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Ryanair Chase 2021

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  • Never liked Allaho, and 5/1... no thank you
    Fakir is just over twice the price and I feel he's better suited, all over Fakir

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
      I’ve been thinking the last couple of days... Samcro’s price is kind of crazy.

      won the Marsh last year and the Ballymore the year before yet he’s 20/1.

      Recency bias is clearly a thing... tried over a trip that didn’t suit last time and pushed out to 20/1 for this.

      Samcro has way more class than IA, Allaho and others. Yep. I’m backing it.

      Thoughts?
      Had this discussion with someone the other day about Samcro.

      Festival form is fine but I feel you need to show some kind of form. This year he has been rubbish. Even if the Savills wasn't his trip he was out the back and finished from a long way out. He wasn't great at Down Royal either.

      Wouldn't be surprised if the Marsh last year has bottomed him out somewhat, it was some battle.. He's by all accounts a very hard horse to get right and I'd be surprised if he's on the boat.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
        I’ve been thinking the last couple of days... Samcro’s price is kind of crazy.

        won the Marsh last year and the Ballymore the year before yet he’s 20/1.

        Recency bias is clearly a thing... tried over a trip that didn’t suit last time and pushed out to 20/1 for this.

        Samcro has way more class than IA, Allaho and others. Yep. I’m backing it.

        Thoughts?
        Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

        IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough. That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won at all since 2018 and hasn’t won a chase ever. Ever. 0/9! Is there anything to suggest the Ryanair will be 10th time lucky?

        Samcro has form figure at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

        In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View Post

          Had this discussion with someone the other day about Samcro.

          Festival form is fine but I feel you need to show some kind of form. This year he has been rubbish. Even if the Savills wasn't his trip he was out the back and finished from a long way out. He wasn't great at Down Royal either.

          Wouldn't be surprised if the Marsh last year has bottomed him out somewhat, it was some battle.. He's by all accounts a very hard horse to get right and I'd be surprised if he's on the boat.
          Yeah I get that I really do and he has been disappointing. He was disappointing on the build up to the Marsh, no?

          beaten 10lengths by Faugheen and also fell in the Drinmore.

          “He’s not an easy horse to train and we're hoping to get a clear run with him between now and Cheltenham. He hasn’t quite peaked yet this season but hopefully better ground and returning to Cheltenham will bring out the best in him.

          That makes it sound like he’ll be on the boat to me

          You’re also forgetting one very important thing.... on the RP Cheltenham stable tour for Gordy Samcro had a picture featured. That means he has to win surely?! They only give pictures of their best

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post

            Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

            IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough. That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won at all since 2018 and hasn’t won a chase ever. Ever. 0/9! Is there anything to suggest the Ryanair will be 10th time lucky?

            Samcro has form figure at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

            In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.
            I mean GS has just come in here and argued this way better than I ever could have, thanks pal

            so yeah... what he said!

            Comment


            • Agree with most of what GS said, only thing I'd debate is that FD is not good enough. Not that I'd 100% say he is, but he has just chased home CPS who is apparently something special, I think he will be be better over the Ryanair trip and he is still 6 (feels like he has been around forever?!) so could be open to improvement.

              Out of the entire field, there are probably 5 horses (Allaho, Min, Fakir Doudairies, Saint Calvados and Samcro) who I think could run 165+. From those I'd probably say that Samcro has the highest possible ceiling, but the least chance he will actually run to something near that. But at 20/1 for a horse who loves Cheltenham, I've certainly seen worse bets

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post

                Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

                IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough. That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won at all since 2018 and hasn’t won a chase ever. Ever. 0/9! Is there anything to suggest the Ryanair will be 10th time lucky?

                Samcro has form figure at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

                In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.
                Saint Calvados hasn't won a chase ever?

                He definitely, definitely has...

                He's won 5.... the last in 2019.




                Have I missed something here?

                Given that, and the neck 2nd to Min last year.... he's surely worth you checking again?
                Last edited by Kevloaf; 26 February 2021, 12:50 AM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                  Saint Calvados hasn't won a chase ever?

                  He definitely, definitely has...

                  He's won 5....
                  If you ignore the 5 chases he has won, he has never won a chase

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post

                    Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

                    IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough. That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won at all since 2018 and hasn’t won a chase ever. Ever. 0/9! Is there anything to suggest the Ryanair will be 10th time lucky?

                    Samcro has form figure at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

                    In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.
                    Time for bed you’re having a mare tonight!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post

                      Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

                      IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to.Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough. That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won at all since 2018 and hasn’t won a chase ever. Ever. 0/9! Is there anything to suggest the Ryanair will be 10th time lucky?

                      .
                      Couldn't you say this about every single horse that's won the Ryanair (and the Cathcart) with the exception of Imperial Commander?

                      Last edited by luisgarciaisgod; 26 February 2021, 01:23 AM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                        Must be a few winners that were novices the year before of this race?

                        He hasn't got as many runs under his belt as some of the seasoned chasers, but he's one of the ones on the upgrade...

                        6 runs over fences, 4 of them in graded chases.


                        Still, as favourite he's easy to look past. He's always, always been short.... 12s best price?
                        5 of the 11 since 2010 were Kev. Only 4/11 had won a Grade 1 already that season and only 5/11 had ever won a grade 1 outside of novice company before.

                        He was best priced 16s with Denise after the Durkan, I think I recall seeing him that price with others too?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by ToniC View Post

                          5 of the 11 since 2010 were Kev. Only 4/11 had won a Grade 1 already that season and only 5/11 had ever won a grade 1 outside of novice company before.

                          He was best priced 16s with Denise after the Durkan, I think I recall seeing him that price with others too?
                          B365 went 16's cos I backed it.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                            Saint Calvados hasn't won a chase ever?

                            He definitely, definitely has...

                            He's won 5.... the last in 2019.




                            Have I missed something here?

                            Given that, and the neck 2nd to Min last year.... he's surely worth you checking again?



                            The 5 chase wins is a really good point...in my defence...:

                            1. It was silly o’clock, my missus is pregnant, and I’ve had little sleep since last weekend
                            2. He still hasn’t won for yonks
                            3. Santini was a neck second, do we think he’ll win the Gold Cup
                            4. What about the rest of my chugging excellent post?
                            5. I’m making a case for the Ryanair 11th favourite - there’s bound to be holes in my argument !

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by luisgarciaisgod View Post

                              Couldn't you say this about every single horse that's won the Ryanair (and the Cathcart) with the exception of Imperial Commander?
                              No.

                              I give you Vautour.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post




                                The 5 chase wins is a really good point...in my defence...:

                                1. It was silly o’clock, my missus is pregnant, and I’ve had little sleep since last weekend
                                2. He still hasn’t won for yonks
                                3. Santini was a neck second, do we think he’ll win the Gold Cup
                                4. What about the rest of my chugging excellent post?
                                5. I’m making a case for the Ryanair 11th favourite - there’s bound to be holes in my argument !


                                Yeah the rest is good. I'd back Samcro and Saint Cavlvdos ew if you wrote it again

                                Comment

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