Fat Jockey Podcast - Ballymore Novices Hurdle

[BookieBasher]

Then, in that scenario, SG goes Ballymore. DD is Supreme bound......imo.

Why wouldn't Mullins want to throw his two best Supreme darts at Henderson's two best Supreme darts?? He's a very competitive and proud man and loves a fight. He may still have others that will be plenty good enough to win this year's Ballymore anyway. Why waste sending either DD or SG there when they are clearly 2 milers and would, imo, be disadvantaged over the longer trip ??

Absolutely WIllie is a proud man who doesn’t back down. But he wants winners! And I believe the Ballymore is there for the taking and either SG or DD would have no problem taking in the extra 5 furlongs so wouldn’t be a waste. I’ve got SG and DD doubles both ways as like Spectre believe they will both win so being split either way is fine with me. Although DD winning the Ballymore pays for my 3 days at the Festival

[Kevloaf]

Isn't that the same if Sir G loses in Dublin ?

Yes but the point is that a win for Sir G impacts the destination 'directly'.....
Which if Sir G does win at Dublin, then loses the Supreme, leaves you nothing...

I've added the double you've said as well, but I'll do the other, and that's still the preference.... jsut to have a 'single' on Dysart Dynamo, rather than still have to rely on Sir G (which will obviously look loads stronger, but not be as nailed as a 'single')


Maybe poorly explained!

[Quevega]

Yes but the point is that a win for Sir G impacts the destination 'directly'.....
Which if Sir G does win at Dublin, then loses the Supreme, leaves you nothing...

I've added the double you've said as well, but I'll do the other, and that's still the preference.... jsut to have a 'single' on Dysart Dynamo, rather than still have to rely on Sir G (which will obviously look loads stronger, but not be as nailed as a 'single')


Maybe poorly explained!

I understood the odds are far greater and obviously there is risk with either. They are 2 different bets in a way.
Depends how firmly you believe DD is the one who shifts if Sir G wins.
Don't think Chevely park would grumble if Sir G was the one to step up.

But the ladbroke odds are from a comparative aspect 'reasonable value' - best priced for both I think.
Whereas the current odds for Sir G winning in Dublin are not. IMO
I doubt that this will improve.

I know he won the maiden he ran in easily, but he needed to as they were all shit and are all still maidens as far as I can tell.
The 2nd and 3rd have both been beaten easily (in similar fashion) by Eric bloodaxe, the goffer and Gringo Daubrelle.

I'm not saying he's a no hoper in Dublin but his price is wrong and purely based on his bumper win, when most of the horses in the novice hurdler division were not tried or highly tried in their bumper season, if they even had one.

[Quevega]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

[That Horse]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

Pleasing that he has a hobby outside of acquiring shit tons of money from all these winning bets.



When are we changing the forum name from Fat Jockey to Fanny Bettor by the way?

[Quevega]

Pleasing that he has a hobby outside of acquiring shit tons of money from all these winning bets.



When are we changing the forum name from Fat Jockey to Fanny Bettor by the way?

Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

[Kevloaf]

Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

- will be reconsidered during any re-brand conversations.

[Spectre]

Fanny Bettor's Racing forum has a very nice ring to it.
I suggest a vote.

You should know by now Q we only do votes on things you don't want votes on!

[ToniC]

Absolutely excellent lads really enjoyed this one. Didn’t feel anywhere near as long as it actually is! So much better than the more mainstream racing podcast. Spectre I particularly enjoyed & agreed with your analysis on the profiles of horses that typically go to the supreme for WPK and how that relates to Sir G and DD.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Really good Podcast guys. Found myself nodding along with pretty much all of it.

[Glasgow Ronnie]

First time I have listened to one in one go, thoroughly enjoyed it

[Craigy14]

Enjoyed this gents, surprising how quick the time goes

I tended to agree with a lot of what was being said, interesting your stats/trends back what a lot are thinking re WPM’s horses for each race.

Definitely liked Grand Jury for here and have backed him, very good run against stayers imo. Better ground as Paul says and he’ll have a chance.

