GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 2021

[charlie]

Embittered well backed today and largely 8/1 across the board. 12/1 with Skybet in any race betting for those interested.

Lovely find. 0.5pt win to cover Zanza positions

[Kevloaf]

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/blogs-and-tips/handicap-hotshots

One of the more interesting trends around the Grand Annual is that six of the last seven winners hadn’t won previously that season, suggesting that plans can and often do pay off in the race: and there looks a plan in place with Embittered.

He finished a fine third in last year’s County Hurdle, after a novice hurdling campaign that took in two Grade 1s, and he’d followed the same flight path as a novice chaser, fourth the last twice in Grade 1s, though just about the last off the bridle bar Energumene in the Irish Arkle.

The Grand Annual will be his handicap debut, and a mark of 146 – just 1lb higher than in the 2020 County Hurdle – looks well within his means.

[Rooster Booster]

Embittered well backed today and largely 8/1 across the board. 12/1 with Skybet in any race betting for those interested.

And entoucas is 10-1

[Nortons who]

https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/bl...dicap-hotshots

One of the more interesting trends around the Grand Annual is that six of the last seven winners hadn’t won previously that season, suggesting that plans can and often do pay off in the race: and there looks a plan in place with Embittered.

He finished a fine third in last year’s County Hurdle, after a novice hurdling campaign that took in two Grade 1s, and he’d followed the same flight path as a novice chaser, fourth the last twice in Grade 1s, though just about the last off the bridle bar Energumene in the Irish Arkle.

The Grand Annual will be his handicap debut, and a mark of 146 – just 1lb higher than in the 2020 County Hurdle – looks well within his means.

I should declare that I have Embittered already backed TWAR but personally I wouldn't be rushing to back him now for the GA because of some other trends he doesn't meet. For example only 3 winners since 1992 have had an OR of greater than 145, so whilst borderline at 146 it is still above 145. Also 13 of the last 16 winners finshed in the Top 3 on either of their previous 2 starts, whereas Embittered was 4th twice.

Also the stat referenced above 'six of the last seven winners hadn't won previously that season' , although correct is heavily recency biased. My more detailed stats go back a bit further to 12/16 which whilst still indicative is not as solid. Just an illustration that homing in on a single race trend IMO can be misleading but some journalists seem to do this.

No doubt Embittered will now win at a canter. and I will be smiling at my good fortune with a fortuitous TWAR.

[Kevloaf]

I should declare that I have Embittered already backed TWAR but personally I wouldn't be rushing to back him now for the GA because of some other trends he doesn't meet. For example only 3 winners since 1992 have had an OR of greater than 145, so whilst borderline at 146 it is still above 145. Also 13 of the last 16 winners finshed in the Top 3 on either of their previous 2 starts, whereas Embittered was 4th twice.

Also the stat referenced above 'six of the last seven winners hadn't won previously that season' , although correct is heavily recency biased. My more detailed stats go back a bit further to 12/16 which whilst still indicative is not as solid. Just an illustration that homing in on a single race trend IMO can be misleading but some journalists seem to do this.

No doubt Embittered will now win at a canter. and I will be smiling at my good fortune with a fortuitous TWAR.

Yeah, shouldn't be forgotten it's essentially a totally different race as well - as it's technically on a new track.

He's a horse I wish I had more on.... but completely in the hands of the odds compilers now, as I won't back at single figures to "top up" (hate that phrase haha)

[FinalFurlong91]

Yeah, shouldn't be forgotten it's essentially a totally different race as well - as it's technically on a new track.

He's a horse I wish I had more on.... but completely in the hands of the odds compilers now, as I won't back at single figures to "top up" (hate that phrase haha)

Was just about to say this

Trends go out the window somewhat with the change in course

[Nortons who]

Was just about to say this

Trends go out the window somewhat with the change in course

I will try and dig it out but that point was made a few years ago when they went to 4 days and the stats for the race in question have remained pretty constant.

The new distance of the GA on the Old Course is a few yards shorter but I doubt that it will in practice make a siginificant difference. They will still need to be able to jump at speed, off a reasonable handicap mark, comfortable in a race with so many runners and coming from just off the pace.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'd like to put up Glen Forsa for this race. Priced as high as 20/1 NRNB or 25's without that concession.

It was only 2 years ago he was going off 2nd fav, and was favourite for quite a while before the race, for the Arkle. Admittedly that race was one of the weakest in history, but unfortunately he never made it past the 4th fence where he unseated his rider, so it was anyones guess as to how he would have gotten on that day.

Since then he's mostly been tried over further, and to no avail, though he did turn out in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on seasonal debut over 2m 1f where he never looked to travel that well and fell when no chance anyway. He was giving weight away to all but two of the field that day, which was probably far from ideal after 340 days off the track. Since then he's been back over 2m 4f twice, and it was the last day that caught my eye, where he was prominent throughout and really only falling away when clouting the 3rd fence from home. I think the big angle with him is dropping back in trip, which looks to have been the plan most of the season, and also getting him down the weights a bit (7lbs lower since that run at Exeter) by running over further.

