Fat Jockey Day One Yankee - Captain: nortonscoin200

[Milbear0]

As mentioned by Kauto, the arkle (and the CH also) won’t provide great shape for EW plays. Perhaps consider the arkle W/O market for 2 places to shoot at.

Personally when considering multiples I either target the win element or the place element. Lots of 6/1 shots each way is bookies benefit. Either try and get 2/3 double figure horses placed, or bet win only at a level where 2-3 horses return a profit.
At this stage Galvin could still have it all to do against the likes of LE, DD and even RP. That 9/2 carrot is not appealing to me as an EW play.
Captain Guinness 12/1 on the WO Shishkin market? You need a horse here ridden to place - could be Rachel let’s the big two go on while stalking behind holding the horse together.
On decent ground I’d struggle to see Sharjah out of the places in the CH, and fancy him or not there’s little room for an EW play behind the girls.
I think there’s a general sense that opportunity exists in the supreme for have a go horses behind AI. Some juveniles are bound to divert, and with Ballyadams jumping and general form 7/1 looks skinny enough. Not place banker. I’d wait to see what emerges nearer the time. The betfair hurdle winner may well go second fav after Newbury - it’s that kind of market.
Mares hurdle looks a good place for ew value but that hinges greatly on BDDs wellbeing and participation. Perhaps another race to wait on as Roksana would surely slip into her market position if BDD ruled out.
NHc - I would expect LE to end up here when RP confirms gold cup as target, and he will surely settle next to Galvin as joint fav if so. Amateur jockey bookings another variable here.

All in all it’s a tough day for an ew yankee at this stage. Powder dry may be the ticket for now, as there’s nothing worse than a withdrawal ruining a yankee before the day without NRNB concession.

As a proposal with NRNB (PP prices) if you wanted to go early -

Supreme - Cadzand 20/1
Arkle - Captain Guinness 12/1 w/o Shishkin
CH - Sharjah 10/1
Mares - minella melody 20/1 (course record a concern - would rather the 28/1 available but not NRNB)
NHc - LE 6/1

I wouldn’t touch the handicaps at this stage, even if you snatch a winner it’s not guaranteed you’ll have found another to back it up with!

[taylorch1990]

With short price Favourites dominating the first 3 races on Tuesday and some uncertainty currently about runners in the Ultima, Boodles and Mares hurdle, how about an E/W Yankee where targets are more settled.

Given that the majority on the Forum are probably already on Appreciate It, Shishkin and the two Mares in the CH, this is more of a consolation theme Yankee but with reasonable place potential. It does though finish with a Forum Favourite to bring home the bacon.

Supreme - Ballyadam 7/1

Arkle - Allmankind 11/1

CH - Silver Streak 11/1

NHC - Galvin 9/2

Odds 6,335-1

?1 E/W pays ? 6,336 if all 4 win and ?47 for all 4 to place

Any 2 of the above only to place returns more than double the total stake.

Any 2 of the above to win returns minimum 22 times the total stake.

Really like this idea however I'd swap Allmankind for Captain Guinness and Silver Streak for Sharjah. I feel the two I've mentioned are more likely to pick up the pieces in the 2 races that seem to have plenty of pace in them.

[nortonscoin200]

So what has been the fate of the favourites on Day One over the last 5 years?

Thought it was worth doing this little exercise to get the lie of the land.

2021 ( current favourites best price NRNB)

Supreme 6-4.
Arkle 10-11
Ultima. 8-1.
Champion Hurdle. 9-4.
Mares Hurdle. 6-4***.
Boodles. 7-1.
NH Chase. 4-1.

***Excludes Honeysuckle



WINNERS SP (winning favourites in caps)


2020

Supreme 6-1 3rd fav
Arkle 16-1
Ultima 15-2 3rd fav
CHAMP H 2-1 FAV
Mares H 9-4 2nd fav.
Boodles 15-2 3rd fav
NH Chase 12-1 4th fav

2019

Supreme 6-1 3rd fav.
Arkle. 5-1 3rd fav
Ultima 10-1 5th fav
Champ H 16-1 4th fav.
Mares H 10-1 4th fav.
BOODLES 7-2 FAV
NH Chase 14-1 5th fav

2018

Supreme 9-1 3rd fav.
ARKLE 5-6 FAV.
ULTIMA 5-1 FAV.
CHAMP H. 4-6 FAV.
Mares H 9-2 2nd fav.
Boodles. 33-1
NH Ch 9-2 2nd fav

2017

Supreme 25-1
ARKLE 1-4 FAV,
Ultima 9-1 3rd fav
Champ H 5-1 2nd fav.
Mares H 7-2 3rd fav
Boodles. 33-1
NH Chase 16-1

2016

Supreme 4-1 2nd fav.
ARKLE 1-4 FAV.
Ultima 11-1 5th fav
CHAMP H 5-2 FAV
MARES H 4-6 FAV
Boodles 13-2 2nd fav
NH Chase 8-1 5th fav


CONCLUSIONS

9 favourites win out of 35 races - so just under 26 per cent did the biz.

