Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[JackieMoon33]

Very complicated by Ferney Hollow and Malone Road with same connections. Interesting how all 3 go and how that pans out re targets.

It will probably all change plenty over the course of the season.

[Lobos]

It will probably all change plenty over the course of the season.

Definitely. All 3 won't make it there according to Arch !!

[archie]

Anyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.

Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.

[Ray]

Yeah, if this was social media, id like that comment

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.

Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.

I mean, with the exception of winning at the festival (of which we don't know how solid that form will be yet), you could say the same for Ferny Hollow also. Two defeats, then a win against a horse in 2nd who was beat 29 lengths and 6 lengths previously, and a horse in 3rd who was hammered by one you know well Archie, Captain Kangaroo, next time out.

[JackieMoon33]

Outside of the main bumper races throughout the season, there is a lot of garbage running in those other races each week and trying to take collateral form from them is almost a pointless exercise. I'm not defending the price on Ballyadam, but the race he won was pure muck and I would not expect any substance to come out of the race.

Does that mean he's not a good horse? No; it just means the field he beat was pony and until he's in a better race, we'll never know for sure.

And to show how well 'bad' bumpers can work out, Shishkin easily took apart his opponents in his only bumper win at Kempton. From 24 runs, no other horse from that field has won a race since and only two have placed. 114 is the highest rated hurdler that has achieved a mark since.

[archie]

Outside of the main bumper races throughout the season, there is a lot of garbage running in those other races each week and trying to take collateral form from them is almost a pointless exercise. I'm not defending the price on Ballyadam, but the race he won was pure muck and I would not expect any substance to come out of the race.

Does that mean he's not a good horse? No; it just means the field he beat was pony and until he's in a better race, we'll never know for sure.

That's the point that I've been trying to make for months. Everyone who backs him is doing it on the word of the amateur jockey and we all know that jockeys are the worst tipsters. Patrick Mullins has ridden rather more good horses but his tipping is, at best, moderate.

[archie]

I mean, with the exception of winning at the festival (of which we don't know how solid that form will be yet), you could say the same for Ferny Hollow also. Two defeats, then a win against a horse in 2nd who was beat 29 lengths and 6 lengths previously, and a horse in 3rd who was hammered by one you know well Archie, Captain Kangaroo, next time out.

Ferny Hollow was beaten by good horses the first couple of times and slotted RPRs of 128 both times. His wins were 136 and 141. Ballyadam went from being beaten and recording 119 to winning at 122. As you well know, Captain Kangaroo recorded 127 in his only race (and Bob Olinger 135 ditto) but connections aren't going mad because, with Punchestown being abandonned, they simply don't know. All they do know is that, on the public form, Joey shouldn't be twice the price of Ballyadam.

[Istabraq]

Anyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.
.

Sounds like a prep for the County hurdle that archie...

[jack1092]

Anyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.

Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.

Listen Dear won hers by 37L there so he has some work to do unfortunately

Even given her "good" ground over his yielding...she ran 2m2 in 4m7.3...Ballyadam ran 2m1 1/2 in 4m25.90

Obviously times are worth very little....but worth taking that into consideration even just a little.

[ComplyOrDie]

Weights confirmed

Jon Snow 11st 12lb
Wajaaha 11st 12lb
Fusain 11st 7lb
N'Golo 11st 7lb
Malone Road 11st 7lb
Dewcup 11st 7lb
Shewearsitwell 11st 0lb

Only a 5 horse race, no Jon Snow, as predicted. No Dewcup or Shewearsitwell either.

[JackieMoon33]

That's the point that I've been trying to make for months. Everyone who backs him is doing it on the word of the amateur jockey and we all know that jockeys are the worst tipsters. Patrick Mullins has ridden rather more good horses but his tipping is, at best, moderate.

I'm not sure people are backing him entirely on the word of an amateur jockey. Like all bumper horses, punters have to consider many angles (visuals, times, PtP form, sales price, trainer targets/habits, post race comments etc), especially when a bumper horse does not run at the big festivals. We all know that avoiding the Cheltenham bumper can often work out in a novice hurdlers favour so I have no problem backing noivce hurdlers that only won an egg and spoon bumper.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not sure people are backing him entirely on the word of an amateur jockey. Like all bumper horses, punters have to consider many angles (visuals, times, PtP form, sales price, trainer targets/habits, post race comments etc), especially when a bumper horse does not run at the big festivals. We all know that avoiding the Cheltenham bumper can often work out in a novice hurdlers favour so I have no problem backing noivce hurdlers that only won an egg and spoon bumper.

Exactly, he wouldn't be the first horse to win a really poor bumper to go on to much better things. From most recently (that I can think of) many were saying the exact same thing about Samcro (for quite a long time as it happened, including some well thought of members on here), his bumper was rubbish, and he only recorded an RPR of 118, but that didn't end too bad at the festival the following season

The obvious difference with Samcro was he then performed again in bumpers throughout the season, something Ballyadam hasn't been able to prove as of yet.

[JackieMoon33]

Exactly, he wouldn't be the first horse to win a really poor bumper to go on to much better things. From most recently (that I can think of) many were saying the exact same thing about Samcro (for quite a long time as it happened, including some well thought of members on here), his bumper was rubbish, and he only recorded an RPR of 118, but that didn't end too bad at the festival the following season

The obvious difference with Samcro was he then performed again in bumpers throughout the season, something Ballyadam hasn't been able to prove as of yet.

Some trainers just aren't that interested in slogging their young horses in bumpers either. Henderson merely gains experience for them and keeps things low key, but he's got a damn good record with novice hurdlers.

[Lobos]

Ferny Hollow was beaten by good horses the first couple of times and slotted RPRs of 128 both times. His wins were 136 and 141. Ballyadam went from being beaten and recording 119 to winning at 122. As you well know, Captain Kangaroo recorded 127 in his only race (and Bob Olinger 135 ditto) but connections aren't going mad because, with Punchestown being abandonned, they simply don't know. All they do know is that, on the public form, Joey shouldn't be twice the price of Ballyadam.

Loving the 'nickname' Joey.