September ‘23 Yankee

[darlojim]

I suspect that the prices may be gone by the time we get to October's yankee so I'll try one final time.

El Fabiolo (Champion Cahse)
GDC (Gold Cup)
+
any other two.

Go on Archie, what would you have as your next 2 strongest ideas of winners at this very early stage..

[archie]

Go on Archie, what would you have as your next 2 strongest ideas of winners at this very early stage..

If he takes to the discipline, Conflated has to be fancied for the XC. Other than that, I'd probably stick in Constitution Hill in the CH and just do the trebles and fourfold for twice the stake.

[Lobos]

Perhaps have an Archie September

[nortonscoin200]

If you have Fastorslow in one of these before GDC, the plot has been irrevocably lost.

Edit: don't want to sound too aggressive so will add the qualifier, "in my humble opinion".

Always pay close attention to your posts archie but with the greatest respect:

GDC best price 2-1
Fastorslow best price 20-1.

We're still more than six months away from the Festival and that is very short for a Gold Cup favourite - especially one who was beaten more than two lengths at level weights lto by the horse trading at 20-1.

IMHO ignoring the disparity in price between GDC and Fastorslow would be a case of losing the plot.

How many favourites have won the Gold Cup in the last 10 years?

The answer is just 4 - and all bar one of those 4 has started at odds greater than GDC's current price.

The winning favourites were Don Cossack at 9-4, Al Boum Photo 100-30 and A Plus Tard at 3-1.

Galopin Des Champs was still a 7-5 shot on the day he won this time.

Sure, he's the likeliest winner but odds of 2-1 now - that's not the route to a profit in my book.

As an each way proposition Fastorslow is effectively a 5-2 shot to make the frame and finish behind GDC - and you've got the added free hit at the repeat of his Punchestown victory.

Plot not lost my friend, imo

[Ice]

If you want to see him back it up the evidence is there already - just watch replays of his races at the last TWO Festivals.

In my view FASTORSLOW is still a decent price (Hills best at 20-1).

Another worth having in an each way yankee is surely MASKADA at a general 25-1 for the Mares Chase.

In my view she beat Dinoblue fair and square in the Grand Annual - the margin was 6l and Maskada a was giving Dinoblue 2lbs.

It's bonkers that Maskada is more than twice the price of Dinoblue.

I'm not knocking the latter - I've got her in a couple of multiples.

But Maskada has already proved she stays 2.5miles - a winner of a 23k chase on heavy ground at Limerick and poised ( imo) to win a handicap off 11st 11lbs over the same trip at Fairyhouse when falling two out.

She has also shown how well she jumps at the Festival and what a strong finisher she is up the Cheltenham hill.

There's probably more to come as she's only had 4 runs seen teaming up with Henry and surely the MC will be the target now she's been put up 9lbs for her Festival win.

So for me Fastorslow and Maskada are nailed on for a value each way yankee. Two proven Cheltenham performers running over a trip that won't be an issue and both with a pretty obvious target race.

I've got both in an each way lucky along with nick rockett and west balboa, think they're all a decent price.

[somer1]

Thinks we need MoM to push us where to go with this month.

[callhimgamblor]

Too late to get Facile Vega (Turners) in one? Still 9/2 which is a little skinny....

[JackieMoon33]

I’ve seen Qualimita mentioned lots more since the favourable comments at the open day. The general consensus seems to be Champion Bumper rather than MNH due to Gordon’s usual MO. One thing that might have been neglected is, what is the owners usual MO? Robcour have had many decent bumper horses in the past but I’m not sure I recall any of them running at the festival. Food for thought.

[Lobos]

I do not think anyone really knows that she'll go the Bumper route JM . However, based on her age, price tag, experience (or lack of it), Trainers MO including PTP RPR, same sire as Envoi Allen who was also 5 when he ran in the Bumper after having had just 1 PTP run, the Bumper does look more likely than any other race. As they have a very high opinion of her then she's one punters want to get on board early before any Stable Tours/comments come out and her price plummets so the 25/1 Bumper odds were clearly very appealing and offered big returns for very small stakes which is the perfect AP scenario. It could be she goes to the MNH or maybe bypass the Fez altogether or she might turn out a dud but, as with every horse, punters need to make up their own minds , look at what they have Infront of them and either back their judgement or leave it and wait for further clarification which carries the risk of missing out on the price.

[darlojim]

I do not think anyone really knows that she'll go the Bumper route JM . However, based on her age, price tag, experience (or lack of it), Trainers MO including PTP RPR, same sire as Envoi Allen who was also 5 when he ran in the Bumper after having had just 1 PTP run, the Bumper does look more likely than any other race. As they have a very high opinion of her then she's one punters want to get on board early before any Stable Tours/comments come out and her price plummets so the 25/1 Bumper odds were clearly very appealing and offered big returns for very small stakes which is the perfect AP scenario. It could be she goes to the MNH or maybe bypass the Fez altogether or she might turn out a dud but, as with every horse, punters need to make up their own minds , look at what they have Infront of them and either back their judgement or leave it and wait for further clarification which carries the risk of missing out on the price.

Without trying to talk in riddles Lobos, if I was having a bet, I certainly wouldn't be backing for the Mares Novice, and probably wouldn't be backing for the bumper also..

JackieMoon33 point above is really quite relevant. Things can change of course but yeah...

[Benjy23]

Aye, wouldn't be rushing to back her either. The Robcour point is a fair one. I can't think of any Cheltenham Champion Bumper runners.

There's decent options for Mares bumpers these days, if they wanted an easier route for this season but graded races also. DRF Mares bumper and options at Aintree and Punchestown.

[Istabraq]

Aye, wouldn't be rushing to back her either. The Robcour point is a fair one. I can't think of any Cheltenham Champion Bumper runners.

There's decent options for Mares bumpers these days, if they wanted an easier route for this season but graded races also. DRF Mares bumper and options at Aintree and Punchestown.

Good point that, the evolving mares programme os creating improved opportunities for them in mares only races, that bumper at Aintree carries a decent pot I think.
You’d like to think conversations have taken place with Elliott though…

[Lobos]

All very good points but half a point at 25/1 isn't going to break anyone's bank and is worth the risk whatever the outcome. If AP punters took into account all the ifs, buts and maybes and the possibility of injury before placing a bet they'd never place a bet. Waiting until NRNB is the only option if punters want a risk free bet but by then the odds are well gone.

[HesTheOne]

I rewatched one of the Robcour stable tours from the beginning of last year and they talked about a recent change in strategy with their younger horses. All about giving them a year or so off to mature etc. This I feel will apply to both Q and Kala Conti in particular this year..

Reading between the lines from good ol darlojim I have taken back all my bets on her where possible..

See you next season Qualimita you beauty..

focus firmly shifted onto BDA and will be looking at the P2P geldings for champion bumper for Elliott I think..

[Lobos]

Yep, one to think of with 2025 in mind !! Have to be very careful with these half a million pound horses.

Back to the drawing board to find the Bumper winner for next year.