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Register of interest: IMPERVIOUS is the biggest winner out of all my Festival singles bets so I have a vested interest in finding out how her 5lb penalty will affect her chances if she runs here.
Most of the market leaders in the MNH have yet to make their hurdling debut so it's too soon to tell how many leading contenders she will be giving weight to.
But we can take a quick look through the six runnings since the race's inception to see how many penalised horses finished in the first four.
2016: 4 of the 16 runners carried penalties. Best placed: 1st LIMINI 8-11fav (5lbs) and 3rd Bloody Mary 7-1 (5).
2017: 7 of the 16 runners carried penalties. Best placed: 1st LET'S DANCE 11-8 fav (5) and 3rd Dusky Legend 20-1(3).
2018: 4 of the 14 runners carried penalties. Best placed: 1st LAURINA 4-7fav (5), 2nd Cap Soleil 10-1(5) and 4th Maria's Benefit 9-2 (5).
2019: 9 of the 22 runners carried penalties: Best placed: 3rd (3) Tintangle 4-1 (3)
2020 4 of the 22 runners carried penalties.None placed.
2021: 4 of the 15 runners carried penalties. Best placed 4th Skyace 28-1 (5)
OUTCOME
So 32 of the 105 runners (30.5 per cent) carried penalties and they won 50 per cent of the races.
All 3 of these penalty-carrying winners were trained by Willie and began their career in France.
It means 30.5pc horses with penalties filled almost 39 per cent of the first three spots.
So in terms of win and placed horses those with penalties punch above their weight when it comes to placing.
DO HORSES WHO CARRY AN EXTRA 5LBS FARE BETTER OR WORSE THAN THOSE WITH 3LBS EXTRA
24 runners (nearly 23 per cent) of the overall field) in the last six years have carried a 5lb penalty and they won 50 per cent of the races.
8 runners (7.6 per cent) carried a 3lb penalty and the best they managed was 2 third places.
THE STAMINA TEST - WILLIE'S 3 HOTPOTS ALL WON OVER AT LEAST 2M 2F IN THEIR PREP RACES
LAURINA and LIMINI both won their final prep race over 2m 2f in the same Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Fairyhouse at the end of January.
LET'S DANCE won over 2m 4f in a Grade 3 mares novice hurdle at Leopardstown at the end of December - and at the same track and over the same trip she won a Grade 2 novice hurdle in her final prep at the end of January.
THE RATINGS TEST
LAURINA was the best of the 3 Willie winners with penalties. She posted an rpr of 150 in winning the Grade 3 on her 4th hurdles start and then 154 at Cheltenham where she romped home by 18 lengths.
LET's DANCE posted 146 on her 8th hurdles start in the Grade 3 and then matched that figure in the Grade 2 next time out. She won by nearly 3 lengths at Cheltenham again posting a 146rpr.
LIMINI posted a 141 in winning her Grade 3 on her second hurdles start after running on the flat 6 times in France. She won by 4 lengths at Cheltenham with a mark of 148.
THE 2 MILES 2 FURLONGS BIG POT HANDICAP HURDLE CONNECTION
50-1 shot EGLANTINE DU SEUIL posted an rpr of 138 at Cheltenham indicating it was a sub-standard renewal. She'd been beaten in a listed novice hurdle in her final prep the previous September. Her only previous hurdles win was in a two-mile maiden on debut for Willie. She hadn't been further than 2 miles in 3 previous starts before the Fez.
Second season novice CONCERTISTA posted 147 when she won by 12 lengths after being chinned on her hurdling debut a year earlier. She was 3rd in the big field 50k Paddy Mullins mares handicap hurdle over 2m 2f at Leopardstown on her final prep.
Former point-to-pointer and second season novice TELMESOMETHINGGIRL posted 143 when she won by 5 lengths at Cheltenham. She too finished 3rd in the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m 2f on her final prep run.
DOES AN IMPERVIOUS BET HOLD WATER
If IMPERVIOUS rocks up in the Royal Bind and wins on Sunday she'll have achieved something none of the six winners of this race managed in their prep races by landing a Grade 1.
Even if that doesn't happen Impervious has already gone a long way to proving her stamina by winning a listed novice hurdle over 2 miles 4 furlongs.
And she followed up by posting a 137rpr in her victory in a Grade 3.
If you go purely on rprs (which I don't) then you can make a case to suggest Impervious has already nearly hit Eglantine Du Seuil's winning Cheltenham mark and is within 4lbs of Limini's best prep rpr (141) prior to Cheltenham.
Impervious is only 6lbs off the standard set by Telmesomethinggirl at the Festival this year, 9lbs of the Cheltenham mark posted by Let's Dance and 10lbs adrift of Concertista' s Festival rpr(147).
Laurina is way out on her own with a 150prep and 154 at the Fez - no other horse in this race has hit the 150 mark in a prep or in winning this. But Impervious may get a chance to close the gap on Sunday.
THE DOWNSIDE OF BEING IMPERVIOUS
She's not trained by Willie who has won 5 out of 6.
She didn't begin her career in France like 5 out of the 6 winners.
WILL IMPERVIOUS WIN THE MNH IN MARCH
There's every chance the winner may not have set foot on a race track in the UK yet - and that she'll be trained by Willie.
Impervious has already set a very decent benchmark by which newcomers will be judged.
I think her style of running is perfect for Cheltenham, she has the right combination of speed and stamina and it looks like there's more to come.
But realistically she'll need to either win or go very close in the Royal Bond ***(if she runs) to justify being one of the main contenders and a worthwhile bet at current odds.
*** ROYAL BOND STATS
BALLYADAM got a 145rpr for winning it last year.
ENVOI ALLEN got 156 for winning it in 2019.
QUICK GRABIM got 146 for winning it in 2018.
Last edited by nortonscoin200; 22 November 2021, 09:56 PM.
I’m not sure if it’s been mentioned on another thread or not (it’s tough these days to keep up), but La Prima Donna has an entry on Thursday at Thurles for Willie and Kenny Alexander. She’s entered twice but the mares maiden they won with Gauloise last season so may stick to her own sex. She’s got experience from France having run second twice and is very nicely bred for jumping. She may need a bit further over time but that can be a good thing in this race as highlighted in the post above.
I watched a few of her races back, what really impresses me about grangee is the response when shes asked for more, its quite quick and she comes off the pace nicely..hopefully its steongly run tommorow!
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