Champion Hurdle 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

one only has to look back at the weekend to connections of Lami Serge and Sceau Royal , to realise how this sport can go from highs to lows and vice versa .
Now what happened in the Triumph did not result in the sadness that connections of Lami Serge would have suffered, that i imagine we all agree, is the worst side of the sport.
It was though a very low point for connections of Goshen, and the sight of Jamie Moore after the incident is something that I am sure none of us liked to see.
I for one will be hoping that he proves up to running a big race on the day, and gives his connections much better memories than they had last year. To see him running up that hill winning the CH would make my Cheltenham.
Can he do it? yes I think so, will he do it? For me it’s a case of which Goshen turns up, because imo he’s proved capable of a big run, and we all know hes put a bad one in.
And of course weather there is, or are, better than him whatever he does.
One thing for sure, hes livened up the race, added intrigue, and got us talking, which to me is great.

[PresentingPercy]

'Since 1985, 105 5 year olds have competed in the Ch Hurdle, only 2 have won'. Was looking back over some notes and previews from earlier in the year, and this one from Paul Ferguson on a FF podcast preview really stood out to me.

Big fan of Goshen despite him breaking my heart last year, but at the current prices I can't be having him, coupled with the above stat also being a negative. I know I'll get the inevitable push back of Espoir d'Allens recent exploits, but in truth, as impressive as he was that day, it was a race that fell apart with the reigning champion falling and bringing Sharjah with him, and the market fancy Apples Jade bombing out.

[Carnage at Taunton]

'Since 1985, 105 5 year olds have competed in the Ch Hurdle, only 2 have won'. Was looking back over some notes and previews from earlier in the year, and this one from Paul Ferguson on a FF podcast preview really stood out to me.

Big fan of Goshen despite him breaking my heart last year, but at the current prices I can't be having him, coupled with the above stat also being a negative. I know I'll get the inevitable push back of Espoir d'Allens recent exploits, but in truth, as impressive as he was that day, it was a race that fell apart with the reigning champion falling and bringing Sharjah with him, and the market fancy Apples Jade bombing out.

Yeh, the 5 year old stat is there all to see, and it could well be that he needs another year, but as his trainer said....he’s a freak and he does seem to be living up to that description to me. Anyway whatever, he’s added spice to the race and with him in the race the build up for me is much more exciting.

[Nortons who]

On past trends for this race Honeysuckle and Goshen are the only entries which meet all of them, with Epatante next best and then Sharjah and Silver Streak close behind. However, based on ORs the Mares receiving 7lbs are effectly 3-4lbs ahead of the boys and Honeysuckle IMO on the strength of her win at the DRF just tips fhe scales.

One thing is certain, if they all run to form and / or improve a touch on their seasonal bests, we should be in for a cracking race. It seems to me that the CH and the Stayers are two races this year where if the major players line up it could be very tight between the market leaders.

[The King Pimm]

Paddy Power have boosted Epatante to 7/2 today for anyone interested, it’s on their horse racing specials section

[Istabraq]

Paddy Power have boosted Epatante to 7/2 today for anyone interested, it’s on their horse racing specials section

You are looking more and more the genius with every day and price move TKP...

[Quevega]

Paddy Power have boosted Epatante to 7/2 today for anyone interested, it’s on their horse racing specials section

They've been 7/2 the last 2 days !
Bookies operating like a Burton's sale now.
drop the price then offer it for sale at same price as the day previously.

Fucking Burton's

[ToniC]

On past trends for this race Honeysuckle and Goshen are the only entries which meet all of them, with Epatante next best and then Sharjah and Silver Streak close behind. However, based on ORs the Mares receiving 7lbs are effectly 3-4lbs ahead of the boys and Honeysuckle IMO on the strength of her win at the DRF just tips fhe scales.

One thing is certain, if they all run to form and / or improve a touch on their seasonal bests, we should be in for a cracking race. It seems to me that the CH and the Stayers are two races this year where if the major players line up it could be very tight between the market leaders.

Could you expand on that at all? On his age/exploits this season/races he’s run in this season etc I’d have goshen as more of a stat-buster were he to win than anything by my reckoning

[Brooksie]

'Since 1985, 105 5 year olds have competed in the Ch Hurdle, only 2 have won'. Was looking back over some notes and previews from earlier in the year, and this one from Paul Ferguson on a FF podcast preview really stood out to me.

Big fan of Goshen despite him breaking my heart last year, but at the current prices I can't be having him, coupled with the above stat also being a negative. I know I'll get the inevitable push back of Espoir d'Allens recent exploits, but in truth, as impressive as he was that day, it was a race that fell apart with the reigning champion falling and bringing Sharjah with him, and the market fancy Apples Jade bombing out.

If you count the winner of the 1985 running it's 3 winners. Just love how stats can be used in different ways to confirm/strengthen bias Yes I believe trends offer guidance when betting and can be great tools, however sometimes it's probably just as important in identifying when a trend is changing. 'the trend is your friend until it ends'

lets say Goshen wins the Champion Hurdle. You could quite easily start forming the argument 5 year olds in recent times have a fair chance. Cherry picking data since Katchit's win in 2008 through 2021, 3 winners out of the last 14 running's being 5 years old. I'm not saying I'd formulate any bias towards backing 5 year olds, it's just to highlight how trends can be formed out of left field.

Using trends that date back to the 80's can be quite problematic too. You have to consider multiple variables. For instance the changes in training, the changes in breeding, where horses are sourced etc. Far more horses are bought from France than they were in the 80's and these horses tend to be quite forward racing from a younger age. You'd be much better looking at 10 year trends as opposed to 40 year trends.

