2023 Champion Hurdle

[Lobos]

'On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme'
SIr G was better than Dysart wasn't he ?

[Quevega]

I'll be swerving the Tuesday I reckon - I can't imagine being in a crowd of 60k lads with no socks on going "yeah I had 66/1 on him mate"

Especially with nowhere to catch the cum
sockless wankers - nothing worse.

does it count in the house when wearing carpet slippers (and no socks) - cos if it does then I'm in the gang.

[FinalFurlong91]

'On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme'
SIr G was better than Dysart wasn't he ?

They couldn't split them ability wise at that stage and wanted to keep them apart

And dysart couldnt exactly go up in trip

He does send his best one to the supreme most of the time

[riccirich]

I agree with where you're coming from - if it matters.

I think he may be the best we've ever seen, and thought so after the supreme.
I didn't think it looked too good to be true and the times backed it up (didn't someone say somewhere that Jonbon's time would have won most supremes)

But he needs to stay around and continue that level for at least a while to be classed as a legend, otherwise he's just going to be a "look at what you could have" type.

I still would not argue strongly against anyone suggesting he's the best of all time already though, but I think your arguments about the ground being perfect for times in his last 2 runs means that he's had an advantage over some legends from the past so far.

He's also (fingers crossed) likely to bump into one of, if not the best ever mare in March. And when he shafts her by 10 lengths then there'll be cocks exploding all over the stands and pubs around the country.

That’s pretty much my thinking. I think he looks special and definitely wouldn’t be arguing that he will not be one of the greats, but it is the certainty with which some are saying that he already is after one run in open company that I am finding a little OTT.

ive given reasons why I believe it’s possible that his form and times could be getting slightly overrated, and personally I would like to see at least one more run against good opposition before I could be as effusive about him as other people are.

if he shafts honeysuckle by 10l then so be it, but personally I’d rather that if he’s going to do it that he do it a tad more respectfully, the first time is always special for a lady.

[riccirich]

'On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme'
SIr G was better than Dysart wasn't he ?

The alternative was sending dysart to the ballymore instead of sir g where he would have definitely threw away his chance being too free, something that they very likely knew would happen.

So instead of wasting a dart they likely decided that sir g ballymore and dysart supreme gave them a good chance in both races, I seriously doubt con hill held much weight in their thinking, he wasn’t 1/5 fave for the supreme or anything.

[Lobos]

Would love to see CH go for the Matheson. More likely to get nice ground there ?

[Lobos]

That’s pretty much my thinking. I think he looks special and definitely wouldn’t be arguing that he will not be one of the greats, but it is the certainty with which some are saying that he already is after one run in open company that I am finding a little OTT.

ive given reasons why I believe it’s possible that his form and times could be getting slightly overrated, and personally I would like to see at least one more run against good opposition before I could be as effusive about him as other people are.

if he shafts honeysuckle by 10l then so be it, but personally I’d rather that if he’s going to do it that he do it a tad more respectfully, the first time is always special for a lady.

Agree. He'll have to win at least one Champion Hurdle or else no one will remember who he was in 10 years time. I think he just might though....

[Carnage at Taunton]

That’s pretty much my thinking. I think he looks special and definitely wouldn’t be arguing that he will not be one of the greats, but it is the certainty with which some are saying that he already is after one run in open company that I am finding a little OTT.

ive given reasons why I believe it’s possible that his form and times could be getting slightly overrated, and personally I would like to see at least one more run against good opposition before I could be as effusive about him as other people are.

if he shafts honeysuckle by 10l then so be it, but personally I’d rather that if he’s going to do it that he do it a tad more respectfully, the first time is always special for a lady.

Thing is he would very likely have won the Champion Hurdle this year imo, from what I saw on the Tuesday in March.
He should still be improving as well being only 5, whereas his main opponent is certainly not improving at her age.
Its not often we get a horse come along this good visually and times backing that up, so for me it’s all about embracing and enjoying.
I can forget this race now as a punting event, and look forward to watching him , and concentrate on the other races for my cash.

