2023 Novice Hurdlers

[Exar Essay]

I like them doubts. The owner one especially.

As a counter point to ComplyOrDie a) we know that the owner is at least willing to take on the boys (a lot aren't); and b) finishing last didn't do Shattered Love any long term harm given that she won the Turners the following year.

[Rooster Booster]

It is the stat, p2p winner, bumper winner, graded hurdle winner that she would meet if winning the solerina that has me worried.
Now someone has pointed out that shattered love, trained by gordon, ran in the ballymore, and surprise surprise, she won a p2p, a bumper and the solerina.
so HDT could quickly become the exact type gordon sends to the ballymore irrespective of whether they are a mare.
Do i think she has a turn of foot? Not exactly. but she's shown enough speed to win a bumper and hurdle race over the minimum trip, so she's obviously quick. And having backed her for the mares novice i'm looking at the 50's for the ballymore with unibet and considering dusting off an old account i haven't used in a while.

Yes I understand I was just trying to understand why you thought the race would be right up her street when the op referenced the need for a turn of foot which some of nicholls fancied placed horses didn’t/don’t possess. I get the trend stuff but a turn of foot is obviously an attribute not a trend. You have answered in that you feel she is obviously quick. I think she is grand but not obviously quick. I do however like your thinking and had had a similar thought myself with her but without any of the trend knowledge.

Unfortunately I don’t have access to a Unibet account as I would have had a nibble ...I am contemplating 20s nrnb as if she did turn up recognising the good reasons why she might not ...that could be seen as a tip in itself. Keep posting your left field thoughts ...it adds value.

[RoadToCheltenham]

Gordon Elliott tells Nick Luck re: Irish Point - "Going to Cheltenham isn't even a definite yet" when discussing his performance in the Lawlor's...

[Brooksie]

Gordon Elliott tells Nick Luck re: Irish Point - "Going to Cheltenham isn't even a definite yet" when discussing his performance in the Lawlor's...

not sure who he's trying to fool, if not injured he'll be on the boat.

[Big Bucks]

Gordon Elliott tells Nick Luck re: Irish Point - "Going to Cheltenham isn't even a definite yet" when discussing his performance in the Lawlor's...

Shite! Thats no good to me. Hopefully it's a bit of a bluff.

He did say yesterday on RTV probably go straight to Cheltenham but needs to speak with owners.

[somer1]

Shite! Thats no good to me. Hopefully it's a bit of a bluff.

He did say yesterday on RTV probably go straight to Cheltenham but needs to speak with owners.

Hes been learning stuff from Mullins

[opatcho]

Re: Ballymore..

Trends which I have documented over the last 5-7 years, its a interesting race in terms of winners as it has some unique trends. Obviously, these trends are there to be broken but but they have been a good method narrow down potential candidates

- PTP winner, ideally RPR around 90
- Bumper winner, ideally over 125 first time out
- First run over hurdles, RPR over 130+, ideally over 140
- Observations, Ballymore winner tends to come out late in the season, December'ish, and only has a handful of runs (2) before going to Fez
- Ideally, something that could easily end up in the Supreme or Ballymore, not a horse that is 50/50 between Ballymore or AB. "Speed over Staying" for Ballymore
- 5 year olds, no age allowance, makes it difficult for them to win this

However, with firm ground and froze meaning a lot of the horses where diverted, I'm going to have to take an expectation of the "run over 2m hurdle first time out" as long as they look like proper pacey types, and not stayers

Note: Faugheen went up to 3 miles, but if I recall there was a season for this - Ruby mentioned something a few weeks ago in terms of why they did this, wasnt it something to do with how keen he was and they wanted to take that edge off him by going over further (??)

This could also be a City Island year or even a Willoughby Court/Neon Wolf year.
I dont think we've seen a Ballymore winning performance yet, and based on my trends above, we may have to wait until end of Jan/early Feb before we see something really stand out.

The ones from Ireland that I'm keeping an eye on are....

- Dark Raven, but I dont like that he's been off a season. Won the same race on boxing day as Sir Gerhard, City Island and Barcardys. Only scored a 134 though first time out. Need more
- Impaire Et Passe, but already mentioned to be running in the Moscow Flyer which is normally points to Mullin's sending them to the supreme. Scored 143, which is very good place to start with, but a 5 year old and can see think he'll be Mullins second horse for Supreme
- Good Land. With the trainer having one for the supreme, this would mean Ballymore for Good Lad. Yeah, was off for 700 days but he's won two races (bumper and hurdle) this season, so any worries around bounce effect have been mitigated. Also reminds me a little of The Nice Guy, older horse (7), quick to get him over hurdles as time is sort of against him. Started off over 2m, unseated jockey there, then ran over 2m 4f. I've backed him whilst the 25/1's are still available on PP
- Be interested to see what runs at Warwick this weekend, and will then look towards the DRF as I think the horse that runs in the 2 miler (sounds like FV will bypass and go straight to Fez) and wins, could be the one to back for the Ballymore

[JackieMoon33]

Re: Ballymore..