6 second favourites won - a 17 per cent success rate

8 third favourites won - just under 23 per cent

3 fourth favourites won - more than 8 per cent.


The best races for favourites were the Arkle and Champion Hurdle with 3 apiece.
The worst were the Supreme and NH Chase with zero.

Supreme: 0
Arkle: 3
Ultima: 1
Champ H: 3
Mares H: 1
Boodles: 1
NH Chase: 0

So what do we make of that?

Precisely - Appreciate It and Galvin are a shoe-in!!!

[nortonscoin200]

IRELAND V ENGLAND DAY ONE - IT COULD BE CLOSER THAN YOU THINK

I promise this will be the last bit of stats bollox you get from me.

Irish horses are currently favourite to win six races on Day One.

How many will triumph?

Here's the outcome for the last 5 years:

2020: Ireland 4 England 3
2019: Ireland 4 England 3
2018: Ireland 4 England 3
2017: Ireland 3 England 4
2016 Ireland 3 England 4

Irish horses have won 4 out of 5 in the Arkle and Mares Hurdle.
English horses have won the last 5 runnings of the Ultima.

DAY ONE TOP TRAINERS

Willie 8 (3 Arkles, 2 Mares Hurdle)
Hendo 7 ( 3 Champion Hurdle, 2 Supreme)
Gordy 6 (2 Boodles, 2 NHC)

Between them, these 3 have won 60 Per CENT of the races on Day One over the last 5 years.

Now let's stop shilly-shallying about and pick our four equine heroes.

[charlie]

I like the idea of getting an Arkle outside in there Nortons Who, but I would be strongly against Allmankind as the horse. Convinced he'll demolish all (bar Shishkin) running around places like Sandown, but Cheltenham doesn't suit him.

[Kevloaf]

I think the Ultima is one of the most getable handicaps... after entries and weights for that I reckon we can really narrow that down?

Boodles I wouldn't be as keen on, although the shortlist is Joseph, Nicholls, Elliott and anything else no chance (not even Willie )



I'm not sure the Arkle is an each way race, and not everyone can use the "without" markets which might be an issue (depending on if any more open up I suppose)

[nortonscoin200]

I like brother Norton's idea of making GALVIN our banker in the NH Chase.

He's been targeted for the race since before helicopters were invented.

We know he acts on the course and the trip should suit him well.

And his trainer's won this twice in the last 4 years.

What's more, some/all of his fiercest may not show up. If they do then he'll have more on his plate but the price could be pretty much what it is now.

As an alternative to Galvin is it worth considering LONGHOUSE POET (currently 25-1 NRNB) who has had a pretty decent novice chase campaign so far (beat Run Wild Fred latest start) and looks like this trip could improve him again.

If we went for Longhouse Poet each way we would need another banker. What would it be?

Nortons also champions BALLYADAM and it's certainly possible he could turn the tables on Appreciate It at the Festival at an each way price.


Also like Milbear0's idea of CAPTAIN GUINNESS at 12-1 in the PP w/o Shishkin market which brings some decent each way value into play. Though I see Kev's made the point that not everyone may have access to that market so it would be a no-go if that proves to be the case.

Another I've been looking at is MINELLA TIMES at 25-1 NRNB for the Ultima. Impressed with the way he jumped and travelled in the big handicap chase at Leopardstown last weekend and he's on a nice mark for this. But I just wonder if he'll be up to this standard.

So, let's get some more names in the hat for our long-list debate:

These have been touted so far:

SUPREME:

Ballyadam ew

Cadzand


ARKLE:

Shishkin

Allmankind ew

Captain Guinness w/o Shishkin


ULTIMA

Minella Times ew


CHAMPION HURDLE

Silver Streak ew

Sharjah

MARES HURDLE

Minella Melody


BOODLES



NH CHASE

Galvin

Latest Exhibition

[Istabraq]

Also like Milbear0's idea of CAPTAIN GUINNESS at 12-1 in the PP w/o Shishkin market which brings some decent each way value into play. Though I see Kev's made the point that not everyone may have access to that market so it would be a no-go if that proves to be the case.

Just a reminder that not every bookmaker allows these 'without fav' markets to be played each way...

[Spectre]

I'd also be in the camp of making Galvin a day 1 banker. I think it's the kind of day to play three shorter price horses with a haymaker.

I agree with Kev that the Ultima is one of the more 'gettable' handicaps of the week. The right one for most will be The Conditional, but he may go for the Gold Cup so waiting for the Denman Chase and seeing what connections say seems advisable. He isn't the one I'd nominate though.

Whatmore has an excellent profile for this. 4th behind Imperial Aura and Galvin last season over an inadequate two and half miles, stepping up in trip after running a big race at last seasons Festival makes gives him a nice profile for this.

