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Mullins issue is that he has so much talent he has to find a schedule that suits all horses and gives them all a chance of winning the best races possible, he can't target the Arkle with every one of his 2m hurdlers that are going chasing...
Surely he will have that in mind for them all
Then as the season progresses the cream will rise to the top and he will know which ones are his arkle horses and which ones aren't of that standard
It's a myth that Willie doesn't have long term plans. Decides at the last minute my arse. He hasn't got to where he is by deciding in the spare of the moment. He definitely has long term targets but plans can change of course.
It's a myth that Willie doesn't have long term plans. Decides at the last minute my arse. He hasn't got to where he is by deciding in the spare of the moment. He definitely has long term targets but plans can change of course.
Some is but some isn't.
I've stood next to him in Closutton minutes out from decs on the phone while shouting across the gallop to assistants on what will they declare. That's the day to day stuff
Long term again depends on the horse - some there are races mapped out for the festival a long way out, others they'll have a plan one side of Xmas and performance dictates the latter part of the season
Last edited by Run4Home; 17 October 2021, 07:15 PM.
Nice to see Mister Coffey gets a 2 mile mention in Hendos Unibet tour. Thinking he could be his all important Arkle horse now that it is expected Dusart stays Hurdling.
It's a myth that Willie doesn't have long term plans. Decides at the last minute my arse. He hasn't got to where he is by deciding in the spare of the moment. He definitely has long term targets but plans can change of course.
Horses like Al Boum Photo, CPS and Allaho will probably have very clear targets, and I suspect in behind those, you have novices like GDC where Mullins has a target in mind (like the RSA), but the horse has to do the talking on course and step up to deliver on what Willie hopes the horse is.
Important to remember Willie trains 200+ horses. He has hundreds of owners and thousands of races to choose from. There will be horses who have to be schooled over hurdles and fences to see which suits them best. There will be multiple horses who can't all go down the same route and target the Arkle, so pecking/campaign order has to be established (using schooling/work can be tricky). There will be horses owned by different people, some will care where they go, others won't. Some will care if Willie separates running them vs others of his, others won't, so he has to manage conflicts of interest. There will be horses who have been injured who probably have more potential than current fit horses, but they have to weigh up the chances of injury free campaign - do they start early, xmas, late. There will be horses where they feel they have a grasp on how good they are because they tear up the gallops and work well, whereas other horses might be lazy and they need racecourse experience to guide and inform their plans. They will be looking at long term forecasts - some of their horses might prefer spring ground and if there are bigger pots over hurdles in the spring that are more suitable than early chase options, they may stick hurdling. There will be horses who may need a few runs over hurdles to get fit before taking larger obstacles - how they start the season isn't how they finish the season. etc etc etc etc etc.
It's a moving ship. Willie and his team have to juggle all the above when making initial decisions, knowing that horses will disappoint, or need to step up, or not handle the ground, or don't take to a particular type of obstacle etc, so they have to think about this for each horse. There are so many moving parts I suspect Willie doesn't have a clear target for most of them. There will of course be a small number of stable stars who have clear targets and we know who those are, and there are probably 20+ very good horses in Willies yard where Willie and Patrick know and hope what they could be, but wont tell us. Why would they? Seasons evolve, plans change, they might want to move horses around etc, and there's no incentive for them to commit now. I can understand why punters don't like this and it leads to Willie and Patrick being labelled XYC, but thats just the nature of managing such a large horse operation. It's common sense they'd make decisions late and they'd look fucking daft making them early or prematurely.
Horses like Al Boum Photo, CPS and Allaho will probably have very clear targets, and I suspect in behind those, you have novices like GDC where Mullins has a target in mind (like the RSA), but the horse has to do the talking on course and step up to deliver on what Willie hopes the horse is.
Important to remember Willie trains 200+ horses. He has hundreds of owners and thousands of races to choose from. There will be horses who have to be schooled over hurdles and fences to see which suits them best. There will be multiple horses who can't all go down the same route and target the Arkle, so pecking/campaign order has to be established (using schooling/work can be tricky). There will be horses owned by different people, some will care where they go, others won't. Some will care if Willie separates running them vs others of his, others won't, so he has to manage conflicts of interest. There will be horses who have been injured who probably have more potential than current fit horses, but they have to weigh up the chances of injury free campaign - do they start early, xmas, late. There will be horses where they feel they have a grasp on how good they are because they tear up the gallops and work well, whereas other horses might be lazy and they need racecourse experience to guide and inform their plans. They will be looking at long term forecasts - some of their horses might prefer spring ground and if there are bigger pots over hurdles in the spring that are more suitable than early chase options, they may stick hurdling. There will be horses who may need a few runs over hurdles to get fit before taking larger obstacles - how they start the season isn't how they finish the season. etc etc etc etc etc.