Trends which I have documented over the last 5-7 years, its a interesting race in terms of winners as it has some unique trends. Obviously, these trends are there to be broken but but they have been a good method narrow down potential candidates

- PTP winner, ideally RPR around 90
- Bumper winner, ideally over 125 first time out
- First run over hurdles, RPR over 130+, ideally over 140
- Observations, Ballymore winner tends to come out late in the season, December'ish, and only has a handful of runs (2) before going to Fez
- Ideally, something that could easily end up in the Supreme or Ballymore, not a horse that is 50/50 between Ballymore or AB. "Speed over Staying" for Ballymore
- 5 year olds, no age allowance, makes it difficult for them to win this

However, with firm ground and froze meaning a lot of the horses where diverted, I'm going to have to take an expectation of the "run over 2m hurdle first time out" as long as they look like proper pacey types, and not stayers

Note: Faugheen went up to 3 miles, but if I recall there was a season for this - Ruby mentioned something a few weeks ago in terms of why they did this, wasnt it something to do with how keen he was and they wanted to take that edge off him by going over further (??)

This could also be a City Island year or even a Willoughby Court/Neon Wolf year.
I dont think we've seen a Ballymore winning performance yet, and based on my trends above, we may have to wait until end of Jan/early Feb before we see something really stand out.

The ones from Ireland that I'm keeping an eye on are....

- Dark Raven, but I dont like that he's been off a season. Won the same race on boxing day as Sir Gerhard, City Island and Barcardys. Only scored a 134 though first time out. Need more
- Impaire Et Passe, but already mentioned to be running in the Moscow Flyer which is normally points to Mullin's sending them to the supreme. Scored 143, which is very good place to start with, but a 5 year old and can see think he'll be Mullins second horse for Supreme
- Good Land. With the trainer having one for the supreme, this would mean Ballymore for Good Lad. Yeah, was off for 700 days but he's won two races (bumper and hurdle) this season, so any worries around bounce effect have been mitigated. Also reminds me a little of The Nice Guy, older horse (7), quick to get him over hurdles as time is sort of against him. Started off over 2m, unseated jockey there, then ran over 2m 4f. I've backed him whilst the 25/1's are still available on PP
- Be interested to see what runs at Warwick this weekend, and will then look towards the DRF as I think the horse that runs in the 2 miler (sounds like FV will bypass and go straight to Fez) and wins, could be the one to back for the Ballymore

Based on the market, it’s unlikely both those first two trends are going to be met this year.

- PTP winner, ideally RPR around 90
- Bumper winner, ideally over 125 first time out

I’m not even sure there is a horse that will go to post that meets them, let alone be fancied.

This is based in my assumption that both GCW and American Mike will go AB.

[SeanRock]

Impaire Et Passe[/B], but already mentioned to be running in the Moscow Flyer which is normally points to Mullin's sending them to the supreme. Scored 143, which is very good place to start with, but a 5 year old and can see think he'll be Mullins second horse for Supreme

Willies initial comments post race re: Impaire Et Passe were that he wasn’t entered in the Lawlors Race which make me think that would have been his preference had the opportunity been available, He settles & jumps perfectly & showed a very taking turn of foot at Nass which is exactly what I want in a Ballymore pick.

Side note that this is my third stab at the race so anyone onboard beware, I’m having a mare with the novice hurdlers this year!

[opatcho]

Based on the market, it’s unlikely both those first two trends are going to be met this year.

- PTP winner, ideally RPR around 90
- Bumper winner, ideally over 125 first time out

I’m not even sure there is a horse that will go to post that meets them, let alone be fancied.

This is based in my assumption that both GCW and American Mike will go AB.

Agreed, there nothing in there from a PTP perspective
GCW and AM too slow aswell, ruled them out
Reason why I think we havent see a standout ballymore performance yet, the search continue

[Speedy17]

Just having a browse because it's Monday night and I'm bored, and I also saw someone mention the name Willoughby Court earlier and got me thinking he won the Leamington at Warwick before winning the Ballymore, so had a look at Saturday's entries and Snake Roll catches my eye.

