2022 Champion Hurdle

[archie]

I'm okay with where I am with her for the moment, but if I weren't I'd have a target return for her, and probably split my mistakes now and after the race to half that return each. We all play it different ways though, and it's whatever suits our own mentality.

Freudian slip?

[Muswell]

This may have caused a few heart attacks I expect https://twitter.com/irishracing/stat...330138630?s=21

[Hardy Eustace]

A general 6/4 now.. 7/4 is long gone

Thanks DB - makes waiting even more enticing...

[ToniC]

Am weighing up backing Honeysuckle. Cant believe I would ever think about backing a 7/4 shot 4 months out but I am.

The only thing stopping me is Honey's first run out last season. It was obviously her least impressive and IMO if she runs like that at the weekend she will get beat. Henry's seem to be needing the run more this season too. That said its a grade 1 and he will want to win it.

The question is do you take the 7/4 now or hope she gets beat and get 9/4 possibly even 5/2 there after. If she wins what will she be 5/4 / 11/10? It may be better to wait...

I caved and backed her this morning. Coincidentally the 7/4 with 365 is now gone although I’m sure my money had no bearing on that . I would have agreed with you about Henry’s, and held off on backing her til post-hattons grace but for APTs performance in the Betfair Chase. He’s clearly been hard to get ready in the past and Henry seemed to have him forward well beyond previous years. Ultimately though, her performance at the weekend won’t get me a penny, if she wins (I think she will) then great but if she loses so be it, id still fancy her for March unless she put in a real horror performance

[FinalFurlong91]

Had her in a few doubles after the last festival with Bob, allaho, indo, kilcruit etc

Not tempted to have a single at all at that price

Can find a better 6/4 shot most weekends because they dont have the antepost risks attached

id love to see epatante or monmiral bolt up at Newcastle to inject a bit of interest into the race

[jono]

Honeysuckle has generally been fine first time out in he career to date.
Her first 2 seasonal debuts were won with ease by 12 and 11L. Obviously last year and this will be a much much higher calibre of race and opposition.
But I wouldn't be overly concerned about her lacking anything for it.

For one it's a far better race this year (you could argue one of if not the toughest race she has faced to date if they all line up)
So Henry will know he probably needs her more forward than last season.
The fact her season doesn't include a race over Christmas will also help in that he can give her a break and bring her back for February.

Some of Henry's have needed their runs. But at the same time 2/3 of his best horses (APT and Bob Olinger) have won with relative ease and Indo was half expected.

Some race in store though. I'm hoping Klassical Dream runs but it wouldn't surprise me if they swerve the race with him with the ground being good (at this stage)

[Quevega]

Honeysuckle has generally been fine first time out in he career to date.
Her first 2 seasonal debuts were won with ease by 12 and 11L. Obviously last year and this will be a much much higher calibre of race and opposition.
But I wouldn't be overly concerned about her lacking anything for it.

For one it's a far better race this year (you could argue one of if not the toughest race she has faced to date if they all line up)
So Henry will know he probably needs her more forward than last season.
The fact her season doesn't include a race over Christmas will also help in that he can give her a break and bring her back for February.

Some of Henry's have needed their runs. But at the same time 2/3 of his best horses (APT and Bob Olinger) have won with relative ease and Indo was half expected.

Some race in store though. I'm hoping Klassical Dream runs but it wouldn't surprise me if they swerve the race with him with the ground being good (at this stage)

Klassical Dream has got "turn up in March for first run" written all over him.
Hope I'm wrong, but would not surprise.

[jono]

Klassical Dream has got "turn up in March for first run" written all over him.
Hope I'm wrong, but would not surprise.

Yep. I'm sure they'll have Penhill winning it fresh in the back of their minds there.
That, or one run at Christmas in the Leopardstown race and then put away.
I'd be shocked if he runs more than once before the festival that's for sure.

Which like you say isn't great, one as you want to see him for the sporting interest.
And secondly because it'll be hard to weigh up his price and whether he's a bet in the race.

[FinalFurlong91]

Klassical Dream has got "turn up in March for first run" written all over him.
Hope I'm wrong, but would not surprise.

With his injury record id be more thinking run him while he's fit

[Quevega]

With his injury record id be more thinking run him while he's fit

Yep, Willie has referred to this.
But he is also prone to letting them off for very little, especially if they've had other issues.
So it's that final bit of work that'll be the decider.
They aren't afraid of it though, and for a staying hurdler that's not coming over to the UK in winter then starting at Cheltenham isn't bad if you fancy going to France and Punchestown as well.
And he seemed to run fine at Punchestown after over 400 days off.
Fingers crossed we see him at the weekend though as I'm sure the chance of denting Honeysuckle's reputation is also a big pull.

[Spectre]

Freudian slip?

Very good Archie Also very true

[Middle_Of_March]

Taken 25s each way with cashout for Monmiral before todays Fighting Fifth.

To back a four year old in open company goes against one of my rules but 25/1 for the top juvenile is far more attractive than say Goshen at 5/1 a year ago. Add to that the fact that Adagio gave the juvenile form a good boost in the Greatwood a fortnight ago and the way Monmiral beat him at Aintree, and I’ve found myself taking the 25s with cashout.

As for the division itself, if Honeysuckle got injured right now (obviously we all hope she doesn’t), it’s surely the weakest the 2m division has ever looked and horses like Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow would have to at least be though about as diverting back to a hurdles campaign - especially with them not yet jumping a fence (unlike Bob for example who’s broken that novice status already). Monmiral is one of the very few that is a backable price that Honeysuckle hasn’t beaten already/yet which at least makes the win part of the bet still viable. Even with her likely being comfortably too good for the rest, the each way part of the bet is a fair price I’d say. 25s e/w with cashout.. I couldn’t resist.

[Quevega]

Tom Segal said last night that Soaring Glory is likely to be the shortest priced UK based horse for this race.
On a day when the fighting fifth is happening and he's running in an intermediate hurdle, having recently beaten leoncavallo.

[Exar Essay]

Tom Segal said last night that Soaring Glory is likely to be the shortest priced UK based horse for this race.
On a day when the fighting fifth is happening and he's running in an intermediate hurdle, having recently beaten leoncavallo.

Not sure Soaring Glory realised there were hurdles today. Hit them all.

[FinalFurlong91]

Tom Segal said last night that Soaring Glory is likely to be the shortest priced UK based horse for this race.
On a day when the fighting fifth is happening and he's running in an intermediate hurdle, having recently beaten leoncavallo.

He latches on to some weird horses sometimes