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Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    The colours; and they're all warm favourites for their races....

    It's not like it's Saldier, Min and Benie Des Dieux



    CPS's 'chances' I feel improved this weekend, Monkfish remains the clear one to beat and Royal Pagaille would go off closer to evens...


    ....and the colours, obviously.
    I think CPS's chances did and didn't.

    We might get a Champion Chase with more runners than normal by the looks of it.
    More runners = more problems (potential challengers and mishaps)

    That's what P diddy & Mace said anyway.

    Monkfish and CPS prices look a little short IMO and likely to be available at bigger come the day.
    Not for certain of course as subsequent events may decide differently, but on the balance of probability i'd say the prices are tight right now.
    Obviously the other extremely unlikely to run anyway.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

      I think CPS's chances did and didn't.

      We might get a Champion Chase with more runners than normal by the looks of it.
      More runners = more problems (potential challengers and mishaps)

      That's what P diddy & Mace said anyway.

      Monkfish and CPS prices look a little short IMO and likely to be available at bigger come the day.
      Not for certain of course as subsequent events may decide differently, but on the balance of probability i'd say the prices are tight right now.
      Obviously the other extremely unlikely to run anyway.
      I think I'd rather chance that 'double' now though before the DRF, where CPS could go odds on?

      Then again, if Royal Pagaille is a non-runner, it'll get settled at SP - so the 'double' would actually be better on it's own

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

        I think I'd rather chance that 'double' now though before the DRF, where CPS could go odds on?

        Then again, if Royal Pagaille is a non-runner, it'll get settled at SP - so the 'double' would actually be better on it's own
        It's a tricky one CPS's price as he won't have faced any credible UK horses aside from Defi. - which don't look so good right now.
        And then the formlines with the mare - also not great.
        With several popular horses and up and cummers I'd be surprised if his price is not bigger on the day, or at decs.
        But I suppose it could also cut up quite a bit.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

          It's a tricky one CPS's price as he won't have faced any credible UK horses aside from Defi. - which don't look so good right now.
          And then the formlines with the mare - also not great.
          With several popular horses and up and cummers I'd be surprised if his price is not bigger on the day, or at decs.
          But I suppose it could also cut up quite a bit.
          First Flow, Nube Negra?

          Politilogue, Altior?

          Then horses he's already beaten....


          FF won't be popular unless it's heavy. Altior and Politilogue both been beaten with no excuses (for the forces of old?)

          Nube Negra zipping around Kempton could gain a bit of momentum I suppose?



          I think Chacun Pour Soi will be shorter, as I think he'll win at the DRF.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

            First Flow, Nube Negra?

            Politilogue, Altior?

            Then horses he's already beaten....


            FF won't be popular unless it's heavy. Altior and Politilogue both been beaten with no excuses (for the forces of old?)

            Nube Negra zipping around Kempton could gain a bit of momentum I suppose?



            I think Chacun Pour Soi will be shorter, as I think he'll win at the DRF.
            He's even money or thereabouts already.
            I find it hard to justify with his form, him being odds on against the likely field.
            If he does, then they've priced it up wrong.

            I know he beat Min, but you could get a decent five a side team out for horses that beat Min over 2 miles, with Simply Ned in goal.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

              He's even money or thereabouts already.
              I find it hard to justify with his form, him being odds on against the likely field.
              If he does, then they've priced it up wrong.

              I know he beat Min, but you could get a decent five a side team out for horses that beat Min over 2 miles, with Simply Ned in goal.
              Yeah possibly, not backing myself into a corner with Chacun Pour Soi, he isn't the most solid favourite around that price to be getting stuck in to.

              I do think the bet has an upside...but it's not standout by any stretch.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                He's even money or thereabouts already.
                I find it hard to justify with his form, him being odds on against the likely field.
                If he does, then they've priced it up wrong.

                I know he beat Min, but you could get a decent five a side team out for horses that beat Min over 2 miles, with Simply Ned in goal.
                I’d have to disagree I think he’s an absolute certainty to beat this field. The British challengers are either second rate or way past their best. The biggest challenge for cps is getting there in one piece. He should be odds on to beat this field

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                  He's even money or thereabouts already.
                  I find it hard to justify with his form, him being odds on against the likely field.
                  If he does, then they've priced it up wrong.

                  I know he beat Min, but you could get a decent five a side team out for horses that beat Min over 2 miles, with Simply Ned in goal.
                  Q, I agree.

                  Evens is a poor antepost price for the horse IMHO - albeit with the best rating (just) in the race.

                  Its not as if he’s a Cheltenham winner, or will be racing only horses that he has already beaten pointless, or if he has won on a track like Cheltenham before.

                  He could win, but nearly two months ahead of time at Even money?

                  There must be better Even money shots running most racedays that we could back, or put in a double as a rollover with a Festival horse.

                  We all have different strategies, and my preference would be on having an even money shot now, with a Festival horse, in a double, picking one that’s declared and running this week (rather than putting in Envoi Allen, Shishkin, CPS etc).

                  But we all pay our money and take our choices. Any way could be the right way.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • Paddy Powers latest offer Monkfish/Chacun/Min 40/1

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                    • Originally posted by Johnoman66 View Post
                      Paddy Powers latest offer Monkfish/Chacun/Min 40/1
                      Just to note, this is available 43/1 with 365 without NRNB.

                      It has no appeal to me either way.

                      Comment


                      • I know we have to get this festival over us first but what are people’s thoughts on sir gerhards target next year?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                          Just to note, this is available 43/1 with 365 without NRNB.

                          It has no appeal to me either way.
                          ....and less than 24 hours later, I've put a free bet on it

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Arkle View Post
                            I know we have to get this festival over us first but what are people’s thoughts on sir gerhards target next year?
                            Looks to possess a very good turn of foot from his bumper runs so could easily stay at 2m, I requested SG to win the bumper and any race next year and it came back at 33s which i thought was reasonably fair and saves the headache of taking an educated guess at his target.

                            Comment


                            • Worth mentioning that the next batch of entries (Supreme, Ballymore, Bartlett, Triumph) are due tomorrow, so might be worth checking through your bets carefully to see if anything is worth cashing out.

                              I've reluctantly cashed my 50/1 Supreme bet on Fly Smart just in case he isn't entered in it.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by isitmarchyet View Post
                                Worth mentioning that the next batch of entries (Supreme, Ballymore, Bartlett, Triumph) are due tomorrow, so might be worth checking through your bets carefully to see if anything is worth cashing out.

                                I've reluctantly cashed my 50/1 Supreme bet on Fly Smart just in case he isn't entered in it.
                                Thanks March. Do you know if the Bumper entries come out now?

                                Comment

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