Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Quevega]

Yeah that sounds shocking..this year i drunk lager all day on the thursday on the friday morning i had the worst headache of my life so did a couple of other pals..anyone else get that?

Headache ? After drinking heavily the previous day ?

Never heard of that Ray. Must have been poisoned

[Ray]

I drunk heavy all week but the lager seemed to be crap and flat then the splitting headache i couldnt touch anything until the gold cup

[Quevega]

Must have been terrible.
Glad you’re alive and well to tell the tale.

[Ray]

Im just saying carlsberg need to up the game at the festival

[Saxon Warrior]

Racing back on in Ireland from 8th June.

Racing Post in the last half hour.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/coronavirus/racing-in-ireland-set-to-return-on-june-8-after-receiving-government-approval/434094

and Irish Racing confirm too

http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Horse-racing-in-Ireland-to-resume-on-June-8&prid=208550

[Quevega]

Im just saying carlsberg need to up the game at the festival

You’re probably right

[Istabraq]

Racing back on in Ireland from 8th June.

Racing Post in the last half hour.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/coronavirus/racing-in-ireland-set-to-return-on-june-8-after-receiving-government-approval/434094

and Irish Racing confirm too

http://www.irishracing.com/news?head...-8&prid=208550

Can't be long before the bible go back to print ?
Plenty of European action these days though suspect they might hold off for 1 June and the resumption of UK racing...

[OverTheLast]

Hi Lads new to the forum!

My AP bets so far

Ferny Hollow - Supreme (ranging 11-16) on the Exchange
Allaho - Ryanair 10.5 (BF Ex)
Bob Olinger - Ballymore 25/26/27 (BF Ex)

And one I've not seen many mention! Cobblers Way (RSA at 46 and 85) On the Exchange .. it's going to be a very strong division this year but he is a horse I like, and whilst he folded tamely in the AB he is with the right man to improve for a fence.

Aware there are bigger prices around most of my selections with other firms but I like to play mostly on Betfair.

[Quevega]

https://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Found this Kelly Criterion calculator online today.
It's not completely usable for me as I will not risk my Bank to any extent like this suggests.
But it can be very useful to help you to gauge your staking levels. The more of you're Bank it suggests you bet, the bigger value you're getting. So on a small level, a one point bet would become 2pts' or higher (each individual can set there own rules within their means and how much of the Bank you are willing to risk on one bet)

BUT - it is vital that you have a good grasp and have the skill to evaluate the true odds when comparing the available odds and ascertaining value. This can be easier with smaller fields and other betting mediums (not horseracing)

I quite often like to bet bigger stakes when the race has few runners in with a serious chance of winning, and the main contenders prices seem too far apart.

Altior vs Cyrname is a prime example.
BDD vs Honeysuckle was similar.

Both these were effectively matches and at times during the lead up to the race itself the prices were wrong. IMO.

[Quevega]

The best way to describe the idea behind the Kelly criterion is if you were offered prices on a coin toss as follows.

Heads 6/4
Tails 4/6


The toss will happen multiple times, so you can make a bet on each toss at the same odds.

You have a Bank of £100.
You know the true odds are 50/50
What would the best staking plan be ?

Answer.
Definitely always bet on heads. (just for you King Pimm)
Don't bet all the Bank on the first spin as there's still a 40% chance of losing.

Bet approx 15/20% of your Bank on each spin.
Think the calculator makes it about 16.67% exactly.

To be clear again.
I do not use it to determine how much of my Bank to use but the bigger the value the bigger my stake.

It can be useful when having a day out and have a budget to bet with though. And can help you to achieve a more scientific staking plan, rather than £10 per race for example.

You do need to be prepared and able to price up your own races though. And get realistic outcomes, that are not overly influenced by any irrational bias.

[The King Pimm]

I like that theory Q but I’ll probably end up betting on the reserve horse too just incase

[Quevega]

I like that theory Q but I’ll probably end up betting on the reserve horse too just incase

Legend

[7barrows]

Anyone interested in Quilxios for next year might be interested that the second from his debut, Yes Indeed, runs at Autueil on Saturday for Macaire. Obviously Quilxios now with Cheveley and is with Gordon I believe. It's 20 for any race with Hills, which would cover the Boodles as well just in case. His debut is worth a view.

Is yes indeed still booked to run at auteuil tomorrow?

[riccirich]

Is yes indeed still booked to run at auteuil tomorrow?

Yeah he's 4/1 with hills, im trying to figure out if that's value or not

[taylorch1990]

Is yes indeed still booked to run at auteuil tomorrow?

The 4th behind Quilxios (I'm Walkin) also runs in the same race tomorrow, so there'll be a decent guide to the form.