Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Ray]

I like Eric Bloodaxe, but feel he could be one for further than the Supreme. Both Giggs and both with Joseph, I'm having trouble splitting him and Forged In Fire up, as feel either could go for the Ballymore.

Eric bloodaxe will most defo want further! Wouldnt have him as a supreme horse at all

[Kevloaf]

I've only just got around to watching Malone Road

Epatante's connections must be in pieces.




I did back Malone Road for the Supreme (95% cashout available) and Ballymore (100% cashout available).

I've deliberately waited before cashing out, having regretted cashing Shishkin and Ferny Hollow last year in the immediate aftermath of a defeat. I didn't want to be too rash this time. The point FM has mentioned though, about one more average run for a handicap will almost certainly go through Elliott's mind now and that is very off-putting alongside a defeat and poor hurdling display.




My strategy for these three novice hurdles will continue to be 'back the fancied ones before they run, cash out disappointments for small losses' to hopefully land on the dramatic shorteners. Anybody see any reason I shouldn't be cashing these bets out right now? Is he worth one more chance?

[Ray]

No f**k him hes shit

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've cashed Kev.

I expected him to be so much better than that.

[Saxon Warrior]

I've cashed out.
The moneys better off primed for reinvestment.
Not great jumping
Caught out for pace
The 3rd placed one gave him 5lb!!
I dont see Wajaaha or NGolo winning the Supreme or Ballymore, so can't see why Malone Road (2020 model) would do either.
Plus 33/1 freely available for both races for MR now, with cashout, with no-takers.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

We had this convo a while back Kev where despite absolutely agreeing with your novice hurdler strategy I couldn't get up for Malone Road for anything even with cashout. My concern was he would put in a mediocre performances like this (or get injured) and 365 would push him out massively and you would take a reasonable hit on on your stake or lose it all if injured. However, if anything you have been proven right, if you can still get 95% back on the back of that last performance that is a big bonus, and shows it was probably worth the risk to invest in the first place.

[jono]

Anybody see any reason I shouldn't be cashing these bets out right now? Is he worth one more chance?

Cashed out straight away. Like I said, for me he's way too fragile a horse to keep a bet going on the off chance things come good. I couldn't be confident i'll beat any high profile injury news nowadays to cash out in time with B365.

Without the benfit of hindsight of course but I think backers at the time could make excuses and have kept the faith for Ferny Hollow (though I did cash him out myself at the time) being keen, and Shishkin fell at the 2nd on hurdles debut. Not sure any can really be made for MR? Hasn't travelled through his races like his reputation would suggest and his jumping has caught the eye for all the wrong reasons. Experience, holding him up and a hood helped get the best of Ferny Hollow. Even if something similar, along with going up in trip is attempted then it'll surely be in a slightly lesser race now?

[Craigy14]

Think somebody nailed it about the pace of the race, if Malone Road was as good as we all hoped and potential prior to his injury, his jockey should have taken up and the running and won comfortably.

Neither did that, whether that is down to looking after the horse which is understandable but red flags that he has to be minded in the heat of battle doesn’t fill confidence either.

The jumping performance really was poor too which is what discipline he is in now.

[Kevloaf]

No f**k him hes shit

Not the most eloquent case you've ever made Ray, but looks like you're right.

I've cashed Kev.

I expected him to be so much better than that.

I don't want to be stubborn, and disregard Ngolo as bang average/not a Cheltenham prospect - but that was my gut feeling before and it is hard not to be disappointed that he isn't beating him fairly easily. Willie would have plenty better than Ngolo (assumption of course, but logical)

I've cashed out.
The moneys better off primed for reinvestment.
Not great jumping
Caught out for pace
The 3rd placed one gave him 5lb!!
I dont see Wajaaha or NGolo winning the Supreme or Ballymore, so can't see why Malone Road (2020 model) would do either.
Plus 33/1 freely available for both races for MR now, with cashout, with no-takers.