[FinalFurlong91]

The latest podcast on you-tube has been trolled by a true legend.
The sheer volume posted is phenomenal and takes a seriously retarded mind to dedicate yourself to it that much.
Wayne Harrison must be some sort of Russian BOT.
Love his username's though,

Well done guys

You know you've made it as a podcast when Wayne Harrison posts 50 imaginary aftertimed bets into the comments

[Maxfield]

Great Podcast lads, just one question for you gentlemen or anyone on the forum and it's not just on this race.

If you look at the past winners of the Novice races Balleymore / Supreme / Bartlett / Turners / Festival Novice Chase / Triumph and I've only looked quickly, mostly with memory, but I would say that at least 80% of the winners have had 3 runs before coming to Cheltenham. We could be looking at all the 6 races with favs only having 2 runs (excluding Fil Dor & Blazing Khal at the moment, but there's a good chance they won't go off fav) I think Vauban / Icare Allen and Journey With Me could go off fav.

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham. I feel the first run is mostly against a weak field, then the 2nd is to show improvement on jumping against a few better horses, then the third race is to make sure the horse is really confident and has raced against even better opposition to test them in a better run race.

Are the likes of theses horse going to get 3 runs in ? Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Galopin Des Champs / Bob Olinger / Journey With Me / Gerri Colombe / Vauban / Icare Allen /

Could we see a few strong favs beaten to a more experience horse?

Does this favour the likes of Jonbon (soon to have 3) Bravemansgame / Ginto / Blazing Khal / Porticello / Hollow Games / Stage Star / Lhomme Presse / Ahoy Senor / Mighty Potter to name a few!

Or like me has everyone got all these covered just in case!!

I've left out the Arkle as I think they will all pretty much have had 3 runs each.

[Quevega]

Great Podcast lads, just one question for you gentlemen or anyone on the forum and it's not just on this race.

If you look at the past winners of the Novice races Balleymore / Supreme / Bartlett / Turners / Festival Novice Chase / Triumph and I've only looked quickly, mostly with memory, but I would say that at least 80% of the winners have had 3 runs before coming to Cheltenham. We could be looking at all the 6 races with favs only having 2 runs (excluding Fil Dor & Blazing Khal at the moment, but there's a good chance they won't go off fav) I think Vauban / Icare Allen and Journey With Me could go off fav.

Personally I like a novice over hurldes/fences to have had 3 runs before Chelteham. I feel the first run is mostly against a weak field, then the 2nd is to show improvement on jumping against a few better horses, then the third race is to make sure the horse is really confident and has raced against even better opposition to test them in a better run race.

Are the likes of theses horse going to get 3 runs in ? Sir Gerhard / Dysart Dynamo / Galopin Des Champs / Bob Olinger / Journey With Me / Gerri Colombe / Vauban / Icare Allen /

Could we see a few strong favs beaten to a more experience horse?

Does this favour the likes of Jonbon (soon to have 3) Bravemansgame / Ginto / Blazing Khal / Porticello / Hollow Games / Stage Star / Lhomme Presse / Ahoy Senor / Mighty Potter to name a few!

Or like me has everyone got all these covered just in case!!

I've left out the Arkle as I think they will all pretty much have had 3 runs each.

This number of runs is a theme with you isn't it ?
Same with festival appearances.

Logic suggests the more experience the more likely you'll be better. Up to a point when time/age catches up with you.

I don't really think the statistics back this up completely, and when they do that's just natural.
I wouldn't become to obsessed with this angle myself.

The stepping stones for a novice hurdler are generally - Maiden - Listed/grade3 - Grade2/1 - Championship level.
So 3 runs fits the bill for the best ones. And will therefore be the most common route.
Some will skip a step along the way but doesn't mean they will all suffer because of it.

The same goes with festival appearances, as it's most common to go from - Novice hurdler - Novice Chaser - Open chasing.
And the better horses turn up at the festival.

So again, it's going to be the most common route to success as it's the most common route.
But not something you'd factor in more than other stats regarding age and exposure etc. IMO.