2024 Novice Hurdlers

[charlie]

Something a little bit different, but had a bit of time whilst on holiday last week and looked into the sires of the runners for the Supreme.

I only looked at the top 6 in the market, but Firefox comes out well on top, being by Walk In The Park.

Walk In The Park has produced Douvan, Min, Jonbon & Facile Vega. The other sires of the likely runners in the race haven't come close to this level.

Tullyhill will struggle if his sires record is anything to go by. For starters the majority are mid trip to staying types, the last Martaline to try the Supreme was the ill-fated Mighty Potter, he got pulled up. Willie said he thought Tullyhill was a stayer at the beginning of the season too.

Mystical Power is by Galileo, again a sire that generally produces his best progeny around the mid-trip, has won the Baring Bingham with Windsor Park. His last runner in the Supreme was High Definition last season, but he ended up 7th of 14, well beat by Marine Nationale. It's worth pointing out that Galileo has done well with juveniles over 2m, Brazil and Celestial Halo both winning at the festival over 2m.

Slade Steel, Jeriko Du Reponet & Mistergif are harder to judge, being by a fairly new sires in Telescope, Choeur Du Nord & Zarak, resepctively. Slade Steel has a speedy, mid-trip pedigree, and showed plenty of grit to win over 2m4f at Naas, if he's anything like his sire he may just prefer a bit of better ground too. Jeriko Du Reponet comes from a sire who won two of his three starts as a juvenile hurdler in France, but his two best progeny have produced their best efforts over fences and further, so far. Mistergif has Zarak as his sire, a seriously well bred flat horse over who performed best over 1m2f-1m4f, and a bit like Slade Steel, may prefer some better ground, despite hosing up on 'Heavy' on debut for Willie, maybe showing his own versatility.

My 1-2-3 based purely on sires alone:

1. Firefox
2. Slade Steel
3. Mistergif

I'm intrigued to see if this stands it's ground by this time tomorrow.


Edit: I completely forgot to mention, this is only relevant to the sires and not the dams of these animals, which can have a big impact as well. Some will also prefer the 'eye test' as opposed to even caring about breeding, which is absolutely fair enough.

Great post COD.

Still think Firefox is a place lay.

[Ray]

I cant get on board with firefox at all! Hes not show any improvement if racing post ratings are anything to go by, his win against a 10% ballyburn is the only thing keeping his price like it is, mid 130s runs dont scream supreme type!

[darlojim]

Mistergif just wins doesn't he?

[JackieMoon33]

Mistergif just wins doesn't he?

Anyone sat on a 1000/1 ticket would say that

[Dandrew99]

Anyone sat on a 1000/1 ticket would say that

But he just wins, doesn't he?

[kinloch brae]

I am assuming that Gidleigh Park is heading for the Albert Bartlett? I ask the question because there has seemingly been no market support. He has just remained around 8/1 for several days. You would have hoped to see something after the trainer didn't end up pressing the wrong button this morning.

I would like to think he has every chance on Friday, but I do have big reservations about the jock, and the type of ride he might receive.

The negatives he has expressed about the Albert Bartlett, and talking up the horse's speed over stamina are not exactly a plus. He has to go out on Friday believing he is actually wrong, and this IS the right race, and the extra distance is a plus, not a negative. If he decides to drop the horse out then for me it becomes a pointless exercise.

When Gidleigh Park nearly got caught out last time that was down to the jock's poor pace judgement. He simply didn't go fast enough so when the horse didn't pick up as he expected turning into the straight he found himself outpaced by Lucky Place. Fortunately, the horse bailed him out on the run in. At least that scare might have made the horse a little more battle hardened. There's a chance that form might get a timely boost in the Coral Cup.

[AaronLad]

I am assuming that Gidleigh Park is heading for the Albert Bartlett? I ask the question because there has seemingly been no market support. He has just remained around 8/1 for several days. You would have hoped to see something after the trainer didn't end up pressing the wrong button this morning.

I would like to think he has every chance on Friday, but I do have big reservations about the jock, and the type of ride he might receive.

The negatives he has expressed about the Albert Bartlett, and talking up the horse's speed over stamina are not exactly a plus. He has to go out on Friday believing he is actually wrong, and this IS the right race, and the extra distance is a plus, not a negative. If he decides to drop the horse out then for me it becomes a pointless exercise.

