2023 Champion Hurdle

[Carnage at Taunton]

Potentially epatante too, now honeys going to the mares.

I would be looking at Epatante without the fav, if she turns up here. She’s looked good this season if you ignore CH.

[PresentingPercy]

PP have a bunch of specials bets dedicated to Constitution Hill under their Specials section. One or two to catch my eye - CH to win by 10 Lengths Or More at 7/2. 20 Lengths or more is 22s

[Istabraq]

PP have a bunch of specials bets dedicated to Constitution Hill under their Specials section. One or two to catch my eye - CH to win by 10 Lengths Or More at 7/2.

Not usually a fan of these types of specials but I think that 7/2 is OK.
Bar State Man I'm not sure if anything is capable of getting within 10l of him and I get the feeling they want to put on a show on the highest stage.
Nico never won a Champion Hurdle either, can't see him easing up short of the line.
No doubt it'll be stake restricted but 7/2 looks OK...

[Liammet]

Not usually a fan of these types of specials but I think that 7/2 is OK.
Bar State Man I'm not sure if anything is capable of getting within 10l of him and I get the feeling they want to put on a show on the highest stage.
Nico never won a Champion Hurdle either, can't see him easing up short of the line.
No doubt it'll be stake restricted but 7/2 looks OK...

I looked at this and decided to go for the Constitution Hill 10L or more and State Man to finish second at 5/1

[Rooster Booster]

I looked at this and decided to go for the Constitution Hill 10L or more and State Man to finish second at 5/1

I wish you luck ...but that’s quite a cleverly crafted bet as the further CH wins by the less likely it is that SM has run his race...I’m off to check if there’s any alternatives to SM being second at bigger prices.

Thatll be no then

[Stormez]

PP have a bunch of specials bets dedicated to Constitution Hill under their Specials section. One or two to catch my eye - CH to win by 10 Lengths Or More at 7/2. 20 Lengths or more is 22s

I’m accidentally on Constitution Hill to win by 10+ lengths, did the Xmas Hurdle & CH by 10+ lengths double mistakenly thinking it was only the Xmas Hurdle he had to win by 10

[Lobos]

Honeysuckle
Unibet Champion Hurdle, 40-1/Close Brothers' Mares' Hurdle, 5-2

She still retains a high level of performance. Not to be making excuses, but if I was able to swap the ground around at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown I think she'd have finished a lot closer in both races. I've always felt over two miles she wants soft ground because she isn't a particularly quick mare, and over two and a half miles she wants it a bit better. That would be to have everything absolutely spot on for her – more of a test over two miles and less of a test over two and a half. She's still in the Champion Hurdle but a couple of the fancied ones wouldn't want to be turning up there if we were to go that route. If it came up very soft we'd have to talk things through, but as of now we're very much heading towards the mares' race. We're very happy with her.


* Still a slight chance she turns up here then. Let's hope for some rain !

[Quevega]

Honeysuckle
Unibet Champion Hurdle, 40-1/Close Brothers' Mares' Hurdle, 5-2

She still retains a high level of performance. Not to be making excuses, but if I was able to swap the ground around at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown I think she'd have finished a lot closer in both races. I've always felt over two miles she wants soft ground because she isn't a particularly quick mare, and over two and a half miles she wants it a bit better. That would be to have everything absolutely spot on for her – more of a test over two miles and less of a test over two and a half. She's still in the Champion Hurdle but a couple of the fancied ones wouldn't want to be turning up there if we were to go that route. If it came up very soft we'd have to talk things through, but as of now we're very much heading towards the mares' race. We're very happy with her.


* Still a slight chance she turns up here then. Let's hope for some rain !

Yeah - the 20-1 with PP NRNB is like we're back to square one 3 years ago.
I nearly put a max bet on it the other day as if either of the big 2 missed the festival they may consider running and she wouldn't be 20-1 on the exchange.
If both missed, it would have a strong chance of landing.
PP restricted me so I didn't bother.

[Kevloaf]

Can somebody work out what odds a Constitution Hill win and a State Man place should be please?

Or explain to me how to work that out...

[riccirich]

Can somebody work out what odds a Constitution Hill win and a State Man place should be please?

Or explain to me how to work that out...

Well con hill a general 2/7, state man 11/4, if you use the normal 1/5 of the price for a place, the state man would be about 0.55/1, but since con hill has to win and he’s playing for two places then you could add a third of 0.55/1 to his price, so about 0.73/1, combined with 2/7, should equal about 1.2/1 I think?

then again when you back a horse solely to place the odds can be lower than 1/5 of the price, and the fraction can vary, so it’s hard to know, but somewhere between 1.1 or 1.2/1 would be my guess

just reading that back over, I think there might be a flaw in my thinking there but maybe not, hard one to work out

[Bumble]

Well con hill a general 2/7, state man 11/4, if you use the normal 1/5 of the price for a place, the state man would be about 0.55/1, but since con hill has to win and he’s playing for two places then you could add a third of 0.55/1 to his price, so about 0.73/1, combined with 2/7, should equal about 1.2/1 I think?

then again when you back a horse solely to place the odds can be lower than 1/5 of the price, and the fraction can vary, so it’s hard to know, but somewhere between 1.1 or 1.2/1 would be my guess

just reading that back over, I think there might be a flaw in my thinking there but maybe not, hard one to work out

The thinking is spot on I would say but as indicated, the place only price for State Man would be shorter than 1.55 though that would be partially mitigated by the fact that the 1st of 3 places has gone. Think Evens or 11/10 for the special would be about right. What price is being offered Kev?

[Exar Essay]

About 10/11 based on best available prices which are 4/11 Con Hill and 2/5 State Man to place.

[Kevloaf]

The thinking is spot on I would say but as indicated, the place only price for State Man would be shorter than 1.55 though that would be partially mitigated by the fact that the 1st of 3 places has gone. Think Evens or 11/10 for the special would be about right. What price is being offered Kev?

Sky have a special, 11/10 (boosted from 10/11)


Cheers. Just wanted to make sure it was about right rather than a rick.... I can leave it at the right price. Might look massive in a tiny field though but 11/10 shots won't make or break my week / day etc so I won't act

[thorne365]

looks like a rick to me - he's 1/3 w/o CH so if 2 places available thats probably 1.2 - depends on whether the offer is based on places now or likely on the day.

regardless of that - say its basically a 1-2 bet which at best prices is 4/11 * 1/3 = 1.82 [4/5]

edit: but i guess prices are in their usual 2 week out lull so likely to drift

edit2: - hes actually 1.82 w/o on betfair so its a shite price - that is very tempting though.....

[Many Clouds]

State Man last matched at 3.90 in the without Constitution Hill market on the exchange.
Tenner at 3.9 and 94 squid at 3.95 matched recently.

Glitch or maybe some news?