Jonjo is in flying form and Cloth Cap surely heads here and still looks attractively handicapped. He's got form in all the right races, and it would hardly be unusual to see a Trevor Hemmings horse run well in the race. He wasn't given the best of rides in the Kim Muir last season, when he was never properly put in the race. Anyway he looks a much better horse this season, and he'll be a contender.

Farclas will come here with a lofty reputiation but he may have too much weight if Gordon decides to bring him over, and Escaria Ten seems destined to end up in the NH Chase as backup to Galvin. Either way it would seem sensible to wait until the final decs for the Day 1 yankee to eliminate any uneccesary risk of non-runners. I think these two are more likely to place than win, and will go off too short because of Gordon anyway.

The one I'd confidently nominate as the right horse is Happygolucky. Novices have a good record in the race, he has a nice profile, and excellent course form including being beaten 3 lengths in the Ballymore trial at the Open Meeting behind Thyme Hill, 3rd beaten 3 lengths in the Martin Pipe when hampered at the last, and a recent win in a novice chase over course and distance at the International Meeting. I think he's very well handicapped, and he's the horse I really like for this. Currently available at prices up to 33/1, I think he'll go off 10-12/1 on the day which would offer a nice boost to the odds with the shorties. There's a possibility he could still go for the RSA or the NH Chase, but I think that's unlikley when this is winnable off his current mark. For me personally, assuming he lines up I will be heavily into him. He's already a 50 point winner for me, and I can see my self going back in several times on confirmation that this is his race.

[ComplyOrDie]

If The Cap Fits for the Ultima, for me. Although The Conditional is of obvious interest as well.

Obviously no guarantee If The Cap Fits turns up for that race but we will know nearer the time anyway.

He's a novice chaser, which is no bad thing, as Spectre has mentioned above. He has the back class over hurdles that will highly likely be better than any other runner in the field.

I was massively surprised to see he only has a chase rating of 152. He finished just 5 lengths behind a dour stayer in Yala Enki (rated 161) LTO over an extreme trip, however, as The Conditional showed last season, there is nothing wrong with undertaking an extreme trip prior to running in this race.

I don't think we'll see him again until the festival now so his price should still be generous enough.

[Istabraq]

If The Cap Fits for the Ultima, for me.

Can’t help thinking it’ll all happen a bit too quick for him over 3m, he could end up another ‘Just So’ who in 1989 they eventually gave up with after realising there wasn’t a race in the calendar long enough for him.
Where ITCF I have no idea but I’ll be surprised if it’s the Ultima...

[ComplyOrDie]

Can’t help thinking it’ll all happen a bit too quick for him over 3m, he could end up another ‘Just So’ who in 1989 they eventually gave up with after realising there wasn’t a race in the calendar long enough for him.
Where ITCF I have no idea but I’ll be surprised if it’s the Ultima...

3m 1f on a stiff track I think will be fine. It all happened a bit quick for him at flat track Kempton.

I actually think the bigger field will help him. He's unfortunately be in quite a few smaller fields, which I just don't think suits as much.

That all said, he's still got to go to the race, he could end up in any of the novice chases still.

[Istabraq]

Big field may well help, but I think the furlong I left out will make little difference to a horse who looks like he hates the game until finally putting in a shift when everything has flown...

[ComplyOrDie]

Big field may well help, but I think the furlong I left out will make little difference to a horse who looks like he hates the game until finally putting in a shift when everything has flown...

Fair enough. We all have differing opinions on horses.

I think he's far form a horse that looks like he hates the game personally.

[DenmanSacre]

Whatmore has an excellent profile for this. 4th behind Imperial Aura and Galvin last season over an inadequate two and half miles, stepping up in trip after running a big race at last seasons Festival makes gives him a nice profile for this.

Jonjo is in flying form and Cloth Cap surely heads here and still looks attractively handicapped. He's got form in all the right races, and it would hardly be unusual to see a Trevor Hemmings horse run well in the race. He wasn't given the best of rides in the Kim Muir last season, when he was never properly put in the race. Anyway he looks a much better horse this season, and he'll be a contender.

The one I'd confidently nominate as the right horse is Happygolucky. Novices have a good record in the race, he has a nice profile, and excellent course form including being beaten 3 lengths in the Ballymore trial at the Open Meeting behind Thyme Hill, 3rd beaten 3 lengths in the Martin Pipe when hampered at the last, and a recent win in a novice chase over course and distance at the International Meeting. I think he's very well handicapped, and he's the horse I really like for this. Currently available at prices up to 33/1, I think he'll go off 10-12/1 on the day which would offer a nice boost to the odds with the shorties. There's a possibility he could still go for the RSA or the NH Chase, but I think that's unlikley when this is winnable off his current mark. For me personally, assuming he lines up I will be heavily into him. He's already a 50 point winner for me, and I can see my self going back in several times on confirmation that this is his race.

These are on my shortlist for the race and all are decent prices. Preference would be for Happygolucky though and I could see him being 8/1 or lower on the day if he turns up.