FJ Podcast Ep3 - Morgiana Hurdle and Echoes In Rain

[Kevloaf]

Hello,

3rd one... no Spectre unfortunately as he's enjoying Cheltenham....so jono and I had a chat about the moribund Morgiana, the Champion Hurdle and the horse in most peoples ante post diaries.... Echoes In Rain....

Tried to make this one a bit shorter... still 30 mins.... ironically a bit of an echo if the volume is too loud - will look into that for next time. Sorry. Amatuers still.

This episodes poll...... Is Echoes In Rain a genuine Champion Hurdle contender, before the Morgiana...

[Atlantic Viking]

Absolutely a champion hurdle contender IMO. Can she beat Honeysuckle? No idea, probably not on what we know so far, but contender definitely. Nicky H positive comments, for example, can go straight in the fucking bin, but there's regularly weight to the ones from WPM and Echoes is clearly well thought of.

[ComplyOrDie]

Love this chaps.

As a Zanahiyr fanboy for the Triumph last season I do completely agree with you both about the race on Sunday, not a chance he should be that price. I think Echoes In Rain is the bet Sunday, on the basis she has to be winning, IMO, to even be considered for a Champion Hurdle.

Tactically it will be very interesting. If it ends up a sprint finish then she wins, and I don't see anything that will take them along at a pace that will make it a test of stamina to benefit the likes of Abacadabras and Zanahiyr, and possibly even Sharjah, as he can travel well off a pace. Sean O'Keefe has a job to do on Sunday and that's not to go to hard too soon on her, that's it for me.

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely a champion hurdle contender IMO. Can she beat Honeysuckle? No idea, probably not on what we know so far, but contender definitely. Nicky H positive comments, for example, can go straight in the fucking bin, but there's regularly weight to the ones from WPM and Echoes is clearly well thought of.

The 'division' looks so weak in depth that I think it's very hard to say she's not a contender now before she flops.

We should probably have discussed who we'd fancy without Honeysuckle in a bit more depth!

[Kevloaf]

Love this chaps.

As a Zanahiyr fanboy for the Triumph last season I do completely agree with you both about the race on Sunday, not a chance he should be that price. I think Echoes In Rain is the bet Sunday, on the basis she has to be winning, IMO, to even be considered for a Champion Hurdle.

Tactically it will be very interesting. If it ends up a sprint finish then she wins, and I don't see anything that will take them along at a pace that will make it a test of stamina to benefit the likes of Abacadabras and Zanahiyr, and possibly even Sharjah, as he can travel well off a pace. Sean O'Keefe has a job to do on Sunday and that's not to go to hard too soon on her, that's it for me.

Is she a horse you'd use for a roll up?

I might back her with in a double with Honeysuckle....as if she's the biggest threat, it's all over

[ComplyOrDie]

Is she a horse you'd use for a roll up?

I might back her with in a double with Honeysuckle....as if she's the biggest threat, it's all over

I'm struggling to see what beats her on Sunday, so yeah, roll up potential is most definitely there.

If that ground comes up with 'Good' in the description for the Champion Hurdle then I can't see Saldier out the places and he's 25's having won the Galway hurdle off 155 and a G3 already, that's plenty more than what EIR has done, and she's 12's. Absolutely appalling price. She should be that IF (or when) she wins on Sunday, not before.

I'll be very surprised if anything is good enough to topple Honeysuckle though. For me she's the best priced short fav for the festival, even taking into account the possibility of injury etc...

[Quevega]

The Echo is genius given the subject matter.

I think the best prices currently are Sharjah 20-1 & Epatante 16-1. 2nd and 3rd last year and both still the right age. They are both horses you'd immediately look at if the Mare got injured.

Sharjah had a consistent year last year staring at Honeysuckle's arse, and Epatante probably was not fully right for some reason.
Another I'd consider before he runs in the Hattons Grace is Saldier as there is every chance he is a totally different horse than last year, as his form was rank in comparison to his better runs.

Willie has a track record with horses like this, as Jon referred too. Sharjah and Aramon both seemed quite average novices for 18 months or so then win the Galway hurdle and become genuine grade one contenders, and they say Elliot can lay one out . Obviously Aramon never got the chance to show this, but he was fancied. And Saldier is not a novice but did seem to have a wilderness year last season, only to look on terms with himself over the summer.

Epatante's price in particular could shorten IMO as the competition she'll face over here is not great. Sharjah could be available at bigger at some point, especially if the Morgiana don't go well for him. But then he has his own xmas race after that. But it would be a surprise if either went off on the day bigger.

It looks like a real push to see any of last years novices coming through. At the moment it's just a bunch of 4yr olds and a Mullins mare as the rest are going chasing for now. I've said previously that their is a real chance one of the best novices reverts, especially if Honeysuckle looks beatable or gets injured. Part of the reason why I had a small bet at 100-1 on Bob Olinger.

Of the second seasoners going hurdling that we know of, Echoes in Rain IMO has the strongest credentials by far, based on what we've seen. In fact her rating makes her look really well handicapped, when you look at her form and the manner of her wins. The concern as Jono referred to is the way she sometimes does too much. Patrick has said she'll be plenty fit enough as she's so hard on herself at home, which sounds like she is similar to Un De Sceaux and is a really good trainer (like James Milner) except she's a lot younger, a female, and a horse.

Willie has treated her very much like he sometimes does with some of his better horses, Un de Sceaux ran in very non descript/ off the radar type races as a hurdler and swerved Cheltenham, and so did Energumene, and it sounds like they all work in a similar way when training. She is obviously more of a hurdler having come off the flat, and they went chasing before ever becoming great hurdlers. It just looks like he decides that he sees something in them that means he wants to almost slow them down and teach them how to race out of the spotlight before they are really tested. Which makes sense. He seems to be trying to prolong their careers and help them reach their peak, which is the trainers job.

