Ferny Hollow, Bob Olinger, Appreciate It, Galopin des Champs

[Saxon Warrior]

As he’s no longer a novice he would only need one run, half-fitt, to get a mark for the county hurdle

Crikey, I'm a long way from putting a handicap mark on anything for March.

I doubt Willie Mullins thinks French Aseel is a County Hurdle horse at this point.

He will give him every chance in Graded Hurdles and leave picking handicappers until the entries in mid-Feb..

Completely different mindset to Gordon.

[ComplyOrDie]

Crikey, I'm a long way from putting a handicap mark on anything for March.

I doubt Willie Mullins thinks French Aseel is a County Hurdle horse at this point.

He will give him every chance in Graded Hurdles and leave picking handicappers until the entries in mid-Feb..

Completely different mindset to Gordon.

Yeah, French Aseel deserves his chance to replicate and go beyond what he done at Leopardstown last season. That was a mighty performance.

I'm sure he'll be given every chance at the top level should he be good enough.

[Topofthegame2021]

And French Aseel who could have been the best Juvenile Hurdler of last season, if Willie had managed to run him after he got him.

I think he could be a very good 2M hurdler this season.

Me and you both SW!

Wins the CH, then goes over fences and wins the Arkle.


I don’t see any holes in that plan

[ComplyOrDie]

Me and you both SW!

Wins the CH, then goes over fences and wins the Arkle.


I don’t see any holes in that plan

Perfect, and even if he doesn't win the CH, he can still win the Arkle next season

[Saxon Warrior]

Me and you both SW!

Wins the CH, then goes over fences and wins the Arkle.


I don’t see any holes in that plan

Yes, it almost feels like its already happened.

[Quevega]

I still think Ferny Hollow staying over hurdles remains a possibility. I don't doubt he's been schooled over fences, or Willie wouldn't have raised chasing as a possibility, but once they think it through keeping Ferny as a young, inexperienced horse back for a full season over hurdles has to be a strong possibility. He can still be switched to fences if something happens to one of the others, of which there is a absolute conveyor belt of talent this season.

What's perhaps influencing the current thinking at Closutton is that they potentially have Ferny, Echoes In Rain, plus stalwarts Sharjah and Saldier for the Champion Hurdle. Perhaps it may be better to have two top darts for novice chasing, and that splitting Ferny and Appreciate It across the Arkle and Marsh feels like a good plan. Let's not forget Ferny has already beaten Bob O in a novice hurdle and Willie will probably fancy him to do it again over fences.

However, will Sharjah and Saldier really trouble Honeysuckle? It's too early to say with Echoes In Rain of course, but we know that Ferny Hollow has the basic ability to potentially make up into a top Champion Hurdle horse.

The one additional consideration with Ferny would be if Willie thinks he is likely to need a step up in trip this season. He's a Westerner out of a Good Thyme mare, and it's not a profile that screams out minimum trip. Most Westerner's end up at 3 miles and, Brave Inca apart, so do Good Thyme's. And even then I know they thought BI would be better over further and had to resist going up in trip.

If Ferny needs a step up in trip, and they view him as Festival horse there is no intermediate hurdle option, and it could be he ends up being the number 1 Marsh dart taking on Bob O who he's beaten before.

I think after his Supreme demolition job it would be a surprise if Appreciate It didn't end up in the Arkle. Galopin Des Champs is nailed on to go to the RSA. Bob O logically goes to the Marsh unless Henry bottles it to avoid something else, and Ferny either goes Champion Hurdle or Marsh, and I can see a case for either route, and why they'd do so.

My own preference would be to hold Ferny back for a season and see if he can win a Champion Hurdle. He's young enough to down the novice chase route next season, and Classic Getaway and Grangeclare West don't appear to be blessed with the speed he is, so it's relatively straightforward to split up the Cheveley horses. They then have the sharper looking Guily Billy for the bumper this season and then the Supreme or Ballymore next season.

