Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

[Kevloaf]

Not sure he means exactly that Kev.
Are you thinking of Altior ?

To say "I just cant see how anyone can argue he has a better chance in the Ballymore." is just plain wrong.

You cannot argue a horse will be better suited up in trip because they haven't done it!



What about people who look at breeding? Are they stupid because they can argue a horse would be better up in trip?



Annoyed at myself for getting involved in this "debate".

Page after page of the same crap. I hope Envoi Allen gets beat.... he's an over hyped bumper who and bumper champions generally disappoint.

[Lobos]

You get a lot of bartlett types running in that.
Has everyone covered EA for the bartlett

I'd laugh my balls off it that happened.

[Saxon Warrior]

Its all gone EA crazy on this thread. We could probably do with a break from it. Let's focus on the Grade 2 in Ireland over 2M4F on Sunday. Final Decs at 11am tomorrow, Andy Dufresne, Abacadabras etc.

[Scooby91]

Its all gone EA crazy on this thread. We could probably do with a break from it. Let's focus on the Grade 2 in Ireland over 2M4F on Sunday. Final Decs at 11am tomorrow, Andy Dufresne, Abacadabras etc.

There's about as much chance of abacadabras running in that, as there is envoi allen running in the supreme.

[Quevega]

Response to Kev....

I used the Altior example for a reason.
The further you go the more that stamina comes into play in any race ran at a reasonable pace.
It's fair to say that as and when he steps up in trip he will more than likely be facing horses more used or bred for stamina.
Lets call it a slightly different division.

I'm fairly sure that CCM was suggesting that if he were to keep blasting off in front and outlasting and outbattling all the speed horses in the mainly speed influenced division - that is sufficient proof to show he would have an excellent chance in the supreme.

Whereas he may not have faced some horses operating at further prior to cheltenham.

I think some were suggesting that there are more 'dangers' and 'unknowns' that may turn up in the supreme vs the ballymore.
Not sure about this line of thought though myself.
Seems like opinion over fact.
As we cannot be certain where any of the other horses will go.

But should Envoi keep winning then they will likely be proved right as many will run in the other race anyway, should they wish to avoid.
Lots of if's and buts and something else people may want to avoid may emerge before March also.

He'll be another Dunguib anyway.
It's not like they always end up winning at the festival these types is it ?

[Quevega]

Its all gone EA crazy on this thread. We could probably do with a break from it. Let's focus on the Grade 2 in Ireland over 2M4F on Sunday. Final Decs at 11am tomorrow, Andy Dufresne, Abacadabras etc.

lets speculate for a few hours on who'll turn up in that instead

[Kevloaf]

Response to Kev....

I used the Altior example for a reason.
The further you go the more that stamina comes into play in any race ran at a reasonable pace.
It's fair to say that as and when he steps up in trip he will more than likely be facing horses more used or bred for stamina.
Lets call it a slightly different division.

I'm fairly sure that CCM was suggesting that if he were to keep blasting off in front and outlasting and outbattling all the speed horses in the mainly speed influenced division - that is sufficient proof to show he would have an excellent chance in the supreme.

Whereas he may not have faced some horses operating at further prior to cheltenham.

I think some were suggesting that there are more 'dangers' and 'unknowns' that may turn up in the supreme vs the ballymore.
Not sure about this line of thought though myself.
Seems like opinion over fact.
As we cannot be certain where any of the other horses will go.

But should Envoi keep winning then they will likely be proved right as many will run in the other race anyway, should they wish to avoid.
Lots of if's and buts and something else people may want to avoid may emerge before March also.

He'll be another Dunguib anyway.
It's not like they always end up winning at the festival these types is it ?

Don't know what you're getting at though Q?

I'm just picking up on the one line that says you cannot argue a horse would be better up in trip.

You can argue it. YOU specifically can, you often say you care less for trip than others do.


