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[Quevega]

I've lost faith in using the MJO passage through the phases as precursor to changes in weather patterns towards cold or mild. Following 'warm phases' of 3-4 in early Jan we saw a 2-week cold spell, we've seen the MJO recently pass through 6 and now loitering and weakening through 7, but very little amplification in the upper flow at mid-to-high latitudes to show for it in the models. What high lat blocking that has been showing and will likely continue to be shown down to changes in the strat, i.e. downwelling of weakening winds.

And I don't get this obsession with using AAM as tool on its own, it seems that when ever it rises all falls we are told to look out for changes but it seems, like when the MJO moves through the historically 'colder' and 'milder' phases, many other drivers are at play, some not so obvious, drowning it out much influence from it over the N Atlantic sector / Europe. Though the biggest interference in what we would expect in lag to certain MJO phases being climate change.

The state of the stratosphere is one driver, when it couples with the troposphere, still one to keep an eye on though.

Be glad not hear about the MJO for several months, until the next cold season. I've given up talking about how it may influence patterns, as it makes me feel fraudulent!

An example of one of the recent posts.
Forum is thriving too.

Different fucking level altogether int it ?
But similar in many ways.

[Quevega]

It's actually unbelievable and I need to stay away.
They all have there own tag names with a summary of their favourite weather underneath

Quevega.
"warm and sunny, with bikini's"

[archie]

Seems to me that, if it's soft ground or worse, you're probably not going to get more than about a dozen finishers. Purely on numbers, it would be odds against any named horse finishing.

To put this into perspective, the last 5 Nationals:

2018 Heavy 12 finishers, 38 runners
2019 G/S 19/40
2021 G/S 15/40
2022 G/S 15/40
2023 G/S 17/39

So, as Kevloaf says, betting on a top 20 finish is essentially betting to get round. Having fewer runners is of benefit to the better horses/jumpers as there should be fewer dodgy jumpers bringing them down but the better horses are presumably those carrying more weight and will have more difficulty coping with soft or worse ground. This far out, odds on any horse to get round seems spectacularly poor value to me.

[Kevloaf]

To put this into perspective, the last 5 Nationals:

2018 Heavy 12 finishers, 38 runners
2019 G/S 19/40
2021 G/S 15/40
2022 G/S 15/40
2023 G/S 17/39

So, as Kevloaf says, betting on a top 20 finish is essentially betting to get round. Having fewer runners is of benefit to the better horses/jumpers as there should be fewer dodgy jumpers bringing them down but the better horses are presumably those carrying more weight and will have more difficulty coping with soft or worse ground. This far out, odds on any horse to get round seems spectacularly poor value to me.

Cheers, good enough to stop me bothering to even look at that market again

[Quevega]

Cheers, good enough to stop me bothering to even look at that market again

13/8 10 places is still decent value. for a horse at 20/1 5 places.
One or two others are also.

I suppose you could predict that the bookies might let these prices drift a little if the ground nearer the day is very soft. But I'd fucking doubt that.

[somer1]

Epic Boost up again WH. 25% boost by the look of it. Piss poor.

[Irish Rugby]

Opt In to grab an EPIC Boost up to twice the price, to use on any horse you like - that's what their advertising states, though for me it s just a 25% boost. Can anyone else get twice the price?

Not for me, but I'd be tempted back if they went back to double the price.

[Ice]

Opt In to grab an EPIC Boost up to twice the price, to use on any horse you like - that's what their advertising states, though for me it s just a 25% boost. Can anyone else get twice the price?

Not for me, but I'd be tempted back if they went back to double the price.

25% for me as well, not really worth the bother now, was a great offer but like so many others it's been taken away.

[Benjy23]

Aye, 25%. Like most things it's getting shitter. But I'll still take it

[Eggs]

….Hills £1 free bet on the Grand National.

[darlojim]

the DOB were a nice way to get horses that were short onside slowly, but going from 100% increase, down to 50% boost last week and now down to 25%, its not worth it unless Hills are a standout price on one now. Would rather take a shorter price with cashout

[Ice]

Just had an email from paddy power saying I'm no longer eligible for free bets, my tenner was bought down to a fiver a few weeks back and now it's gone completely !

[Zachx02]

I've been voided on my Constitution Hill to go unbeaten bets on sky, worth checking if you placed that on there as I know it was highlighted on here

[Eggs]

I've been voided on my Constitution Hill to go unbeaten bets on sky, worth checking if you placed that on there as I know it was highlighted on here

….Hills have a market on his no of runs next season;

< 3.5 @ 4/6
> 3.5 @ 11/10

[Eggs]

….Ladbrokes; Bet up to £5 on the Grand National and get a matched free bet to use on the first day of Aintree (opt in required).