If Goshen is good enough he'll win, if he gets beat it won't be because he only had 5 candles in his cake at the start of the year.

[Istabraq]

Brooksie

Fair response that, some very valid points.
The rule I've tended to use is the ex Triumph hurdle winners going to the Champion hurdle which is a little different to the blank 5yo rule.
If a horse wins a Triumph he/she is a strong galloper and stayer to succeed 17f on the New Course, the skills needed to win a Triumph are very different to what is needed to win a Champion hurdle which is obviously run over a furlong shorter on the speedier Old Course.
If a horse can win both then they are exceptional horses in their generation.
The point you make re French imports is so valid, 4yo French hurdlers may well be in their second season of NH racing and hold a huge experience advantage over UK/Ire bred horses, this must be taken into consideration, they have after all won the last 4 renewals....

[SeanRock]

The more I think about this race the more I see it playing straight to Honeysukles strengths. Goshen will go off like a bat out of hell & string the field out, there shouldn’t be too much shelter for those who would like to be tucked in & delivered late.

A proper stayer with a turn of foot will relish that scenario & Honey is that for me! Have a big roll up with Abacadabras included alongside Envoi Allen but I’d be very pleasantly surprised if he’s up to the likely stamina test that will unfold.

[ComplyOrDie]

The more I think about this race the more I see it playing straight to Honeysukles strengths. Goshen will go off like a bat out of hell & string the field out, there shouldn’t be too much shelter for those who would like to be tucked in & delivered late.

A proper stayer with a turn of foot will relish that scenario & Honey is that for me! Have a big roll up with Abacadabras included alongside Envoi Allen but I’d be very pleasantly surprised if he’s up to the likely stamina test that will unfold.

Whilst I agree with the likely outcome (I think Honeysuckle has the best chance in the race, and so do the bookmakers), I dont see why Goshen is being classed as this uncontrollable type who goes off like a bat out of a hell.

He got a lead from Navajo Pass at Wincanton in the Kingwell, he also got a lead off Allmankind in the Triumph, he doesn't have to lead, and I don't think he will in the Champion Hurdle either, not with Aspire Tower and Silver Streak around.

I can see Goshen and Honeysuckle going for home earlier than anything else in the race, but I think Honeysuckle is likely to be the quicker of the pair. I think both will stay well to the line though.

[charlie]

Whilst I agree with the likely outcome (I think Honeysuckle has the best chance in the race, and so do the bookmakers), I dont see why Goshen is being classed as this uncontrollable type who goes off like a bat out of a hell.

He got a lead from Navajo Pass at Wincanton in the Kingwell, he also got a lead off Allmankind in the Triumph, he doesn't have to lead, and I don't think he will in the Champion Hurdle either, not with Aspire Tower and Silver Streak around.

I can see Goshen and Honeysuckle going for home earlier than anything else in the race, but I think Honeysuckle is likely to be the quicker of the pair. I think both will stay well to the line though.

I don't think uncontrollable is fair, but at the same time GM has said 'I think he gets claustrophobic and doesn't want to be amongst horses - he doesn't like being crowded. We tried to hold him up and it was the complete wrong thing to do'. If that's the case then I expect him to be up with the pace right from the word go. If he lives up to the regard his backers hold him in then that shouldn't be an issue, it's just whether or not that plays into the hands of a Honeysuckle/Epatante with their speed, and weight advantage.

I now think there could be an extraordinary horse in Goshen and if he pulled it all together in March I wouldn't be surprised - 2 months ago I'd have be borderline shocked, but the big question for me is reliability. He was very good in the Kingwell but woeful the time before when he should have been fit if nothing else, and they found he had a fibrillating heart. Clearly that issue looks to have been resolved, but issues like that when a horse is priced 7/2 does little for me, and that's before you factor in question mark over form in top company.

It's great for the race and for Goshen backers though. Even though I don't want him to win I'd be happy for all those crushed last year to have a taste of redemption!

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't think uncontrollable is fair, but at the same time GM has said 'I think he gets claustrophobic and doesn't want to be amongst horses - he doesn't like being crowded. We tried to hold him up and it was the complete wrong thing to do'. If that's the case then I expect him to be up with the pace right from the word go. If he lives up to the regard his backers hold him in then that shouldn't be an issue, it's just whether or not that plays into the hands of a Honeysuckle/Epatante with their speed, and weight advantage.

I now think there could be an extraordinary horse in Goshen and if he pulled it all together in March I wouldn't be surprised - 2 months ago I'd have be borderline shocked, but the big question for me is reliability. He was very good in the Kingwell but woeful the time before when he should have been fit if nothing else, and they found he had a fibrillating heart. Clearly that issue looks to have been resolved, but issues like that when a horse is priced 7/2 does little for me, and that's before you factor in question mark over form in top company.

It's great for the race and for Goshen backers though. Even though I don't want him to win I'd be happy for all those crushed last year to have a taste of redemption!

Oh he 100% needs to be up with the pace but he certainly doesn't need to lead. A lot of horses 'track leaders' but the way he's been made out by some is that he has to go out all guns blazing, which just isn't.

I mean at the prices I'd rather back Honeysuckle, which I did, when I topped up on her, I think she's just a star. I don't just think it will be difficult for Goshen to beat her, I think it will be difficult for the whole field to.

[opatcho]

Do people really think Goshen can and will run up to 170? Because that’s what he’s going to have to do to beat the likes of Honeysuckle and Epatante

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