He meets a lot of Gaul Stats, for those that are fans of this:

10 of the last 11 winners aged between six and nine years - Aged 9
The last ten winners rated between 138 and 150 - Rated 147
This century only 2 winners with more than 12 chase runs - 9 Chase Runs
Last eight winners no more than four chase runs that season - 3 Chase Starts
Since 2004, no winner had won a h'cap chase that season - No win this season
No repeat winners since 1959 - Never won the race before
Only one novice winner since 2013. Chosen Mate. - Not a novice
13 of the last 16 had run at a previous Festival - Ran, but obviously unseated in the Arkle
Five from the last fourteen winners from the front three in the market from the previous year's race - Didn't run at the festival last season, so falls down on this
Only one winner this century had won a chase over further than 2m 3f - Fails here, as won a novice handicap chase over 2m 7f & 2m 4f, not won an open chase though
Last 6 winners had not been raced for at least 50 days - Will be 67 days from his last run

The same connections have had really well backed horses for the Thursday, in Mister Whitaker (Plate) & Hold The Note (Kim Muir), and can see this one being the next to drop considerably in price if declared.

[Quevega]

I'd like to put up Glen Forsa for this race. Priced as high as 20/1 NRNB or 25's without that concession.

It was only 2 years ago he was going off 2nd fav, and was favourite for quite a while before the race, for the Arkle. Admittedly that race was one of the weakest in history, but unfortunately he never made it past the 4th fence where he unseated his rider, so it was anyones guess as to how he would have gotten on that day.

Since then he's mostly been tried over further, and to no avail, though he did turn out in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on seasonal debut over 2m 1f where he never looked to travel that well and fell when no chance anyway. He was giving weight away to all but two of the field that day, which was probably far from ideal after 340 days off the track. Since then he's been back over 2m 4f twice, and it was the last day that caught my eye, where he was prominent throughout and really only falling away when clouting the 3rd fence from home. I think the big angle with him is dropping back in trip, which looks to have been the plan most of the season, and also getting him down the weights a bit (7lbs lower since that run at Exeter) by running over further.

He meets a lot of Gaul Stats, for those that are fans of this:

10 of the last 11 winners aged between six and nine years - Aged 9
The last ten winners rated between 138 and 150 - Rated 147
This century only 2 winners with more than 12 chase runs - 9 Chase Runs
Last eight winners no more than four chase runs that season - 3 Chase Starts
Since 2004, no winner had won a h'cap chase that season - No win this season
No repeat winners since 1959 - Never won the race before
Only one novice winner since 2013. Chosen Mate. - Not a novice
13 of the last 16 had run at a previous Festival - Ran, but obviously unseated in the Arkle
Five from the last fourteen winners from the front three in the market from the previous year's race - Didn't run at the festival last season, so falls down on this
Only one winner this century had won a chase over further than 2m 3f - Fails here, as won a novice handicap chase over 2m 7f & 2m 4f, not won an open chase though
Last 6 winners had not been raced for at least 50 days - Will be 67 days from his last run

The same connections have had really well backed horses for the Thursday, in Mister Whitaker (Plate) & Hold The Note (Kim Muir), and can see this one being the next to drop considerably in price if declared.

He has finally been dropped below 150 I suppose.
One of the less well handicapped horses in training for the last 2 years.
Very much in the Al Dancer mode.

Got put up to 150 (from 138) for winning a three runner Grade 2 at Sandown before his arkle effort.
Most definitely looks harsh in hindsight, as Kalashnikov was probably not very well at the time and needed further himself.

I'd say there would be better chances in the Grand annual rated around the same mark.
Doubt he'll get backed either.

Not saying he's got no chance though.
More Nutritious than tasty. Bit like Fodder

[ComplyOrDie]

He has finally been dropped below 150 I suppose.
One of the less well handicapped horses in training for the last 2 years.
Very much in the Al Dancer mode.

Got put up to 150 (from 138) for winning a three runner Grade 2 at Sandown before his arkle effort.
Most definitely looks harsh in hindsight, as Kalashnikov was probably not very well at the time and needed further himself.

Yeah, I can see this and agree. Been waiting for his mark to drop, and think he may be able to go well off 147 now. Likely chance one or two will turn out to be less exposed than him, but given the majority of them are now around 8-10/1 (maybe a little bigger) for the race I was looking beyond the obvious and he stuck out on back form, which as you do note, could be questionable though.

He needs to make up for that Arkle disappointment

[Kevloaf]

Gault. ComplyOrDie Not Gaul
Mould. Quevega Not mode




It doesn't bode well for my next 30 posts does it. #SomeonesHadABeer







I actually think it's a solid case... I would be closer to backing the related owner trixie than it as a single though as a bit of a fun bet, as unfortunately Q is probably right, he's not 'well handicapped' after an initial silly rating after that win.

[ComplyOrDie]

Gault. ComplyOrDie Not Gaul
Mould. Quevega Not mode




It doesn't bode well for my next 30 posts does it. #SomeonesHadABeer







I actually think it's a solid case... I would be closer to backing the related owner trixie than it as a single though as a bit of a fun bet, as unfortunately Q is probably right, he's not 'well handicapped' after an initial silly rating after that win.

Can confirm that was a typo and not me actually thinking it was called Gaul Stats

Haha I backed the owners trixie the other day

[Kevloaf]

Embittered

"He looks likely to run in the Grand Annual. He has run some lovely races over fences this season and obviously ran very well in the County Hurdle last year. The drier the ground, the better his chance."

[Madmoose]

Entoucas

He has the option of the Grand Annual and the Paddy Power Plate. We’ll make a decision closer to the time. I thought he ran really well for a long way at the Dublin Racing Festival. Whichever race he goes for, he should have a good chance.



ATR quote but the horse is only entered in the Grand Annual

[punterorplonker]

Was anyone a bit shocked when Paul said it would be Ashutor and Dux De Gen running here only. I did listen right didn't I.
.
ex arkle winner lol.
They both won't be 26 on the day for sure.