Champion Hurdle 2021

[Lobos]

Goshen is 4/1 joint favourite with Epatante with 365.

That is a bananas bit of pricing.


I'll make a statement now that I am quick to jump on others for, which is that 'I cannot understand that'


Is anybody on here of the opinion that Goshen is a better bet, at the same price, than Epatante?

I'd have at least 6 Infront of him in betting. In my book he'd be around 20/1. He's fav apparently on the exchanges which either means everyone else has got it horribly wrong or I have........

[Lobos]

Pentland Hills was the worst priced horse I'd ever seen during last season - after he was beaten twice he shortened into around 6/1.

Goshen didn't even technically win his race and he's already 4/1fav for the race.

It is astonishing really.

Angels Breath was the same in the Supreme in 2019. I couldn't understand why he was as short as he was and didn't think he had a hope in the race and he ran exactly as I thought. Goshen clearly has a hope but not a 4/1 hope.

[Lobos]

Goshen is a horrific price Kev. Triumph winners hardly have a sparkling record, and the fact the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course will also work against him. He’s unproven outside of juvenile company, who as a cohort have a poor Champion Hurdle record. Gary and Jamie Moore are hardly my favourite combination to get everything right on the big day either.

Of the top 6 or 7 he’s the one I like least, but I’m not sure how much of that is to do with his price, and how much is about what I really think about his chances.

In answer to your specific question. Current Champion at 4/1, or inexperienced headbanger at 4/1 Surely it’s no contest. Anyone backing Goshen at 4/1 want their heads examining in my opinion.

The old course/new course point you bring up is interesting. They ride him out front to make use of his stamina and he basically runs everything into the ground. Could it be that he would be more suited to a Stayers than a Champion Hurdle ?I'd fancy his chances more in that.

[Kevloaf]

The old course/new course point you bring up is interesting. They ride him out front to make use of his stamina and he basically runs everything into the ground. Could it be that he would be more suited to a Stayers than a Champion Hurdle ?I'd fancy his chances more in that.

You'd fancy a 5 year old in the Stayers Hurdle?


We know you love your age stats (Malone Road!)




Absolutely no way he's got a better chance in the Stayers than the Champion Hurdle.

[Saxon Warrior]

Goshen is 4/1 joint favourite with Epatante with 365.

That is a bananas bit of pricing.


I'll make a statement now that I am quick to jump on others for, which is that 'I cannot understand that'


Is anybody on here of the opinion that Goshen is a better bet, at the same price, than Epatante?

Epatante is the better bet at 4/1 than Goshen, definitely.

But a year ago, Epatante was a no-mark, and then became a brilliant hurdler in one Newbury run, so anything decent as a novice is a big possible improver when they go second-season hurdling .

I honestly don’t believe being a 5yo means much over hurdles, it’s the ability of each individual horse that matters.

Saint Roi didn’t look too feeble a 5yo when he zoomed up the finishing straight in March, and it didn’t stop anyone backing him in the County, against a big field of older more experienced hurdlers (4 winners were 5year-olds in the County in the last 10 years).

The biggest issue with 5yo’s winning the Champion Hurdle in recent times has been the complete drop-off in good quality horses coming from the flat in the UK/IRE, straight into juvenile hurdles.

It hardly happens anymore.

Most of the decent 3yo flat middle-distance horses are sold abroad each year (even AOB seems to be bulk selling them to Australia each August now).

So, for now, hurdling gets the lower quality 10F-12F 3 year olds to run in juvenile hurdles, and of course fewer of them then make it to the top-table of the Champion Hurdle.

It’s not about age IMO it’s about the lack of depth of quality flat horses moving into juvenile hurdles.

Sir Eric May have broken that mould, god rest him.

[Lobos]

You'd fancy a 5 year old in the Stayers Hurdle?


We know you love your age stats (Malone Road!)




Absolutely no way he's got a better chance in the Stayers than the Champion Hurdle.

Oh yeah, forgot that the 5yo Stayers stat was even worse than that of the Champion Hurdle. He'd better go down the County Hurdle route then

[Saxon Warrior]

Four 5yo won the Supreme in the last 10 years. (Klassical Dream the last)
Four 5yo won the County Hurdle in the last 10 years (Saint Roi the last)
Six 5yo won the Betfair Hurdle in the last 10 years. (Pic D’Hory the last)

For two mile hurdles 5yo’s can compete, there’s a reason there is no weight for age over hurdles at 5.

A lot of these will be from French racing, because prize money is stronger in France than the UK and they therefore don’t lose as many good quality 3yo horses sold out of Europe.

[Quevega]

It’s been proven a really good 5 year old can compete in grade ones come springtime. So cannot be ruled out.
But they’re hardly prolific and even when there were more good uk flat horses converted over. They still seemed to be at a disadvantage.

There is a reason they don’t get an allowance as really good ones can still be very competitive.
But there’s also a reason they’re only 11 weeks from being called a Juvenile come the champion hurdle in March.

They do particularly well in handicaps as they’ve often been beaten regularly prior to Spring and still developing and capable of better. They lend themselves to being able to hide their potential due to the races they tend to run in up till March

[Saxon Warrior]

I love it that 5yo’s get under-rated, it creates an angle to be exploited by a good one.

[Craigy14]

Just the chat on age, would I be safe to assume that ideally you want a horse foaled closer to the start of the year?

With age, they will turn 1 year old from January-December turn 2 following Jan and so on. So a horse foaled later in the year “technically” isn’t going to turn a specific age until that same month although it seems to read different with horses. Horses foaled earlier may be maturer/stronger?

Or am I going way off track here? Hope the above makes sense.

[Quevega]

I love it that 5yo’s get under-rated, it creates an angle to be exploited by a good one.

Problem with that is Triumph winners or horses like Goshen are often poor value, from the start.

[gjt7756]

Just asked ruby Walsh for his horse to watch out for, for the upcoming NH season and he said saint roi is a big improver staying over hurdles, happy to throw a few more points on for the CH now, want to be in a nice position come March, after all the man should know what a champion hurdler looks like, Hurricane fly, Faugheen, Annie power, I’ll take his word!!

[Istabraq]

Just asked ruby Walsh for his horse to watch out for, for the upcoming NH season and he said saint roi is a big improver staying over hurdles

For me it's a big ask that Saint Roi improves past every gelding and 7lb more than the reigning champion, Epitante.
And worth remembering that Ruby will never say anything in public that connections consider privileged or confidential information, which probably means Willie knows something like Saldier is a stone better than everything....

[Saxon Warrior]

Problem with that is Triumph winners or horses like Goshen are often poor value, from the start.

Thats true of Goshen now, and PH last season.

Wasn't the case with Espoir D'Allen (RIP) fortunately.

There's just very little quality depth coming out of 4yo hurdles each season because of the reasons I mentioned earlier.

[Arkle]

Just watched both the triumph & champion back there the question I had after it was how far does epatante beat that lot? Even further my answer