If Ballyadam is going chasing it certainly helps the theory of Ferny Hollow going to the Marsh.

Willie - Appreciate It vs Ballyadam Henry - in the arkle
Willie - Ferny Hollow vs Bob Olinger Henry - in the Marsh.

Obviously it's what happens in the races between now and then, and IMO it probably won't turn out this way, but it may not be far off, as they'll have to shuffle them around somehow if they all stay fit. You'd expect the big 2 would avoid each other if possible especially if still the big 2 after we pass Feb.
And you'd expect that Cheveley would prefer to separate any of theirs also.

Anyway I hate this type of chat, even though it has to be thought through to make decisions, which is why I brought it up, cos I was thinking about it

[Maxfield]

But Cheveley also have Ballyadam who's likely to be Arkle bound.

To be fair I don't think Ballyadam will make any difference in the decision as to where Ferney Hollow's goes.

I personally believe that the fact that Mullins is 65 and realistically may have 5 to 8 years left in racing before he decides to retire he doesn't want to retire with the comments "Mullins holds the record wins at Cheltenham but never won The queen Mother race" being the champion trainer that he is and the fact he has gone so close to winning the QM and should have with Douvan, he might not say it out loud but you know he wants to win the Queen Mother more than any race now. That's why I'm not convinced that Allaho will go for the Ryanair again and will be aimed at The Queen Mother and have 3 darts at Shishkin and if Shishkin turns out to be as good as Henderson thinks he is then Ferney Hollow being a year younger then Appreciate It will have two good years at that race.

Maybe I over think things and maybe Mullins really doesn't care if he retires without winning the Queen Mother, but my guess is he really wants that last big race on his CV and if that is the case then it makes sense for Ferney Hollow to target the Arkle rather than Appreciate It who has always be quoted as a horse who will be better over a further trip. He might have won the Supreme by a mile, but what would a fit Ferney Hollow have won that race by...

[DeeBee]

I don’t think Ballyadam makes a difference but for different reasons to the above… Cheveley have frequently ran more than one of theirs in races on the flat.. ultimately they want them where they have their best chance of winning.. that may well be Ferney over further but I don’t think Ballyadam dictates that… We don’t even know if Ballyadam will be good enough to win an Arkle at this stage so might not end up there anyway

[Brooksie]

To be fair I don't think Ballyadam will make any difference in the decision as to where Ferney Hollow's goes.

I personally believe that the fact that Mullins is 65 and realistically may have 5 to 8 years left in racing before he decides to retire he doesn't want to retire with the comments "Mullins holds the record wins at Cheltenham but never won The queen Mother race" being the champion trainer that he is and the fact he has gone so close to winning the QM and should have with Douvan, he might not say it out loud but you know he wants to win the Queen Mother more than any race now. That's why I'm not convinced that Allaho will go for the Ryanair again and will be aimed at The Queen Mother and have 3 darts at Shishkin and if Shishkin turns out to be as good as Henderson thinks he is then Ferney Hollow being a year younger then Appreciate It will have two good years at that race.

Maybe I over think things and maybe Mullins really doesn't care if he retires without winning the Queen Mother, but my guess is he really wants that last big race on his CV and if that is the case then it makes sense for Ferney Hollow to target the Arkle rather than Appreciate It who has always be quoted as a horse who will be better over a further trip. He might have won the Supreme by a mile, but what would a fit Ferney Hollow have won that race by...

Why would they ruin Allaho's chances of a 2nd Cheltenham festival win? Willie will place his horses where he believes they have the most chance of winning, and its pretty obvious Allaho's best chance of winning at the festival next year would be the Ryanair. I mean you only have to look down the list right now. Would he like to face up against Fakir Doudaires and Janidil or Shishkin, Energumene and Chacun? It would be daft to believe Mullins would ruin a horse and owners chance of a winner because he hasn't won the QM yet.