I agree the money is better primed for reinvestment, I don't think that is always the best way to consider cashing out however we are still in September!

We had this convo a while back Kev where despite absolutely agreeing with your novice hurdler strategy I couldn't get up for Malone Road for anything even with cashout. My concern was he would put in a mediocre performances like this (or get injured) and 365 would push him out massively and you would take a reasonable hit on on your stake or lose it all if injured. However, if anything you have been proven right, if you can still get 95% back on the back of that last performance that is a big bonus, and shows it was probably worth the risk to invest in the first place.

We did, I've taken a 0.1 pt loss on him so far so can't see me changing strategy. It will be hard to keep on top of unless I'm really on the ball. I'm nowhere near being on the ball at the moment, but the season hasn't properly started yet....still the calm before the storm for me.

I am not sure how I'll hold up when I do have a strong feeling against a horse and don't feel they're worth backing even with the low-risk strategy. We'll see! Will need people like you to keep it in the forefront on my mind!

Cashed out straight away. Like I said, for me he's way too fragile a horse to keep a bet going on the off chance things come good. I couldn't be confident i'll beat any high profile injury news nowadays to cash out in time with B365.

Without the benfit of hindsight of course but I think backers at the time could make excuses and have kept the faith for Ferny Hollow (though I did cash him out myself at the time) being keen, and Shishkin fell at the 2nd on hurdles debut. Not sure any can really be made for MR? Hasn't travelled through his races like his reputation would suggest and his jumping has caught the eye for all the wrong reasons. Experience, holding him up and a hood helped get the best of Ferny Hollow. Even if something similar, along with going up in trip is attempted then it'll surely be in a slightly lesser race now?

The only thing I'd suggest is his jumping, which after only 2 runs is clearly open to improvement...however, making excuses for not being good at getting over obstacles certainly isn't a factor I want to have to consider. Only exceptional horses can do that, and on what we've seen (even in his bumpers) he isn't exceptional.

Think somebody nailed it about the pace of the race, if Malone Road was as good as we all hoped and potential prior to his injury, his jockey should have taken up and the running and won comfortably.

Neither did that, whether that is down to looking after the horse which is understandable but red flags that he has to be minded in the heat of battle doesn’t fill confidence either.

The jumping performance really was poor too which is what discipline he is in now.

I do agree, the jumping is enough of issue for now...for all he could improve.




On balance, he's now cashed out for a 0.1 pt loss.

Thanks chumps.

[Lobos]

Cash him out.

[Chris]

Does any one think that Finest Evermore could be Albert Bartlett bound she appears to have bundles of stamina and a turn of foot. Interesting to she what price she might be if one of the lads would care to get her added

[taylorch1990]

It was as impressive as a novice hurdle this time of year can be. Her hurdling was superb low and fast from a to b.

[jonthehammer]

Does any one think that Finest Evermore could be Albert Bartlett bound she appears to have bundles of stamina and a turn of foot. Interesting to she what price she might be if one of the lads would care to get her added

14/1 Any race

[Kevloaf]

14/1 Any race

I hope you're highlighting that price to show how poor it is.

[Hurdles or chasing]

I hope you're highlighting that price to show how poor it is.

Its not that bad of a price when you look at her price for the mares novice best price 16s with WH but the next best is 12s and as low as 8s with PP. She couldn't have won any easier on her 3 starts for Mullins.

She almost certainly looks like her optimum trip will be over 2m but the same could have been said for Lets Dance and Colreevy. Got to be a good chance she ends up in the Mares Novice. Wouldn't be Mullins style running his good mares so early in if the season but its a bit of a mad year and im not sure when she was purchased but is that a good enough reason for her to be dismissed?

It probably is for me and at the price. I wont be backing her as I have missed the price for the mares novice and she could easily go up in trip but she has been very impressive. Be surprised if there is not one or 2 better in her own yard though.

14s any race was only pointed out for the mares novice angle id say.