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As somebody who’s already got the appreciate it / honeysuckle / Concertista trixie (+ Shishkin for a Yankee) placed, I’d much rather we favoured the handicaps for a e/w Yankee
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If you are going to include handicaps in EW yankees, best wait for day of race market now to get extra places. The markets are currently showing a mahuuusuve over round, and we are just coming into the ‘no play’ zone as far as timings/value is concerned.
Similar applies to many races now as they have all reached a pretty defensively priced equilibrium pending confirmation stage.Comment
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I think we are fortunate to have 2 bankers already on Day 1 in Appreciate It & Consertiesta but their odds are very short. Galvin is great value now thanks to Royal Paguelles prescience in the market but of we’re looking for juicy prices I would propose Harry Fry’s pair of Metier in the SNH, If The Cap Fits in the Ultima and anchored with Galvin and Consertiesta.Comment
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Concertista will be odds on when we place this so I’d be against having her in. We should look at the boodles and ultima instead for the better odds and extra places.Comment
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The issue re a lot of the shorties being discussed is they may well be a lot shorter on the day. Concertista is 6/5 now and could well go off odds on. Honeysuckle is 2/1 now and could well go off 6/4. With 80+ horses running per day and 7 races, we can surely collectively land on something a little more exciting than 4 very short favs can't we?Comment
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I had proposed If The Cap fits for Ultima but I’m a bit concerned about his participation in the Reynoldstown race at Ascot which appeared to takes its toll on all the horses that ran in the same race last year. The Big Breakaway is also in the race which is baffling given how Copperhead performed in the RSA last festival. Given the forecast rain conditions at Ascot will be soft again so I’d be wary of any horses running on the weekend and Cheltenham personally.
Therefore I think Happygolucky looks a better value e/w selection for a day 1 Yankee. I think 2nd season chasers tend to have a better record in the Ultima but there aren’t many of those fit and targeting this race by the look of the current field so happy to chance HappygoluckyComment
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Agree KP.
Following Kim’s comments today the Ultimate seems his most likely target.
Reckon we should go with an each way Yankee with Galvin and Happygolucky the lynchpins at 4-1 and 25-1 best prices with Bet 365.
We need 2 more who are nailed on to run where we expect.
My vote would be for Ballyadam (8-1 with B365 for Supreme) and Busselton at 14-1 with B365 for the Boodles.
Busselton is the one I have most doubts about so make a case for 2 to keep Galvin and HGL company.
And would it be against the spirit of the FJ Yankee to press the button soon because these prices are likely to shrink significantly.
I don’t want to rock the boat but if our aim is to make a profit I’d certainly prefer to risk an early call with a NRNB firm for those unwilling to risk it being scuppered before the day.
If we wait until the day before kick off those prices could well be (in race order) 5-1, 10-1, 8-1, 2-1 and to my mind that is not an each way bet.
I don’t want to offend anyone so I’ll happily back off and make a late call if that’s what people prefer - but we may end up with a very different team.
Thoughts gratefully received...Last edited by nortonscoin200; 17 February 2021, 08:57 PM.Comment
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Yeah, I don't think it's ideal. I really like ITCF's for the Ultima, but rather sceptical about them running him at the weekend!Originally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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I know the Ultima is a proper 3m test but do people really see ITCF as having the speed for 3m ?Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostComment
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From my experiences of antepost betting I would probably leave it until a bit longer before committing to final bets as horses being aimed at Cheltenham will be involved in their key work now so injuries, set backs, poor schooling can change markets when the rumour mill goes into full drive. I would hold out until the start of March at least because there are 2 handicap races on day 1 which are also still far from settled. We can agree on a provisional Yankee but I think there will be a few twists in the plot from now until March 16thOriginally posted by nortonscoin200 View PostComment
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You’re welcome to post your own Yankee ideas but I think we place all of them on the Sunday / Monday at the same time to make the bookies run for coverOriginally posted by nortonscoin200 View PostComment
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Fine.....let's wait till final decs and take the plunge then.Originally posted by dannycraigpirates View PostComment
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I think essentially, people can (and will be, like I did last night!) be backing yankee's if they like... I had Happygolucky last night as you rightly point out, the price will be gone.Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
You can put up an ante post yankee, but it won't be the 'official' one ..... but encouraged all the same
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Yeah, that's fine Kev....I'll wait for the official one.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
I think essentially, people can (and will be, like I did last night!) be backing yankee's if they like... I had Happygolucky last night as you rightly point out, the price will be gone.
You can put up an ante post yankee, but it won't be the 'official' one ..... but encouraged all the same
Think I'm just getting up a bit sweaty and steamed up in the paddock and want to get on with it. Just need to calm down and be patient.
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