[ToniC]

Why would they ruin Allaho's chances of a 2nd Cheltenham festival win? Willie will place his horses where he believes they have the most chance of winning, and its pretty obvious Allaho's best chance of winning at the festival next year would be the Ryanair. I mean you only have to look down the list right now. Would he like to face up against Fakir Doudaires and Janidil or Shishkin, Energumene and Chacun? It would be daft to believe Mullins would ruin a horse and owners chance of a winner because he hasn't won the QM yet.

Yep, ran Vautour here instead of the Gold Cup, Allaho must be 1.01 to run here, Im just holding out on him getting beat this winter and hopefully take a bit bigger price.

[Maxfield]

Why would they ruin Allaho's chances of a 2nd Cheltenham festival win? Willie will place his horses where he believes they have the most chance of winning, and its pretty obvious Allaho's best chance of winning at the festival next year would be the Ryanair. I mean you only have to look down the list right now. Would he like to face up against Fakir Doudaires and Janidil or Shishkin, Energumene and Chacun? It would be daft to believe Mullins would ruin a horse and owners chance of a winner because he hasn't won the QM yet.

I wouldn't say I'm daft. I actually think that Allaho should run in the Ryanair and he will more than likely run in it, but I said I 'm not certain he will. Reasons being that Mullins experimented on him at Punchestown. Did he fail that experiment after beating Nube Negra by 19 lengths who was 1/2 length from winning the Queen Mother and beating First Flow by 36 lengths who was 6th in the Queen Mother. I would say that Allaho had the hardest race out of all the horses that lined up at Punchestown and for a horse who hadn't won at that track before on two previous visits, I personally think he ran well. Are Cheveley Park Stud happy paying over 300k plus on horses to win 3 bumpers, a handicap race that isn't around anymore, a Ballymore and a Ryanair.
I don't bet on straight win so he isn't a bet for me in the Ryanair, but I would get him covered in an e/w double or treble, but I won’t until I'm certain he will go for that race. Remember Min and Un De Sceaux could have won an extra Ryanair (easier race) rather than taking on Sprinter Sacre and Altoir, who they were never going to beat. Reason why they took them on is the same reason why only one horse has ever won the Ryanair twice, is mainly because trainers and Owners would rather have a go at the Queen Mother imo the 2^nd biggest race to win at Cheltenham. He will at least have both options open and maybe I’m wrong but I can’t see Mullins committing to just the Ryanair at this early stage..

[Quevega]

I wouldn't say I'm daft. I actually think that Allaho should run in the Ryanair and he will more than likely run in it, but I said I 'm not certain he will. Reasons being that Mullins experimented on him at Punchestown. Did he fail that experiment after beating Nube Negra by 19 lengths who was 1/2 length from winning the Queen Mother and beating First Flow by 36 lengths who was 6th in the Queen Mother. I would say that Allaho had the hardest race out of all the horses that lined up at Punchestown and for a horse who hadn't won at that track before on two previous visits, I personally think he ran well. Are Cheveley Park Stud happy paying over 300k plus on horses to win 3 bumpers, a handicap race that isn't around anymore, a Ballymore and a Ryanair.
I don't bet on straight win so he isn't a bet for me in the Ryanair, but I would get him covered in an e/w double or treble, but I won’t until I'm certain he will go for that race. Remember Min and Un De Sceaux could have won an extra Ryanair (easier race) rather than taking on Sprinter Sacre and Altoir, who they were never going to beat. Reason why they took them on is the same reason why only one horse has ever won the Ryanair twice, is mainly because trainers and Owners would rather have a go at the Queen Mother imo the 2^nd biggest race to win at Cheltenham. He will at least have both options open and maybe I’m wrong but I can’t see Mullins committing to just the Ryanair at this early stage..

I think a lot of those past decisions on which race to run in were heavily influenced by the Ruby Walsh factor.
But I agree that prestige would have an influence.
Not in this case though I reckon.

