Horses to avoid for the 2021 Cheltenham festival

[somer1]

I have already backed a few that Scooby has put up on this thread.
Do i wish i haven't backed them? Hell no.
Would i chuck more £ at them? I might at some point.
Yous pays ya money and takes ya chance as i look at it.
Would you back a tipsters horse? Me not really.
Would you back a horse the tipster is putting you off? Yes i might.
My money, My wins, My losses.
BTW i'm not having a go at Scooby before someone wants to try and kick my butt for it.

[EnvoyAllen]

This season coming. Nov hurdles will be extremely difficult. Because of all the missed bumpers

Nov chasing to a strong extent too. I haven't backed either of the above pair, and wont be doing so either at anywhere near current prices.


If champ diddnt go to aintree and step up to 3M, i wouldn't have backed for the RSA.

If lost in translation diddnt go to aintree and step up from the supreme to 2m4, I wouldn't have backed for the JLT.


Would anyone have backed buveur dair for the champion if he diddnt win the 2miler going away at aintree, probably not.

If faugheen diddnt drop to 2m at punchestown with vautour going the other way. Nobody would have nailed the CH /JLT antepost .

Same for don cossack in the GC after winning the Punchestown gold cup and relishing the trip. ..... and alboum photo winning all after falling on the RSA

Without aintree Thistlecrack wouldn't have been priced up at all for the stayers the year be won. I certainly wouldn't have been on af 25s antepost.

Countless examples. Where we have missed vital form.

I’m still mightily confused.

I think what you might be suggesting is that out there, there may be horses that could bolt right up in next year’s Arkle and Marsh, of which are really unknown yet to the vast majority of the betting punter and to the bookmakers themselves? Despite only losing 6 weeks of last year’s National Hunt campaign? Horses out there that might go chasing straight away in 6 months that we haven’t, nor the bookies, without having a season hurdling first nor even being mentioned as to why they missed Cheltenham earlier this year...?

Once again, I’m a little lost. If there’s a horse that could beat Envoi Allen, why haven’t we seen him or her yet? Why would he or she have crept in at Aintree or Punchestown (that we missed) and puta performance in to suggest they’d have the beating in a novice chase of the finest horse Elliott owns currently?

Alas, I’m scratching my head a little. I can’t work out at this precise moment how missing the final post weeks of ‘where it all leads to throughout the season’ would enable us to deduce there could well be horses out there better than Shishkin or Envoi Allen. If they were good enough they’d either ran at a Cheltenham or we’d have heard they were swerving the Cotswolds extravaganza for Aintree/Punchestown?

Forgive me lads. I’m just trying to work out my timelines.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Donald Rumsfeld quote "Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know."

[Scooby91]

I’m still mightily confused.



I think what you might be suggesting is that out there, there may be horses that could bolt right up in next year’s Arkle and Marsh, of which are really unknown yet to the vast majority of the betting punter and to the bookmakers themselves? Despite only losing 6 weeks of last year’s National Hunt campaign? Horses out there that might go chasing straight away in 6 months that we haven’t, nor the bookies, without having a season hurdling first nor even being mentioned as to why they missed Cheltenham earlier this year...?

Once again, I’m a little lost. If there’s a horse that could beat Envoi Allen, why haven’t we seen him or her yet? Why would he or she have crept in at Aintree or Punchestown (that we missed) and puta performance in to suggest they’d have the beating in a novice chase of the finest horse Elliott owns currently?

Alas, I’m scratching my head a little. I can’t work out at this precise moment how missing the final post weeks of ‘where it all leads to throughout the season’ would enable us to deduce there could well be horses out there better than Shishkin or Envoi Allen. If they were good enough they’d either ran at a Cheltenham or we’d have heard they were swerving the Cotswolds extravaganza for Aintree/Punchestown?

Forgive me lads. I’m just trying to work out my timelines.

Ofcourse they can be beaten.
There are horse that weren't novices over hurdles that are going novice chasing, rated higher than the pair of them.

Stating the obvious, chasing is a whole new discipline. It would be foolish to think that every horse progresses at the same rate, and also that every horse improves the same ammount for a change of discipline.
Look at the last 3 years supreme and ballymore subsequent results the season after.

They're both way too short antepost. Theres far better bets at similar prices and better in other races. they have to make it there for a start, they have the ptp background, and that's advantageous. But they have to maintain and progress on the form they've already shown, then perform to the best of their ability on the day and that's no given.


The 6 weeks we lost were atleast as equally as important in form reading. You always want to see it backed up.

[Lobos]

It's to everyone's advantage that we currently have one horse races, betting wise, in the Marsh and Arkle. We can all grab some great prices on the other horses at 5 times +
the price in behind them in the market as well as having those 2 covered in singles and doubles all over the shop. Anyone just relying on Envoi or Shiskin to just turn up and pick up are taking an almighty risk. Neither have jumped a regulation fence in public and, as Archie keeps reminding us, it's odds against both of them making it to the festival.

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree with Scooby.

Aside from the Cheltenham Festival itself, the most interesting part of the season when looking to the next one, is after mid-March, and not before it.

