Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[OverTheLast]

Only three horses can win festival novice hurdles so it’s a pretty safe statement to blindly throw out there pre-season. The same comment could be applied to a plethora of novice hurdlers and you’d likely be right on most occasions. However, as I’m a fan of Uhtred, I’ll indulge your informed, well researched post

Even if you don’t like the way Uhtred won his listed bumper last season (I’d advise checking out the past winners), Dewcup has been providing some fairly solid form boosts throughout the summer. He raced twice on the flat and finished second twice. Firstly to a horse rated 94 now and secondly to a horse rated 104 (ground far from ideal either). That shows that Dewcup is no mug on the level and yet he could not land a blow on Uhtred in that listed bumper and was readily dispatched. Dewcup has now come out and won two hurdle races in good style and will now be aimed at better races (Royal Bond mooted as a target). Now, as this is early season form, Dewcup could be just beating muck and it could amount to nothing, but he’s done it well nonetheless and it’s all we have to go on until he steps up a grade. Is it good form? Maybe. Should it be dismissed without keeping an eye on it? No.

If i wanted a horse to be a supreme winner then I'd be wanting him to beat Front View by a good distance, which Uhtred failed to even beat in Cork last November over hurdles. The form of the listed bumper (while visually impressive) to me doesn't look great - Dewcup beat a couple of poor fields and Pencilfulloflead hasn't done much for it. IMO Uhtred debut bumper win was nice on the eye, but the hurdles run leaves questions marks to me - he will be a handicap horse IMO for the festival.

[Lobos]

Just watched Gaspard D Soeil race back. Went very slow, keen early, ballooned a few hurdles and jumped a couple slow and untidy but that would be down to pace and wouldn't harm him at all. Always travelled well. Race turned into a sprint final half mile which wasn't ideal. The winner was hugely experienced from flat and second has already had 2 runs this season so fitness and experience would have been to their advantage. Rachel didn't get into him at all. Work in progress. Better race and faster pace will help. Next time we'll see a different horse. Happy to have him on board.

[ComplyOrDie]

Now have Uthred on board . Took the 20/1 TWAR with Hills just in case he goes the same route as some of those earlier winners of the Bumper he won.

I think this is the best option for Uhtred currently.

I don't see him as the stand out option for Gigginstown in any of the main novice hurdle races, but can easily see him being one for a handicap, like the Martin Pipe.

[Ray]

I dont like uhtred for a handicap personally, the stronger stables are always getting stronger they will most likely be winning the handicaps with strong horses who arent the top boys in the stable, like liverpool selling a benchwarmer for him to be a first team player for west brom

[ComplyOrDie]

I dont like uhtred for a handicap personally, the stronger stables are always getting stronger they will most likely be winning the handicaps with strong horses who arent the top boys in the stable, like liverpool selling a benchwarmer for him to be a first team player for west brom

I'm not sure I follow Ray.

Uhtred is trained by Joseph O'Brien, winner of two festival handicaps so far, from a small amount of runners compared with many, and owned by Gigginstown who are renown for having a handicap winner or two.

[JackieMoon33]

I think this is the best option for Uhtred currently.

I don't see him as the stand out option for Gigginstown in any of the main novice hurdle races, but can easily see him being one for a handicap, like the Martin Pipe.

It is entirely possible that Uhtred ends up in a handicap but I think people are too quick to try and find the 'Gigginstown Martin Pipe horse' each season. They have another army of novice hurdlers to go to war with and until they start running, you won't know which horses will have a plot in place for handicapping.

I'm greedy, stubborn and only playing at ante post betting so the more sensible approach would be the TWAR market.

[ComplyOrDie]

It is entirely possible that Uhtred ends up in a handicap but I think people are too quick to try and find the 'Gigginstown Martin Pipe horse' each season. They have another army of novice hurdlers to go to war with and until they start running, you won't know which horses will have a plot in place for handicapping.

I'm greedy, stubborn and only playing at ante post betting so the more sensible approach would be the TWAR market.

