2024 Novice Hurdlers

[Dandrew99]

The graded hurdles have to be analysed with how they were run & the fields that contested the races rather than on merit of their status. The Lawlors was the best novice trial of the season along with the DRF 2m. There was no hiding place & Gordon’s were under a cloud at the time. JDR hasn’t had a proper truely run race to be judged yet.

I agree, the original point of the post is asking how Firefox was essentially second favourite.

SS and JDR have solid graded form, although I personally think the English novice form ain't much. Tullyhill won a novice hurdle that could easily be graded quality IMO, the field was probably better than what MP beat. MP was arguably the most visually impressive of them over 2m (excluding Ballyburn)

Firefox has only won a maiden... Doesn't deserve to be 7/2 when all bar MP are bigger prices.

[SeanRock]

I agree, the original point of the post is asking how Firefox was essentially second favourite.

SS and JDR have solid graded form, although I personally think the English novice form ain't much. Tullyhill won a novice hurdle that could easily be graded quality IMO, the field was probably better than what MP beat. MP was arguably the most visually impressive of them over 2m (excluding Ballyburn)

Firefox has only won a maiden... Doesn't deserve to be 7/2 when all bar MP are bigger prices.

But the timing of Tullyhill’s win in being the last run before Cheltenham would leave question marks for me as to how valid the form is. Visually it looked that way to me anyway.

[Dandrew99]

But the timing of Tullyhill’s win in being the last run before Cheltenham would leave question marks for me as to how valid the form is. Visually it looked that way to me anyway.

All entitled to see a race how they like... I was personally quite impressed. And the fact they put him in the champion bumper in Ireland last year over Ballyburn shows they clearly think there's a hell on an engine under there... And Townend seemingly choosing him over Ile Atlantique has to speak volumes too.

Out of interest, how would you price up the top few?

[Lobos]

Tullyhill is a big winner for me but I do think he was flattered by his latest win with those in behind just not running their race and he really doesn't jump well enough to win a Supreme. He'll lose lengths during the race over the obstacles and you just cannot afford to do that and get away with it in G1 company.

[TCH29]

I agree, the original point of the post is asking how Firefox was essentially second favourite.

SS and JDR have solid graded form, although I personally think the English novice form ain't much. Tullyhill won a novice hurdle that could easily be graded quality IMO, the field was probably better than what MP beat. MP was arguably the most visually impressive of them over 2m (excluding Ballyburn)

Firefox has only won a maiden... Doesn't deserve to be 7/2 when all bar MP are bigger prices.

It’s a bit misleading to say “only won a maiden”. He’s the only horse to beat Ballyburn, widely considered the best novice hurdler around at any distance.

All this chat of Ballyburn not being fit or Mullins yard being out of form then feels like a) a bit generous to Ballyburn, and b) a bit unfair on Firefox. He beat him. He beat him easily. And he beat him for gears. It wasn’t ground or jumping. He was just much quicker, and we’re talking about 2m hurdlers.

Remember Firefox entered the season as a talking horse and Elliot’s big novice hope.

I get it. But then I think Firefox wins. I think he’ll track Tullyhill, and take it up after the second last.

[Kevloaf]

It’s a bit misleading to say “only won a maiden”. He’s the only horse to beat Ballyburn, widely considered the best novice hurdler around at any distance.

All this chat of Ballyburn not being fit or Mullins yard being out of form then feels like a) a bit generous to Ballyburn, and b) a bit unfair on Firefox. He beat him. He beat him easily. And he beat him for gears. It wasn’t ground or jumping. He was just much quicker, and we’re talking about 2m hurdlers.

Remember Firefox entered the season as a talking horse and Elliot’s big novice hope.

I get it. But then I think Firefox wins. I think he’ll track Tullyhill, and take it up after the second last.

Got to say I think that's how I see it too. It's the unpopular view, but most people seem adament Ballyburn would reverse the form and therefore compeltely dismiss it as form, which doesn't make loads of sense to me.... especially when some give a 7L defeat to Ballyburn as now the strongest form on offer.

It's too dismissive of what we actually saw on the day. Too many excuses. People are willing to forgive Ballyburn his run against Firefox, but not forgive Firefox for his defeat, despite actual tangible reasons for Fixefox's that came out after, and Ballyburn just "beaten for fitness"

[Dandrew99]

It’s a bit misleading to say “only won a maiden”. He’s the only horse to beat Ballyburn, widely considered the best novice hurdler around at any distance.