He's had 3 novice hurdle runs, won first time up easy in a 2m maiden, second run over 2m at Haydock he finished a staying in third (nearly done Sizing Pottsie for 2nd) and the winner was Tahmuras. After this race he hacked up over 2 and a half miles round Newcastle on boxing day.

Trip and track Saturday should be spot on, also I heard on the Paddy Power weekend preview podcast last week, Matt Chapman said when he spoke to Lucinda Russel recently she said that she thinks Snake Roll could be the best she's EVER had, which is quite high praise seeing as they got Ahoy Senor to win a grade 1 novice hurdle too.

I just think in a relatively open market who might be worth chancing, he's only priced up in 3 places, 20s WH, 25s 365 and 50s on Unibet. May be tempted in a 'win today and at the festival' come Saturday should he run.

[Benjy23]

Seriously left field that, which I like... Although 50/1 sounds much more like the price he should be than 20s! I'd imagine if you got him added on Betfair you'd get some big prices matched on the exchange.

Will watch with interest if he's declared on Saturday! GL

[AaronLad]

Following on from DenmanSacre's revelation the other night with the stat involving horses that have ran in the Ballymore with A p2p win, A bumper win and a Graded novice hurdle, I decided to go through the last 10 years results and pick out all the qualifiers and see the results. I've also added the date they had completed the stat (when they won their graded novice hurdle)

2022 - Sir gerhard - 1st- 6th feb - mullins

2021 - Bob olinger - 1st - 13th jan - HDB

2020 - envoi allen - 1st - 1st dec - elliott

2019 - Battleoverdoyen - p/u (fav) - 6th jan - elliott

2018 - samcro - 1st - 26th nov - elliott
next destination - 3rd - 17th dec - mullins

2017 - Neon wolf - 2nd - 21st jan - H fry
shattered love - pu - 4th feb - elliott
Bacardys - pu - 12th feb - mullins

2016 - yorkhill - 1st - 2nd jan - mullins

2015 - no qualifiers

2014 - faugheen - 1st - 28th dec - mullins

2013 - no qualifiers

So the last 10 years, 11 qualifiers has yielded 6 winners 54.5% strike rate, plus a 2nd and a 3rd. while we've had qualifiers in 8 of the last 10 years, so 6 winners from 8 races ,75% .

I've seen it mentioned a few times, this could be another willoughby court year, we had no qualifiers on this date that year that ran in the race.
Cracking race to watch that is, I still don't know how neon wolf never got up, willoughby court game as you like.

So while it's easy to dismiss them on their last runs American mike and grangeclare west, will probably only line up if they win a graded hurdle nto, so could be worth playing nrnb.
Tahmuras, having achieved the stat, has to be worth playing nrnb, however unlikely it is he runs.
Halka du tabert is another who can still acheive the stat, so has to be covered for nrnb. This stat could explain why Gordon started HDT in a bumper this season, as mad as it sounds, has he had the ballymore in mind for her since the moment he saw her? surely he knows about this stat and know's the importance of a bumper win for ballymore winners.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just having a browse because it's Monday night and I'm bored, and I also saw someone mention the name Willoughby Court earlier and got me thinking he won the Leamington at Warwick before winning the Ballymore, so had a look at Saturday's entries and Snake Roll catches my eye.

He's had 3 novice hurdle runs, won first time up easy in a 2m maiden, second run over 2m at Haydock he finished a staying in third (nearly done Sizing Pottsie for 2nd) and the winner was Tahmuras. After this race he hacked up over 2 and a half miles round Newcastle on boxing day.

Trip and track Saturday should be spot on, also I heard on the Paddy Power weekend preview podcast last week, Matt Chapman said when he spoke to Lucinda Russel recently she said that she thinks Snake Roll could be the best she's EVER had, which is quite high praise seeing as they got Ahoy Senor to win a grade 1 novice hurdle too.

I just think in a relatively open market who might be worth chancing, he's only priced up in 3 places, 20s WH, 25s 365 and 50s on Unibet. May be tempted in a 'win today and at the festival' come Saturday should he run.

Yeah, they really like him don’t they.
Ive done nrnb, he turns up he’s shorter I would think.
Will look at possible doubles also.
cheers

[Birds Nest]

Lets not forget rare edition could end up in the ballymore too, charlie longsdon did say his next run would be at haydock or the sidney banks, and i got the feeling the sidney would be more ideal because of the potential bog that is usual at haydock. If he hoses up in the sidney over that distance then a weaker bally ,compared to supreme , would surely be the destination. ..imo