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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    He was by meeee.

    First festival that I had the full week off for.... I bought a chocolate trifle for the week.... after he lost, and I lost my fifty squid (big bet at the time) I went downstairs and tucked straight in to the trifle to make up for the disappointment.
    I've got a bunch of Lindor chocolates saved from Christmas as my comfort for next week. They won't make it to the Champion Hurdle if Appreciate It is beaten.

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    • I'm gonna aftertime here but i backed the winner that day, good ol menorah, 12/1, what a horse he was ! Was a great start to the day and built my hopes up but that was it ! Gonna get me a chocolate trifle for next week !

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      • Originally posted by Ice View Post
        I'm gonna aftertime here but i backed the winner that day, good ol menorah, 12/1, what a horse he was ! Was a great start to the day and built my hopes up but that was it ! Gonna get me a chocolate trifle for next week !
        Hahaha I had get me out of here who I was convinced would win. Never quite looked like reeling your boy in though did he! Dickie gave menorah a super ride that day.

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        • Originally posted by Hardy Eustace View Post

          Hahaha I had get me out of here who I was convinced would win. Never quite looked like reeling your boy in though did he! Dickie gave menorah a super ride that day.
          I thought he was gonna get to him and was holding my breath ! I think that was the same day my mate gave me a tenner to put on a new story and i forgot what horse he said and backed another jewel !

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          • Originally posted by Ice View Post
            I'm gonna aftertime here but i backed the winner that day, good ol menorah, 12/1, what a horse he was ! Was a great start to the day and built my hopes up but that was it ! Gonna get me a chocolate trifle for next week !
            Haha I don’t think something that happened 11 years ago counts as after timing

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            • Originally posted by charlie View Post

              Haha I don’t think something that happened 11 years ago counts as after timing
              I tried to balance it up by after timing the following 6 losers !

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              • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                He was by meeee.

                First festival that I had the full week off for.... I bought a chocolate trifle for the week.... after he lost, and I lost my fifty squid (big bet at the time) I went downstairs and tucked straight in to the trifle to make up for the disappointment.





                Just checked the results that day, I don't have records for 2010, but I'd be amazed if I had a winner other than Quevega that day as none of them ring a bell apart from Binocular and I 100% was not on him
                This reminds me of two random stories for some reason.

                I would have been 12 for that years festival and by that point I was at the annual stage of convincing my parents on the Monday evening I was ill and would be off for the week. However two or three years on from that they realised I was taking Cheltenham off every year with a mystery illness (reckon I was 14 or 15) and so they send me to school on the Wednesday! I was not having that though so waited til about 10:30am and then made out that I had just been sick in the toilets to the office lady. With the school having the policy of pupils not being allowed in for 48 hours after being physically sick (in case it’s a bug that could go round the school), I not only guaranteed myself being home in time for the Neptune but also guaranteed myself home for the remaining days of the festival. Next morning I didn’t even need to feign illness anymore as ‘it’s not my fault mum.. blame the school for stopping me going in’.

                Fast forward to these days in my life in the hands of degeneracy and I literally had a uni lesson 18 months ago where so many of the class (7 of the 11 in the room) backed my horse that the lecturer genuinely stopped the lesson so we could all watch Thyme Hill piss up in the Persian War at Chepstow without trying to hide our earphones up our sleeves and our phones under the desk. Good times.

                72 hours lads

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                • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post

                  Im not saying it was significant. As I said above, I think the stat is a red herring.
                  2 of the last 20 winners were older than 6 and roughly one in 9 (41/357) of the entries were older than 6 - so not statistically significant.
                  What is significant is why so few older horses run in the race. There's a fact as Ruby Walsh would say. Not that I agree with all of Ruby's selections!

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                  • Originally posted by Supermaster View Post

                    2 of the last 20 winners were older than 6 and roughly one in 9 (41/357) of the entries were older than 6 - so not statistically significant.
                    What is significant is why so few older horses run in the race. There's a fact as Ruby Walsh would say. Not that I agree with all of Ruby's selections!
                    Clearly very few horses are still novice hurdlers at 7. That's why very few older horses run in the Supreme. Im struggling to understand why you think this is significant and why this fact is a negative for Appreciate It specifically though?

                    Had Douvan, Vautour, Altior and all the other impressive Supreme winners waited until they were 7 year olds to run in the race, do you think they wouldn't have won? Id say they would have won easier as they were a year stronger and more mature. See their novice chase wins as proof.

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                    • Surely being a year older and more physically mature is actually an advantage

                      It does maybe mean there isn't as much scope for improvement going forward though as the younger horses may catch up with him next year or the year after

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                      • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post

                        Clearly very few horses are still novice hurdlers at 7. That's why very few older horses run in the Supreme. Im struggling to understand why you think this is significant and why this fact is a negative for Appreciate It specifically though?

                        Had Douvan, Vautour, Altior and all the other impressive Supreme winners waited until they were 7 year olds to run in the race, do you think they wouldn't have won? Id say they would have won easier as they were a year stronger and more mature. See their novice chase wins as proof.
                        I was throwing out a question rather than making a statement. But this just pushes the question as to why few horses are still a novice at 7 and what about the horses that are still a novice at over 6?

                        P.S. It's only one of many factors and I don't think it means AI doesn't deserve to be favourite.
                        Last edited by Supermaster; 13 March 2021, 12:19 PM.

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                        • Originally posted by Supermaster View Post

                          I was throwing out a question rather than making a statement. But this just pushes the question as to why few horses are still a novice at 7 and what about the horses that are still a novice at over 6?
                          Why would you hold a horse back until its 7 to be a novice? Clearly nobody would aim to do that. Appreciate It missed a whole season with injury. Thats the only reason he's running in this race at 7 instead of 6.

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                          • Tile Tapper...
                            That Metier form is looking worse by the week

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                            • Originally posted by opatcho View Post
                              Tile Tapper...
                              That Metier form is looking worse by the week
                              Was just about to say the same thing.

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                              • Originally posted by Ice View Post

                                Was just about to say the same thing.

                                Just have to take a look at that Tolworth form, and ask yourself... would any of them win at the festival. We're in the position where we can answer that... hell no, and they can't even win crappy races in GB
                                Just have to look at the Irish novice form, the horses beaten by Appreciate It (the likes of Blue Lord) could have a chance in some of the strong handicaps next week

                                I cant have Metier

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