Festival horses get the chance to back up a win or placing in another competitive race in April/early May,

They get a chance to try a new trip, or a new running style (more prominent, hold-up), run on different ground, and to mix with other horses that didn’t get to Cheltenham.

This period usually defines far more to the connections about future plans than anything that happened before mid-March.

It has made our assessment of bumpers moving into novice hurdles, and novice hurdlers moving into novice chasing very one-dimensional, and made it virtually all about the 2020 Festival form as we lost the main Aintree, Ayr, Fairyhouse, Sandown and Punchestown racedays.

I’ve been light on novice hurdlers for the new season, as most of the serious bumper races were lost, as well as the later developing types being denied informative runs.

Those Novice hurdlers and chasers that I have backed are all with cashout potential, and I’m on the right side of them c/w current prices, so I should be able to remain flexible about keeping them in the team, or not, early season.

As usual I wouldn’t touch any short-priced horses in the antepost markets - and favour seeking out bigger priced alternatives.

[Spectre]

Ofcourse they can be beaten.
There are horse that weren't novices over hurdles that are going novice chasing, rated higher than the pair of them.

Stating the obvious, chasing is a whole new discipline. It would be foolish to think that every horse progresses at the same rate, and also that every horse improves the same ammount for a change of discipline.

This is absolutely spot on. We don't know what we haven't seen. Several horses tend to come out of the woodwork. Particularly the bumpers. Plus the odd late developing novice hurdler. Although anything thought to be Cheltenham bound the following season from the novice hurdling ranks has was usually seen at the Festival, unless there was a setback of some kind.

Backing your convictions on a horse or three is fine, but going in firmly to any extent in the novice hurdles before Christmas is just a bit mad, and even more so this season than any for the reasons said. I'd have been perfectly happy to have had Shishkin at 6/1 for the Supreme on the day. I didn't, but the point remains. With so much potential talent around this season I don't see any of the novice hurdles going off with an odds on favourite, so all will plays on the day.

I don't think we've missed out too much on assessing the future novice chasers with no Aintree and Punchestown though. Any shake up with the novice hurdlers will likely come from senior hurdlers switching to fences, or horses that missed all or part of the season.

One such horse I'm watching out for a switch from the first category is Saldier. I suspect either he or Sharjah will be targeted at the Arkle this season. If I get any hint that either are switching they'll be in my book sharpish. First run over fences would see a big shake up in the Arkle market, and they would be very close in price to Shishkin assuming a routine win.

Following the Mullins theme Klassical Dream is also a horse to watch out for that's largely off the radar. He could be threat to Shishkin in the Arkle, or possibly stepped up to challenge Envoi Allen in the Marsh. And Commander of Fleet is surely a major player in the RSA if he's back to full fitness.

I can't see too many left field surprises in the main Championship races over fences or hurdles though. In fact I'll confidently predict that none will be won by anything that isn't reasonably prominent in the respective markets now. That is unless there are unprecedented levels of injury.

[Quevega]

This is absolutely spot on. We don't know what we haven't seen. Several horses tend to come out of the woodwork. Particularly the bumpers. Plus the odd late developing novice hurdler. Although anything thought to be Cheltenham bound the following season from the novice hurdling ranks has was usually seen at the Festival, unless there was a setback of some kind.

Backing your convictions on a horse or three is fine, but going in firmly to any extent in the novice hurdles before Christmas is just a bit mad, and even more so this season than any for the reasons said. I'd have been perfectly happy to have had Shishkin at 6/1 for the Supreme on the day. I didn't, but the point remains. With so much potential talent around this season I don't see any of the novice hurdles going off with an odds on favourite, so all will plays on the day.

I don't think we've missed out too much on assessing the future novice chasers with no Aintree and Punchestown though. Any shake up with the novice hurdlers will likely come from senior hurdlers switching to fences, or horses that missed all or part of the season.

One such horse I'm watching out for a switch from the first category is Saldier. I suspect either he or Sharjah will be targeted at the Arkle this season. If I get any hint that either are switching they'll be in my book sharpish. First run over fences would see a big shake up in the Arkle market, and they would be very close in price to Shishkin assuming a routine win.

Following the Mullins theme Klassical Dream is also a horse to watch out for that's largely off the radar. He could be threat to Shishkin in the Arkle, or possibly stepped up to challenge Envoi Allen in the Marsh. And Commander of Fleet is surely a major player in the RSA if he's back to full fitness.

I can't see too many left field surprises in the main Championship races over fences or hurdles though. In fact I'll confidently predict that none will be won by anything that isn't reasonably prominent in the respective markets now. That is unless there are unprecedented levels of injury.

I have even more sympathy for blind people now.
They obviously know nothing.
Like Jon Snow.

[Spectre]

I have even more sympathy for blind people now.
They obviously know nothing.
Like Jon Snow.

Fortunately ‘Winter Is Coming’

[EnvoyAllen]

This is absolutely spot on. We don't know what we haven't seen. Several horses tend to come out of the woodwork. Particularly the bumpers. Plus the odd late developing novice hurdler. Although anything thought to be Cheltenham bound the following season from the novice hurdling ranks has was usually seen at the Festival, unless there was a setback of some kind.