[Rooster Booster]

That’s pretty much my thinking. I think he looks special and definitely wouldn’t be arguing that he will not be one of the greats, but it is the certainty with which some are saying that he already is after one run in open company that I am finding a little OTT.

ive given reasons why I believe it’s possible that his form and times could be getting slightly overrated, and personally I would like to see at least one more run against good opposition before I could be as effusive about him as other people are.

if he shafts honeysuckle by 10l then so be it, but personally I’d rather that if he’s going to do it that he do it a tad more respectfully, the first time is always special for a lady.

From what I can see the thrust of your loquacious argument is that you want to see one more incredible performance before you can fully trust he is as good as the majority believe him to be. Like most things in life if you wait for certainty you will find that others have feasted while you are left with crumbs.I am choosing to enjoy the probability or possibility if you prefer. If I am wrong then so be it but I’d rather embrace every ounce of the possibility than protect myself from disappointment in case I am wrong.

[FinalFurlong91]

He's the best hurdler iv ever seen

Don't care if others won 3 champion hurdles

This lad is a complete and utter freak, that runs like he's a different species to the other horses

No interest in backing him, happy to watch him win and very likely put my honeysuckle bet in the bin

He won't have even been near fully fit the other day, nicky always leaves a bit to work on

And hes only 5 and only had 4 starts

Would be surprised if he's not rated 180+ by the end of the season

The sky is the limit, this horse has a very very very rare amount of ability

Please god let him stay sound for a few years

[FinalFurlong91]

If he was mine I'd go champion hurdle this year

run him in a couple of novice chases, if he takes to it go straight into open company for the champion chase not the arkle

Then the season after see how he does up in trip and go for the gold cup

Please don't waste a season winning 3 runner novice chases at 1/25 on

The problem is I'm pretty sure nicky has nightmares about altior going up in trip and he won't even try.

Personally I don't care much for a string of 1s, try something that should be almost impossible. Give the horse a chance of having a career that people will remember in 50 years.

[Kevloaf]

On Facile, history has shown that Willie always sends the novice he believes is best to the Supreme

2022 - Dysart & Sir Gerhard on par
2021 - S - Appreciate It & B - Galliard Du Mesnil (Appreciate it better)
2020 - S - Asterion, Elixir & B - The Big Getaway (Asterion & Elixir were better)
2019 - S - Klassical Dream, Aramon & B - Easy Game (Klassical Dream better)
2018 - S - Sharjah, Getabird & B - Next Destination (Getabird was nearly favourite and ND was a stayer)
2017 - S - Melon, Cilaos Emery & B - Kemboy (Melon was seen as the best)
2016 - S - Min & B - Yorkhill (Min was seen as the best but close. Similar situation to 2022)
2015 - S - Douvan & B - Nichols Canyon (Douvan seen as the best at that time)
2014 - S - Vautour & B - Faugheen (Both great)
2013 - S Champagne Fever & Pnt Alexandre (Champagne was seen as better)


To me unless Willie has a better horse or one on par with Facile that look like a faster horse, Facile will go the supreme as Willie prefers that race

2013 - I'd strongly disagree that Champange Fever was considered a better horse than Pont Alexandre before that years festival. I remember the time fairly well, but even if I didn't CF going off 5/1 in a Supreme and Pont Alexandre going off 6/4 fav in the Ballymore doesn't jump out at me as CF being perceived better beforehand. Hindsight shows he probably was.

2014 was some year.... Un De Sceaux didn't even run at the festival that year after winning a Grade 2 at 1/14 h


2015 - yeah fair enough, Douvan was easily seen as better

2016 - I don't agree with that either, Min was just hype based on the Mullins/Ricci train we'd had.... Yorkhill was a lot of people's banker of the week? I'd say at the time, before the race Yorkhill (who had come over to these shores to win the Tolworth) was seen as better, and could have easily gone for the Supreme?

