Don Poli won a Martin Pipe. They're both stayers for sure but also had proven class / speed (or whatever you want to call it).

Even Blaklion had some two and a half form, as I looked him up when he was thrown in the conversation earlier.

The others I may be getting lucky by not checking

Stay Away Fay is the type of stayer that you could be adding to that list next year. Another who also had the ability to win over shorter but who's main asset is clearly staying.

Of course most had form over shorter.
They are good quality horses, you have to be to win a grade one, and any trainer worth his salt will not normally send a novice horse over maximum trips throughout a career.
They will all have won at shorter or had good form over shorter, especially in lower grade races or over hurdles etc.

But, no one is going to convince me that any of those horses had tactical speed/class.

They are in the other category, brave staying types with big hearts that will run forever at a decent pace, but not classy enough to win grade ones at 2 miles. Maybe on really testing ground over 2 and a half.

[Benjy23]

It's not a tactical speed angle to try to find the quickest horse in the BANC That would be ridiculous. It's an angle of ruling out the no hopers...

Gaelic Warrior would've been this years quickest. And is one I've vocally never liked for the race for completely different reasons.

That's a response to Brooksie post for clarity... Took me two minutes to type

[Quevega]

It's not a tactical speed angle to try to find the quickest horse in the BANC That would be ridiculous. It's an angle of ruling out the no hopers...

Gaelic Warrior would've been this years quickest. And is one I've vocally never liked for the race for completely different reasons.

That's a response to Brooksie post for clarity... Took me two minutes to type

Yeah, I understand.
And in no way am I saying I think Broadway Boy is a likely winner.
I was playing devils advocate.
Wouldn't rule him out though, is all I'm saying as he's similar to many winners profiles.

Basically = Mucky, crappy, stupid horses.
Joe Bugner, Frank Bruno types

[AaronLad]

Hunters yarn up ok and walking around after that fall

[Benjy23]

Of course most had form over shorter.
They are good quality horses, you have to be to win a grade one, and any trainer worth his salt will not normally send a novice horse over maximum trips throughout a career.
They will all have won at shorter or had good form over shorter, especially in lower grade races or over hurdles etc.

But, no one is going to convince me that any of those horses had tactical speed/class.

They are in the other category, brave staying types with big hearts that will run forever at a decent pace, but not classy enough to win grade ones at 2 miles. Maybe on really testing ground over 2 and a half.

I'm with you on that bunch. They were definitely primarily stayers. I'm just saying they had relative speed compared to Broadway Boy - who was the starting point for the conversation.

Broadway Boy got beat in a 2 and a half mile hurdle by a horse rated 105 over hurdles. Then they thought straight up to 3m at Bangor was his level... Admittedly he was a non runner and then actually finished 2nd over 2m 4f, where he's probably run to about 110... and he's since never been seen over shorter than 2m 7f and is thought to already want 3m 2f on soft ground in the first half of his novice chase campaign.

He just doesn't have the back form to fit into the list of previous BANC winners in any shape for me.

I think we're more or less on the same page to be honest.

GL to his backers though, and I hope he wins today.

[Eggs]

Hunters yarn up ok and walking around after that fall

….good news, it looked a nasty one.

PP have pushed out to 50-1.

[Kevloaf]

….good news, it looked a nasty one.

PP have pushed out to 50-1.

33/1 again now

[charlie]

How many BANC winners run over 3m 2f prior to the BANC?

NHC all over him imo.

How many NHC winners win from the front?

On his last start BB posted an RPR of 153 in a race TRW won (144) before winning the BANC. After that Nigel said:

As it stands I think his credentials (for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase) are superb. It does look like he will stay all day, but I think we will stay at three miles for the moment as he seems to have a bit of speed, but let's see as he has plenty of time

I suppose we'll learn a bit more in a few mins.