When Gidleigh Park nearly got caught out last time that was down to the jock's poor pace judgement. He simply didn't go fast enough so when the horse didn't pick up as he expected turning into the straight he found himself outpaced by Lucky Place. Fortunately, the horse bailed him out on the run in. At least that scare might have made the horse a little more battle hardened. There's a chance that form might get a timely boost in the Coral Cup.

Harry fry has on a couple of occasions said the horses future will be over 3 miles in time.

Agreed he has spoken of the horses speed, but it hasn't ever came over his stamina, maybe this horse is just blessed with both.

Think the jockey knows he misjudged the race last time, but winner and runner up came out with credit in my book, putting several lengths between themselves and the others after the last.
Gidleigh park wasn't stopping another 3 furlongs will be perfect.

[Hurricane fly]

This rain is lending me towards Slade Steel as my in the day horse

[charlie]

This rain is lending me towards Slade Steel as my in the day horse

Yeh will help him and hinder Firefox IMO.

Hopefully MP can get the job done but I think the dark horse in the conditions is JDR.

[ComplyOrDie]

Something a little bit different, but had a bit of time whilst on holiday last week and looked into the sires of the runners for the Supreme.

I only looked at the top 6 in the market, but Firefox comes out well on top, being by Walk In The Park.

Walk In The Park has produced Douvan, Min, Jonbon & Facile Vega. The other sires of the likely runners in the race haven't come close to this level.

Tullyhill will struggle if his sires record is anything to go by. For starters the majority are mid trip to staying types, the last Martaline to try the Supreme was the ill-fated Mighty Potter, he got pulled up. Willie said he thought Tullyhill was a stayer at the beginning of the season too.

Mystical Power is by Galileo, again a sire that generally produces his best progeny around the mid-trip, has won the Baring Bingham with Windsor Park. His last runner in the Supreme was High Definition last season, but he ended up 7th of 14, well beat by Marine Nationale. It's worth pointing out that Galileo has done well with juveniles over 2m, Brazil and Celestial Halo both winning at the festival over 2m.

Slade Steel, Jeriko Du Reponet & Mistergif are harder to judge, being by a fairly new sires in Telescope, Choeur Du Nord & Zarak, resepctively. Slade Steel has a speedy, mid-trip pedigree, and showed plenty of grit to win over 2m4f at Naas, if he's anything like his sire he may just prefer a bit of better ground too. Jeriko Du Reponet comes from a sire who won two of his three starts as a juvenile hurdler in France, but his two best progeny have produced their best efforts over fences and further, so far. Mistergif has Zarak as his sire, a seriously well bred flat horse over who performed best over 1m2f-1m4f, and a bit like Slade Steel, may prefer some better ground, despite hosing up on 'Heavy' on debut for Willie, maybe showing his own versatility.

My 1-2-3 based purely on sires alone:

1. Firefox
2. Slade Steel
3. Mistergif

I'm intrigued to see if this stands it's ground by this time tomorrow.


Edit: I completely forgot to mention, this is only relevant to the sires and not the dams of these animals, which can have a big impact as well. Some will also prefer the 'eye test' as opposed to even caring about breeding, which is absolutely fair enough.

This weather will probably put pay to any of the above, so now it feels like it wasn't worth posting

Unfortunately the stamina laden pedigrees will be brought into play, and on this basis I couldn't be as dismissive of Tullyhill now. Mighty Potter ran on Good/Soft and was probably part of the reason he couldn't go the clip in the Supreme that year.

I'm not sure 'Soft' would be too much of a negative for any of the above, but 'Heavy' will have an impact, I'm sure of it.

[FinalFurlong91]

I'd be massively against mystical power

Hard pulling strong travelling speedy types very often wheel spin when the ground gets like this

I always say you need a tractor not a ferrari in the mud

Tullyhill is definitely a tractor, big high rounded knee action

But will he take half the hurdles with him?

If he was a good jumper he'd be a certainty in these conditions but he's not so will just have to see what happens

[FinalFurlong91]

Sweated up
pulled hard
Bungled the last

Won anyway

Serious horse

And ballyburn is clearly a monster

[Bonjers]

Jesus you'd want to be getting out of anything coming from Seven Barrows. Desperate.

Lovely performance from SS.

[DenmanSacre]

Won it well after not jumping the last well, travelled too strongly and pulled away up the hill.

[Hurricane fly]

Nice second burst after the last, would think it's Turners next year