Backing your convictions on a horse or three is fine, but going in firmly to any extent in the novice hurdles before Christmas is just a bit mad, and even more so this season than any for the reasons said. I'd have been perfectly happy to have had Shishkin at 6/1 for the Supreme on the day. I didn't, but the point remains. With so much potential talent around this season I don't see any of the novice hurdles going off with an odds on favourite, so all will plays on the day.

I don't think we've missed out too much on assessing the future novice chasers with no Aintree and Punchestown though. Any shake up with the novice hurdlers will likely come from senior hurdlers switching to fences, or horses that missed all or part of the season.

One such horse I'm watching out for a switch from the first category is Saldier. I suspect either he or Sharjah will be targeted at the Arkle this season. If I get any hint that either are switching they'll be in my book sharpish. First run over fences would see a big shake up in the Arkle market, and they would be very close in price to Shishkin assuming a routine win.

Following the Mullins theme Klassical Dream is also a horse to watch out for that's largely off the radar. He could be threat to Shishkin in the Arkle, or possibly stepped up to challenge Envoi Allen in the Marsh. And Commander of Fleet is surely a major player in the RSA if he's back to full fitness.

I can't see too many left field surprises in the main Championship races over fences or hurdles though. In fact I'll confidently predict that none will be won by anything that isn't reasonably prominent in the respective markets now. That is unless there are unprecedented levels of injury.

I’m in agreement with Mr Spectre here, I can’t really understand how losing the two festivals at Aintree and Punchestown at the end of the National Hunt campaign post Cheltenham would have any bearing on novice chases this coming season. Novice hurdlers yes, absolutely, but Envoi Allen and Shishkin are both a ‘year ahead’ of the bumpers we’ve missed out on.

The markets currently for the novice hurdling Supreme, Ballymore and Albert Bartlett have double priced favorites because we know a limited amount of information about them and also those that we may have missed due to the aforementioned festival cancellations, whereas the novice chasing (generally a year later for the large majority of horses) divisions have clearer markets based on the historic trends/form lines of last season?

Envoi Allen wouldn’t have needed to frank any form at Aintree or Punchestown - he’s franked it so far throughout his career and all through last season. He wouldn’t have jumped a fence at either of them.

So yes, novice hurdlers this year might be hard divisions to really pay attention to but I would suggest, as the bookmakers currently do, that the novice chasing markets on all the big 3 races hold up well. Proven horses......so far in their careers, irrespective of whether they can adapt to jumping a fence. The market nor the punter knows this, so they give us the prices with all known evidence so far.

[Scooby91]

Would you back EA and or shiskin at current prices or slightly above. And im assuming for the specific races of JLT and Arkle. ?

What about champ for the RSA last year. The ballymore winner won nicely, and did nothing. He finished a comfortably beaten 2nf and Aintree was the evidence needed on champ.

[Hardy Eustace]

Would you back EA and or shiskin at current prices or slightly above. And im assuming for the specific races of JLT and Arkle. ?

What about champ for the RSA last year. The ballymore winner won nicely, and did nothing. He finished a comfortably beaten 2nf and Aintree was the evidence needed on champ.

The champ argument is a really good one. It was aintree where he looked a bit special but because of that he was no bigger than 10/1 for the RSA after.

This year there was no aintree

So what price would have champ been if starting the new season just on the back on the back his ballymore second? 33/1?

No punchestown or aintree is definitely a hinderance but in the case of novice chasers they are still out there and the question punters have to ask themselves is do they take the bigger price with far more unknowns or do they sit back and wait until the season is in full cry or until NRNB.

Each to there own and arguments can be made for both.

That’s my view on novice chasers. Forming strong opinions on last years bumper horses (going over hurdles) this early though takes a braver man than me!

[Scooby91]

Although that was tongue in cheek, there is actually some substance to it. Quite often you will see the most profitable ante post punters on here are those that are able operate throughout the season using various ante post methods (book building, cash out, laying off etc). Those same punters are not always as successful when having to bet on the day and in races they may not have a strong opinion on.

If this applies to outside of chelt.
Not sure if you have followed my daily bets at all throughout any or all of the 4 months. Apologies if you haven't.

But just looking back at this. As having done 4 months publically on the day.


Under achieved?
On par?
Or over achieved?

To what you thought would be the case.

[JackieMoon33]

If this applies to outside of chelt.
Not sure if you have followed my daily bets at all throughout any or all of the 4 months. Apologies if you haven't.

But just looking back at this. As having done 4 months publically on the day.


Under achieved?
On par?
Or over achieved?

To what you thought would be the case.

I’m not even sure of the context behind that quote, how long ago I said it, or even who I was referring to

I’m also not sure why you brought it back up either?

[Scooby91]

I’m not even sure of the context behind that quote, how long ago I said it, or even who I was referring to

I’m also not sure why you brought it back up either?

To be fair I was being tongue in cheek. I was trying to find something else, but noticed this quote from this thread near the start. When i was just starting out with the daily bets. Kevoaf replied that I was over rated. And was your response to that.
No offense meant. at all. So apologies if it came across in that manner.