2017 - Yeah probably agree with that year at the time, but definitely not a vintage crop?

2018 - Another crop that wasn't seen as vintage at the time

2019 - Klassical Dream and Aramon - no way you can say one of them was better than the other before the Supreme that year, they were so closely matched!

2020 - None vintage crop again? Maybe a bit unfair on Asterion Forlonge who might have been higher rated than I recall before that race...

2021 - no arguement, Appreciate It the best. Would have won at any trip, never stepped up from 2m ... that was a key learning to bear in mind IMO when we see similar paths again.

2022 - I'd say Sir Gerhard was seen as the better horse, and could have gone in either race... Dysart many felt was a 2 miler




Summing up, I don't think we can assume or say that History has shown that Facile Vega will go to the Supreme because he's his best novice.... but he'll probably end up there

Was fun watching those races back

No idea why this is in the CH thread either.... can't be bothered moving all the posts though

[Kevloaf]

He's the best hurdler iv ever seen

Don't care if others won 3 champion hurdles

This lad is a complete and utter freak, that runs like he's a different species to the other horses

No interest in backing him, happy to watch him win and very likely put my honeysuckle bet in the bin

He won't have even been near fully fit the other day, nicky always leaves a bit to work on

And hes only 5 and only had 4 starts

Would be surprised if he's not rated 180+ by the end of the season

The sky is the limit, this horse has a very very very rare amount of ability

Please god let him stay sound for a few years

No interest in backing him is an interesting point.

I posted similarly that the race is dead as a betting event to me now, but on reflection, if we're talking about what plenty are classing as already one of the greatest of all time, is 4/6 not at least worth considering?

Ante post, perhaps not, but I think if he was 4/6 NRNB or on the day I'd have a long and hard think about wanting to profit from a horse being Frankel-like .... (different class) etc

Won't be for everyone, but I've only had it in my head a few days and think if people are right, and I was one that wanted to see him 'back up' to believe it after the Supreme, I feel he did...

Anyone else feel the same?

[FinalFurlong91]

No interest in backing him is an interesting point.

I posted similarly that the race is dead as a betting event to me now, but on reflection, if we're talking about what plenty are classing as already one of the greatest of all time, is 4/6 not at least worth considering?

Ante post, perhaps not, but I think if he was 4/6 NRNB or on the day I'd have a long and hard think about wanting to profit from a horse being Frankel-like .... (different class) etc

Won't be for everyone, but I've only had it in my head a few days and think if people are right, and I was one that wanted to see him 'back up' to believe it after the Supreme, I feel he did...

Anyone else feel the same?

I'd have him in a good few multis nrnb if he was 4/6

Dont think thats very likely though

But odds on antepost this far out isnt for me on any horse

[Quevega]

No interest in backing him is an interesting point.

I posted similarly that the race is dead as a betting event to me now, but on reflection, if we're talking about what plenty are classing as already one of the greatest of all time, is 4/6 not at least worth considering?

Ante post, perhaps not, but I think if he was 4/6 NRNB or on the day I'd have a long and hard think about wanting to profit from a horse being Frankel-like .... (different class) etc

Won't be for everyone, but I've only had it in my head a few days and think if people are right, and I was one that wanted to see him 'back up' to believe it after the Supreme, I feel he did...

Anyone else feel the same?

Realistically, should Honeysuckle win the Hattons' and Irish Champion again, his price should hold (ish).
As he's unlikely to beat anything as good as Epatante before March in the xmas hurdle.

I'm not certain it will to be honest, but you'd think they'd be able to go 1/2 NRNB vs an unbeaten mare and 2 time champion.
They really ought to go bigger if she remains unbeaten and looks at or near her best.
But the times and ratings he's earnt will scare the bookies I think.

edit, the point I'm making is I'd take the 1/2 NRNB and double it up with many other bets. I think (at this stage) (if it was offered)