All this chat of Ballyburn not being fit or Mullins yard being out of form then feels like a) a bit generous to Ballyburn, and b) a bit unfair on Firefox. He beat him. He beat him easily. And he beat him for gears. It wasn’t ground or jumping. He was just much quicker, and we’re talking about 2m hurdlers.

Remember Firefox entered the season as a talking horse and Elliot’s big novice hope.

I get it. But then I think Firefox wins. I think he’ll track Tullyhill, and take it up after the second last.

Well it's not misleading at all, it's a fact Has any horse ever won the Supreme after only winning a maiden?

Anyharminasking is the only horse to beat Constitution Hill, does that mean he should win this year's Champion Hurdle? (Excessive example I know).

I've never said he doesn't have a chance, beating Ballyburn even at 70% is good form. Ballyburn has clearly improved massively from that though, so taking that form literally is a bit of a reach IMO. Firefox hasn't shown any signs of improvement as yet, so he's probably got a stone to find minimum. He might have that in him, he might not.

My problem is that he's second favourite over horses with solid graded form, which doesn't make much sense to me. I think he should be around 6/1, which still says he has a solid chance. I have a double of Firefox and Ballyburn which pays for my festival, so I'd definitely be happy if you're right!

[charlie]

Firefox seems popular but I don't see it. People are making too much of him beating Ballyburn IMO and in an open race they are finding that form and using it to make the case he's a bet. IMO he beat an undercooked Ballyburn with race fitness on side in a sprint and has had 2 opportunities to run to higher level since then and hasn't. Has posted respectable RPR's of 135, 137, 136 which looks to me to be his level. I really like JDR who has posted 120, 132 and 133 so that take on Firefox might seem hypocritical, but, one is 3/1 the other is 7/1 and crucially, I think Firefox has been given more than one opportunity in truly run races to show us what he's capable of whereas JDR has been involved in messy races that haven't been as truly run and comes with far more upside IMO. You'd have Nicky over Gordon any day of the week in getting one ready for the Supreme, so if I had to pick one of those two it would be JDR. Both very good jumpers.

Mystical Power v Tullyhill is a tough one. Both wouldn't he the best jumpers. The above two are far better jumpers. Tullyhill was good LTO but he got a freebie on the front vs not much. On a line through Jigoro not much splits him with MP who showed an impressive turn of foot whereas Tullyhill was more workmanlike. Perhaps it's not fair, but I cant shake Willie getting Tullyhill wrong. Started him over 2m6f thinking he's a stayer. That didn't work and he lost at 1/8. He then went back down to 2m and posted an RPR of 131 jumping poorly, which was meh. He was given a really good ride LTO on heavy and used his stamina to control the race and showed notable improvement, but that was his third run. MP's run in the Moscow Flyer was basically his seasonal debut and he looked impressive. That turn of foot was pretty good and he's posted an RPR of 144 which was good without being great in the context of the MF. You would like to think there is significant improvement to come but he doesn't do anything flashy at home (something they keep saying) so if he's not burning up the gallops it might make a large stable market move less likely. Personally, I think Tullyhill will probably prove the best horse in time and over a trip and fence he'll be formidable, but, I think MP will be far better suited to the Supreme and for that reason I think he'll beat his stablemate.

It's an open year. I'd love a JP winner in the opener. Would be great to see. Given the firepower Willie has in the Gallagher you have to assume they think one of theirs is capable of winning and I thought it was interesting that when they broke the Ballyburn news in was contextualised as 'Ballyburn goes Gallaghers whilst MP goes Supreme'. To me thats Willie talking about his best shots in each race and it intimated MP was their best hope not Tullyhill, who he mentioned after saying Paul will probably ride.

[TCH29]

Charlie, am I missing something? Firefox has had 1 run, over 2m4f since beating Ballyburn. He literally hasn’t run again over 2 miles, so he hasn’t had 2 opportunities to show he’s a better 2 mile hurdler than he is rated.

[Irish Rugby]

Firefox seems popular but I don't see it. People are making too much of him beating Ballyburn IMO and in an open race they are finding that form and using it to make the case he's a bet. IMO he beat an undercooked Ballyburn with race fitness on side in a sprint and has had 2 opportunities to run to higher level since then and hasn't. Has posted respectable RPR's of 135, 137, 136 which looks to me to be his level. I really like JDR who has posted 120, 132 and 133 so that take on Firefox might seem hypocritical, but, one is 3/1 the other is 7/1 and crucially, I think Firefox has been given more than one opportunity in truly run races to show us what he's capable of whereas JDR has been involved in messy races that haven't been as truly run and comes with far more upside IMO. You'd have Nicky over Gordon any day of the week in getting one ready for the Supreme, so if I had to pick one of those two it would be JDR. Both very good jumpers.