I'd have her rated nearer 150 and think timeform are nearer the mark with their rating of her, and given normal improvement from a Mullins horse of this type that Jono's excellent stats showed up, then she should be able to challenge.

The negatives are mainly Honeysuckle and the standard she sets, and she is different to Epatante who looked like she could win a couple of champions after her first win, as she is established and unbeaten.

The other issue is that the chance of every 143-150 rated mare (or gelding for that matter) - improving 15-18lb in the next 5 months are small. Most obviously won't, or we'd have a shit hot champion hurdle.
But she looks to have the best chance of them all.

I don't think she needs to win Sunday in a likely tactical race personally but she has to look professional and go close for me to be happy.

The best bet for the Morgiana at the prices looks to be Abacadabras (but not a fav of mine so I won't back unless he's 6-1+) & Sharjah at 7-2 or better.
However, this market is notoriously volatile and may change considerably before the off.

[darlojim]

Could be wrong Kevloaf but the echo might be because you were hearing Jono through your laptop/pc instead of through headphones so the playback was twice? But then I don't know why your voice wasn't echoing :/

[Kevloaf]

I'm struggling to see what beats her on Sunday, so yeah, roll up potential is most definitely there.

If that ground comes up with 'Good' in the description for the Champion Hurdle then I can't see Saldier out the places and he's 25's having won the Galway hurdle off 155 and a G3 already, that's plenty more than what EIR has done, and she's 12's. Absolutely appalling price. She should be that IF (or when) she wins on Sunday, not before.

I'll be very surprised if anything is good enough to topple Honeysuckle though. For me she's the best priced short fav for the festival, even taking into account the possibility of injury etc...

I think she's plenty short given she's a G2 winner against a genuine G1 horse? Have to be better options for a roll up than her IMO over the weekend?

Fav at Uttoxeter in the first for starters

I don't think I'll bet in the Morgiana, but I defintiely wouldn't back her as fav.


Saldier, is hard to back ante post isn't he.... may well be a very fair price on the day given his profile now?

[ComplyOrDie]

I think she's plenty short given she's a G2 winner against a genuine G1 horse? Have to be better options for a roll up than her IMO over the weekend?

Fav at Uttoxeter in the first for starters

I don't think I'll bet in the Morgiana, but I defintiely wouldn't back her as fav.


Saldier, is hard to back ante post isn't he.... may well be a very fair price on the day given his profile now?

Haha it is a weak basis, on my part, as to why she is the bet on Sunday, but you and Jono struggled and gave mutliples reasons why some of the others are opposable (which I don't disagree with), so is she really that bad a bet?

Probably right about Saldier, he'll not go straight to the festival from his latest win, and no doubt he'll encounter ground worse than what he'd like so can expect a below par performance, thus a drift in the market, then could back again come the festival when we know the ground we're likely to have.

[ComplyOrDie]

The Echo is genius given the subject matter.

I think the best prices currently are Sharjah 20-1 & Epatante 16-1. 2nd and 3rd last year and both still the right age. They are both horses you'd immediately look at if the Mare got injured.

Sharjah had a consistent year last year staring at Honeysuckle's arse, and Epatante probably was not fully right for some reason.
Another I'd consider before he runs in the Hattons Grace is Saldier as there is every chance he is a totally different horse than last year, as his form was rank in comparison to his better runs.

Willie has a track record with horses like this, as Jon referred too. Sharjah and Aramon both seemed quite average novices for 18 months or so then win the Galway hurdle and become genuine grade one contenders, and they say Elliot can lay one out . Obviously Aramon never got the chance to show this, but he was fancied. And Saldier is not a novice but did seem to have a wilderness year last season, only to look on terms with himself over the summer.

Epatante's price in particular could shorten IMO as the competition she'll face over here is not great. Sharjah could be available at bigger at some point, especially if the Morgiana don't go well for him. But then he has his own xmas race after that. But it would be a surprise if either went off on the day bigger.

This I agree with, and she's one I've been meaning to add. Need to do this sooner rather than later, for all the reasons you've noted

[Kevloaf]

Agree with a lot of that Quevega - too much in fact, so I'll take issue with the handling of horses like UDS and Energumene. There's a gulf between those two, and UDS was handled the way he was because he had higher profile horses at the time.... if Ricci's stars weren't about, UDS would have been campagined differently... unlikely to have avoided Cheltenham. I don't think there's a big catalogue of WPM stars that he avoids Cheltenham with.... not by choice anyway, Chacun Pour Soi was because of injury so was too late to the party...

She's come from nowhere, and is filling a void... she's nothing special. Is she really better than Concertista? Would you have her fav against Concertista? What price would Concertista be in this Morgiana?

[Lobos]

Before the Morgianna...it has to be a no. For me she has to run very close in it to prove herself as a genuine contender. She could quite easily come out and smash them on Sunday but she could just as easily be outclassed and be packed off to the Mares Hurdle. I've backed her purely as cover just in case Honeysuckle doesn't turn up in March. The fact that I've backed her says everything about the opposition to Henry's Mare.......really thin.

[Quevega]

I think she's plenty short given she's a G2 winner against a genuine G1 horse? Have to be better options for a roll up than her IMO over the weekend?

Fav at Uttoxeter in the first for starters

I don't think I'll bet in the Morgiana, but I defintiely wouldn't back her as fav.


Saldier, is hard to back ante post isn't he.... may well be a very fair price on the day given his profile now?

2 Grade 2's and a grade 1 (at novice level of course)

[Kevloaf]

2 Grade 2's and a grade 1 (at novice level of course)

That Punchestown G1 doesn't count. Top rated was 148. Should get stricken from the record.

I am not accepting that's a G1