It's a moving ship. Willie and his team have to juggle all the above when making initial decisions, knowing that horses will disappoint, or need to step up, or not handle the ground, or don't take to a particular type of obstacle etc, so they have to think about this for each horse. There are so many moving parts I suspect Willie doesn't have a clear target for most of them. There will of course be a small number of stable stars who have clear targets and we know who those are, and there are probably 20+ very good horses in Willies yard where Willie and Patrick know and hope what they could be, but wont tell us. Why would they? Seasons evolve, plans change, they might want to move horses around etc, and there's no incentive for them to commit now. I can understand why punters don't like this and it leads to Willie and Patrick being labelled XYC, but thats just the nature of managing such a large horse operation. It's common sense they'd make decisions late and they'd look fucking daft making them early or prematurely.
Johnny Burke on Boothill who a few on here have mentioned....
I won a bumper on Boothill at Kempton in February 2020, after which Sean Bowen rode him to win a novice at Taunton.
Unfortunately he's been plagued with injury but if Harry can get him right then he's probably a Graded horse and possibly a real top horse at that.
He's schooled well over fences last week on the grass, he was very, very good. Fingers crossed they have a clear run with him as he'll be a very exciting one. I don't know if they'll look to start off over hurdles first to get him going but ultimately he'll jump fences.
Johnny Burke on Boothill who a few on here have mentioned....
I won a bumper on Boothill at Kempton in February 2020, after which Sean Bowen rode him to win a novice at Taunton.
Unfortunately he's been plagued with injury but if Harry can get him right then he's probably a Graded horse and possibly a real top horse at that.
He's schooled well over fences last week on the grass, he was very, very good. Fingers crossed they have a clear run with him as he'll be a very exciting one. I don't know if they'll look to start off over hurdles first to get him going but ultimately he'll jump fences.
…..Sky RaB; I am Maximus (SNH), Boothill (A) and Gerri Colombe (BNH) all to place 200-1 (was 250-1).
I'd be grateful if someone could request a price with B365 for faivoir. - They refused me.
He could easily rack up a series of wins as I don't see much competition over here, and has an excellent win ratio, and the Kelso hurdle he lost was against seriously well handicapped horses, conceded weight, with the front 3 clear.
Watched his uttoxeter debut and he won easily.
Might want further in time, but Skelton may campaign over 2 miles early on, and Skelton did ok with allmankind, and i think this horse is potentially better. Definitely with a more flexible run style.
I want 66's please
Nothing to do with me, but just noticed he's priced up with 365 now. Only 33's though.
Nothing to do with me, but just noticed he's priced up with 365 now. Only 33's though.
Yep, friend of mine, who may be flagged as well.
No reason for 33-1 when horses with similar form profiles like - third time lucki, soaring glory, metier, milkwood, are all at 50 or 66-1.
Not bothered at that price but I do like the horse.
I may hover over it if they leave it open tomorrow, whilst he runs.
I really liked Fauvoirs debut over fences thought he jumped great and was really impressive, running over 2 mile 4 tomorrow though so might not be an Arkle horse. Imo he'd be a perfect horse for the novice handicap chase they got rid of as I can't see him being good enough for the Marsh with the division looking so hot.
Talking about the Tingle Creek has got me annoyed with Paul Nicholls.
It's like he's forgot that he is the master of young chasers, and since 1999, only four 5 year olds have won the tingle creek, and he trained them all.
And he's piss balling about with Monmiral, who looks born to be jumping fences.
It's like he's forgotten where his mouth and arse are positioned.
Talking about the Tingle Creek has got me annoyed with Paul Nicholls.
It's like he's forgot that he is the master of young chasers, and since 1999, only four 5 year olds have won the tingle creek, and he trained them all.
And he's piss balling about with Monmiral, who looks born to be jumping fences.
It's like he's forgotten where his mouth and arse are positioned.
I agree. I genuinely think the gap between the UK and Ireland would be closed if more courage was taken by British based trainers. Whilst caution and patience are assets in seeing the bigger picture, they are also perfect things to hide behind. I just don't see him as a CH horse.
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