Mystical Power v Tullyhill is a tough one. Both wouldn't he the best jumpers. The above two are far better jumpers. Tullyhill was good LTO but he got a freebie on the front vs not much. On a line through Jigoro not much splits him with MP who showed an impressive turn of foot whereas Tullyhill was more workmanlike. Perhaps it's not fair, but I cant shake Willie getting Tullyhill wrong. Started him over 2m6f thinking he's a stayer. That didn't work and he lost at 1/8. He then went back down to 2m and posted an RPR of 131 jumping poorly, which was meh. He was given a really good ride LTO on heavy and used his stamina to control the race and showed notable improvement, but that was his third run. MP's run in the Moscow Flyer was basically his seasonal debut and he looked impressive. That turn of foot was pretty good and he's posted an RPR of 144 which was good without being great in the context of the MF. You would like to think there is significant improvement to come but he doesn't do anything flashy at home (something they keep saying) so if he's not burning up the gallops it might make a large stable market move less likely. Personally, I think Tullyhill will probably prove the best horse in time and over a trip and fence he'll be formidable, but, I think MP will be far better suited to the Supreme and for that reason I think he'll beat his stablemate.

It's an open year. I'd love a JP winner in the opener. Would be great to see. Given the firepower Willie has in the Gallagher you have to assume they think one of theirs is capable of winning and I thought it was interesting that when they broke the Ballyburn news in was contextualised as 'Ballyburn goes Gallaghers whilst MP goes Supreme'. To me thats Willie talking about his best shots in each race and it intimated MP was their best hope not Tullyhill, who he mentioned after saying Paul will probably ride.

Have to agree with this. Good analysis. Hope it's centre stage circa 1.40 on Tuesday afternoon.

[Benjy23]

Charlie, am I missing something? Firefox has had 1 run, over 2m4f since beating Ballyburn. He literally hasn’t run again over 2 miles, so he hasn’t had 2 opportunities to show he’s a better 2 mile hurdler than he is rated.

Aye, bit of an issue that.

The conclusion that Jeriko is the play, as I said the other day, is sound though

It's wide open really though isn't it. Could make a case for a bunch of them. And also make negatives for all of them, which is a bit of a waste of time. A good thing for the opening race though. Doubt many will be make or break on it!

[Kevloaf]

Important to remember not to be scared of a drifter in this as well

Shishkin drifted like he wasn't winning it but it was probably just adjusting to his 'correct' price.

With worries about Hendo stable form, even Jeriko could take a walk and be near double figures and that'd be a definite play for plenty.

Firefox drifting to anything near 6/1 should be a play too.




If you were starting right now, I wonder if you could actually get the front 5 covered (JRD / Fire / Tully / MP / SS) for a profit .... you'd need to time things just right but I reckon it'd be do-able!

I can see support and drifts for all of them before the off, as there is nothing standout!

[Lobos]

There will be plenty of offers/boosts about for the Supreme as well in view of it being so open a race so I reckon you are right Kev.

[DenmanSacre]

BHA ratings of note.

Supreme (a fair number no rating as they haven't raced enough)

Mystical Power 148
Tullyhill 153
Firefox (no rating)
JDR 136
Slade Steel 147

24/27 won LTO. 8/10 rated 150+ with 6 rated 153+ (18 horses in that time rated 153+ so 33% strike rate). 7/10 unbeaten.


Gallaghers

Ballyburn 157
Ile Atlantique 148
Predators Gold 150

7/14 won a PTP, bumper and graded novice hurdle. 12/15 top rated or second top rated. 12/15 rated 148+.

Albert Bartlett (not released until Sunday but below is from other races or inferred from other ratings)

Readin Tommy Wrong 149
Dancing City 151 (from PGs rating), maybe 152
Croke Park 143
Captain Teague 142
Gidleigh Park 138
Johnnywho 136
Shanagh Bob 134
Stellar Story 141
High Class Hero ???
Lecky Watson ???

17/19 won or placed in graded novice. 3/5 rated 152+. 16/19 raced in graded novice last time. 16/18 aged 6 or 7. 15/19 1st or 2nd LTO. 8/12 won Irish PTP

[Winging The Last]

I would add to the supreme trends that no horse since 1992 has won the race with any form of headgear on. Tullyhill and Slade Steel both wear tongue-ties.

Also 20/21 winners had a 50% or better record over hurdles. Firefox is 1/3