I fully understand that EA is showing he'd win a Supreme.... my feeling is he'll be BETTER up in trip.... I can't prove it yet, I may never be able to prove it... but to dismiss anyone for thinking it is stupid.

Just because a horse is winning doesn't mean they can't be better at another trip. I don't need to list off examples of horses that won over 2 miles and were better over further do I?

[Lobos]

There's about as much chance of abacadabras running in that, as there is envoi allen running in the supreme.

Agree. Think Gordon will end up spreading prize between AD, Easywork and Thatsy. Hope Mullins throws Elixr into mix to shake them up.

[Saxon Warrior]

There's about as much chance of abacadabras running in that, as there is envoi allen running in the supreme.

Yes Gordon has six entries, like everyone who block books graded races some entries take some fathoming. I dont see Abacadabras running on Sunday but I can see Andy D, and then we will know a lot more about him.

[Quevega]

Don't know what you're getting at though Q?

I'm just picking up on the one line that says you cannot argue a horse would be better up in trip.

You can argue it. YOU specifically can, you often say you care less for trip than others do.


I fully understand that EA is showing he'd win a Supreme.... my feeling is he'll be BETTER up in trip.... I can't prove it yet, I may never be able to prove it... but to dismiss anyone for thinking it is stupid.

Yep, agree with all of that.
It's the argument vs evidence thing though.
That's what people were not quite getting.

You can always attempt to make a case for anything you like, but the case is much stronger with facts, evidence and proof (beyond a reasonable doubt) I've been watching a lot of courtroom documentaries recently.

There were also two different discussions going on.

1. What race will he run in ? (think we have a very good idea what this will be, although IMO it's not 100% certain, but close)

2. Which race offers him the best chance of winning ? - If we held a court case tomorrow with a jury of 12 with both sides of the argument stating their case who would win ? (I think we all know who would have more factual evidence)

[Kautothegreat8]

As much as I’ve been all over Envoi since last season I really do think Andy D could be an absolute monster. That comment is clearly not based on form but we’ve all seen superstars run and to the naked eye he looks very impressive. After this weekend there could be only one decision for Envoi’s connections..... Supreme or Champion.

[archie]

Its all gone EA crazy on this thread. We could probably do with a break from it. Let's focus on the Grade 2 in Ireland over 2M4F on Sunday. Final Decs at 11am tomorrow, Andy Dufresne, Abacadabras etc.

Andy Dufresne
Conflated
Latest Exhibition
Sixshooter

[SeanRock]

Andy Dufresne
Conflated
Latest Exhibition
Sixshooter

I wasn't expecting such a light field, was hoping to see Fury Road get a proper test but he may be kept fresh for the 3m at Limerick.

[charlie]

Andy Dufresne
Conflated
Latest Exhibition
Sixshooter

Latest Exhibition to chase home AD would be lovely with a view to the AB. Interesting they persist with 2m5f for AD. After Gordon’s comments I thought they may drop him back in trip. Good to see him out again though

[Can't Catch Me]

To say "I just cant see how anyone can argue he has a better chance in the Ballymore." is just plain wrong.

You cannot argue a horse will be better suited up in trip because they haven't done it!



What about people who look at breeding? Are they stupid because they can argue a horse would be better up in trip?



Annoyed at myself for getting involved in this "debate".

Page after page of the same crap. I hope Envoi Allen gets beat.... he's an over hyped bumper who and bumper champions generally disappoint.

Page after page of crap? Thought it was an interesting debate personally.

Bit harsh to call me 'plain wrong' and my argument 'stupid' because I see it differently to you. If I am 'plain wrong', there must be concrete facts he will be better up in trip. And not just opinion.

Q has answered a lot of the points well so need repeating what he has said.... I think the horse has an equal chance in either race. Cant see what so controversial about that tbh. As for your breeding point, with all due respect I dont think there are many people on here who have more of an interest in that side of it than me. Why on earth would you suggest I think people are stupid because they think he will stay? I think he will stay.