Whilst I name checked the Martin Pipe (probably because of the recency bias in finding the Giggs horse as you noted), it could easily be the Coral Cup, or further still, the Bartlett. I think we have already discussed Uhtred previously Jackie, it's not specifically the Martin Pipe, but a certain step up in trip beyond 2m for Uhtred is how I see him currently.

[JackieMoon33]

If i wanted a horse to be a supreme winner then I'd be wanting him to beat Front View by a good distance, which Uhtred failed to even beat in Cork last November over hurdles. The form of the listed bumper (while visually impressive) to me doesn't look great - Dewcup beat a couple of poor fields and Pencilfulloflead hasn't done much for it. IMO Uhtred debut bumper win was nice on the eye, but the hurdles run leaves questions marks to me - he will be a handicap horse IMO for the festival.

Although I'm setting myself up to fail here, the loss to Front View wasn't entirely a negative when you look at the wider picture.

At that point in time Front View had posted better bumper form than Uhtred and had won at the Punchestown festival.
Front View had run in 3 bumpers and a hurdle race versus Uhtred's solitary bumper run so was the more experienced horse.
Front View had already made his hurdles debut that season and was race fit (losing 6.5l to Envoi Allen) whereas Uhtred had been off the track for 210 days.
Front View went off 5/4f in the race with Uhtred who was 15/2.
The fact that Front View ended up running in a handicap at the Festival is not necessarily a reflection of his ability, more a reflection on the owner and trainer plotting him in that way.

On the Dewcup subject, yes he did beat poor fields but then every novice race at this time of the season will contain mostly muck so it's tough to dismiss a horse on that basis. Nearly every novice hurdle winner at the festival probably beat nothing but trees on debut so it is pretty meaningless until they step up in grade.

This is of course, all just my opinion and possibly not one of my best, I'm not heavily invested in Uhtred but do think he could be a decent horse this season and be running in the Supreme.

[Lobos]

Whilst I name checked the Martin Pipe (probably because of the recency bias in finding the Giggs horse as you noted), it could easily be the Coral Cup, or further still, the Bartlett. I think we have already discussed Uhtred previously Jackie, it's not specifically the Martin Pipe, but a certain step up in trip beyond 2m for Uhtred is how I see him currently.

That's how I view it. Previous winners of his Bumper success, Envoi, Samcro, Don Cossack, were all upped in trip.

[JackieMoon33]

That's how I view it. Previous winners of his Bumper success, Envoi, Samcro, Don Cossack, were all upped in trip.

Although I like the creature of habits angle that Gigginstown have targeted that race with their better horses, the distance that those horses ran in the following season surely has no relevance?

[Lobos]

Although I like the creature of habits angle that Gigginstown have targeted that race with their better horses, the distance that those horses ran in the following season surely has no relevance?

No, just that that Bumper has produced Stayers from several of it previous winners.

[Craigy14]

I dont like uhtred for a handicap personally, the stronger stables are always getting stronger they will most likely be winning the handicaps with strong horses who arent the top boys in the stable, like liverpool selling a benchwarmer for him to be a first team player for west brom

Same trainer won the Martin pipe just a year ago so I wouldn’t be too sure Ray.

[ComplyOrDie]

Another for the 'could be anything' Gigginstown category is Grangeclare Native, who now has an entry the same day as Quilixios.

Definitely will need a trip, again anywhere from 2m 4f (where he starts out on Saturday) to 3m.

Probably one for the any race category.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Another for the 'could be anything' Gigginstown category is Grangeclare Native, who now has an entry the same day as Quilixios.

Definitely will need a trip, again anywhere from 2m 4f (where he starts out on Saturday) to 3m.

Probably one for the any race category.

He's a huge price for the AB and that's where I'd be looking at, at this early stage.

[ComplyOrDie]

He's a huge price for the AB and that's where I'd be looking at, at this early stage.

Yeah, I got that requested some time back.