The biggest factor is going to be the ammunition he has available to him before final decs are made.
And how they've all performed in the season so far obviously.
The problem with Allaho for the 2 mile division early season is the other 2 he has, are still fit and well as we speak.
Probably more likely to try him over 3 miles again than anything else. IMO.

[Maxfield]

I think a lot of those past decisions on which race to run in were heavily influenced by the Ruby Walsh factor.
But I agree that prestige would have an influence.
Not in this case though I reckon.

The biggest factor is going to be the ammunition he has available to him before final decs are made.
And how they've all performed in the season so far obviously.
The problem with Allaho for the 2 mile division early season is the other 2 he has, are still fit and well as we speak.
Probably more likely to try him over 3 miles again than anything else. IMO.

To be fair he is more likely to go up in trip than down, but he’s one of those horses that could run in either races, so he is such a hard horse to call right now as I think he could challenge top three in all the races, but yes of course he has more chance of actually winning the Ryanair based on last years win. At the moment I just can’t back him yet.

[Lobos]

I think a lot of those past decisions on which race to run in were heavily influenced by the Ruby Walsh factor.
But I agree that prestige would have an influence.
Not in this case though I reckon.

The biggest factor is going to be the ammunition he has available to him before final decs are made.
And how they've all performed in the season so far obviously.
The problem with Allaho for the 2 mile division early season is the other 2 he has, are still fit and well as we speak.
Probably more likely to try him over 3 miles again than anything else. IMO.

I too don't think Mullins will give up on the Allaho 2 mile adventure......just yet. Chacun for me doesn't like the Cheltenham hill. Energumene hasn't even tried it yet and has a tendency to jump right plus would, imo, prefer genuine soft ground to show his best. Allaho on the other hand clearly loves jumping around Cheltenham and we can't say for certain that he'd not be as effective around Prestbury over the minimum trip. Its not over yet.

P S. Forget the going up in trip. They've tried that and he clearly does not stay in the highest company and certainly would be found out big time over 3m 2f at Cheltenham. He should be any price for the GC. It won't happen.


IMO.....

[charlie]

I too don't think Mullins will give up on the Allaho 2 mile adventure......just yet. Chacun for me doesn't like the Cheltenham hill. Energumene hasn't even tried it yet and has a tendency to jump right plus would, imo, prefer genuine soft ground to show his best. Allaho on the other hand clearly loves jumping around Cheltenham and we can't say for certain that he'd not be as effective around Prestbury over the minimum trip. Its not over yet.

P S. Forget the going up in trip. They've tried that and he clearly does not stay in the highest company and certainly would be found out big time over 3m 2f at Cheltenham. He should be any price for the GC. It won't happen.

IMO.....

Nothing inconceivable with Willie, but not for me. Allaho looks like a horse with solid form over 3m without ever seeing out 3m as strongly as connections would like, hence the drop back to 2m5f. He was able to chase CPS home at Punchestown over 2m because he's a very good horse, but he was miles back that day and I imagine Mullins has at least 2 (CPS and Energumene) horses that are quicker, and I'm sure there are quite a few horses in other yards quicker too. They certainly don't think of him as a 2 miler and his run LTO smacked of 'lets see where we stand'. Ultimately, he's failed and gone down the Albert Bartlett and RSA route because they think he's a stayer not a real speedster. I have no doubt Allaho would run with credit in a QMCC, but he wouldn't be able to set fractions that would shake off horses like Shishkin who 2f out would lay up and have the speed to go past. Allaho is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place, and 2m5f at Cheltenham appears to be the perfect trip for him. Few other things that scream Ryanair. Willie is a creature of habit and the Ryanair is there for the taking. The owners (CPS) wont force Willies hand and want winners at Cheltenham which they can have far easier in the Ryanair. Allaho has just won horse performance of the season which makes a Ryanair repeat more likely. Not saying it can't happen, I just think it's unlikely.