Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

[Lobos]

What I have learnt with this debate and my own bets is that next season when I'm backing any horse for the Novice races I'm going to go down the TWAR market. My mate has a shed load on Envoi in that market at pretty prices from a high of 10.88/1 and he couldn't give a shit where he ends up !

[Parachute Paddy]

The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..

[jonthehammer]

one of the best debates I have seen on here EVER, its like Boris v Jeremy. Well done all.

I have him covered for both but main bet is Ballymore and I also think that's where he will end up. More a hunch than anything but the money being laid down on these things does normally tell a tale.

[Kautothegreat8]

The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..

Couldn’t disagree more. Speed in a supreme is massively overrated. You need to gallop and stay, a turn of foot is more likely in the Ballymore. They go one hell of a gallop in the supreme and think he can dictate things from the front.

[SeanRock]

The Cheveley angle is interesting, could be a carbon copy of last season with Envoi again taking the vacant spot left by Malone Road. Albeit there is the option of multiple races this year to factor in. I'd imagine Cheveley had a bigger say last year because they wanted runners at the festival but i'd be pretty confident that Gordon will make the decision this year.

I think its clear that the plan at the start of the season was Ballymore but if he's beating everything over 2m why would you step up. IMO he would be more vulnerable to a 'speed' horse over 2m and I'd be pretty confident he'd have everything covered in the Ballly. If you're placing the horse on where it has the best chance of winning you're going Bally 100%.

Would he be eligible for the race City Island won at Naas? Would be surprised if he didn't go to the DRF though..

No that was a ‘for auction’ novice hurdle, he wouldn’t qualify. I can see him going straight to Cheltenham after Naas!

[Parachute Paddy]

Couldn’t disagree more. Speed in a supreme is massively overrated. You need to gallop and stay, a turn of foot is more likely in the Ballymore. They go one hell of a gallop in the supreme and think he can dictate things from the front.

Good job he can do both. Makes this debate more interesting. Bit far to say speed is overrated. It's a 2 mile race, of course you need speed. I don't buy into that theory as much as others.

[hors3s]

Good job he can do both. Makes this debate more interesting. Bit far to say speed is overrated. It's a 2 mile race, of course you need speed. I don't buy into that theory as much as others.

You definately need to stay further than the bare 2miles in the Supreme. Its run at full blast from start to finish, where as the ballymore they can crawl round for 2 mile then it turns into the Epsom Dash.

[Parachute Paddy]

Will have to agree to disagree on the above lads!

More pressingly, can anyone direct me to this PP market on where he runs? I can't find it for love nor money and it seems to be carrying a lot of weight in this discussion. Wouldn't mind seeing the 1/3 with my own eyes!

[charlie]

Just reading back through the Envoi Allen Supreme/Ballymore 'debate' from last night. Took some reading

Re Cheveley Park Stud, I doubt they would tell Gordon where to send their horses, less so with Envoi Allen who carries such a hefty reputation. Their racing director (Chris Richardson) doesn’t even go to Cheltenham because it falls during peak breeding season and Mr Thompson views NH racing as a hobby. They are far less embedded in the jumps than they are the flat, and I think they will be happy leaving the decision down to the professionals they pay, aka Gordon.

If the FJF did a ‘sweeping definitive statement day’ Kautothegreat8 (excellent name btw) then 11/12/19 would go down in history, and you would win it on the absolute snaff taking a pull .

Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

I am in little doubt EA will end up here and don't really get why this splits opinion. When an owner says they are staying over 2 miles at Xmas and the market reacts by halving the price of Abacadabras and pushes out Envoi Allen, it should be an instant red flag to anyone thinking supreme, as should the race sponsor having EA at half the price for the Ballymore than Supreme. Markets aren't always right (but usually are) and I'm confident they have it spot on, before looking at everything else we know.

Gordon will place Envoi Allen in the race he thinks he is most likely to win, which seems like an obvious point but its the one getting overlooked. The supreme doesn't become the more winnable race (or the more prestigious race) just because we have only seen EA over 2 miles. It's a difficult equation and can seem quite contradictory because Ballymore's can turn into a sprints and Supremes are won by stayers, but for me there are more unknowns in a Supreme and Envoi Allen's core asset is his engine, more so than his speed (when I watch him that's what I see). Gordon echoes this view in his post race comments (Royal Bond): 'I didn't want it to turn into a sprint'. It reaffirms that Envoi Allen over 2m could (not would, but could) be more vulnerable to a horse with more speed (in Gordon's opinion, not mine), and there's a wealth of comments from Elliott that relate directly to his strong views on his stamina. 2m5f has been their plan from the word go, and I view his winning well over 2m as part of that plan, not contrary to that plan (this is the point that seems to divide opinion).

Until something is said definitively all we have to go on is our own judgement and how we interpret the market, trainer comments and visual impression left by the horse. I trust my judgement and have little doubt he will end up in the Ballymore. He looks as tailor made for the race as Samcro did when winning it for Gordon in 2018, who also raced more over 2m than he did over 2m5f. They share similar profiles as well as lofty reputations, but for me the answers are right there in front of us and the whole thing is being unnecessarily over complicated. If it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck, tastes like a duck and walks (or is it waddles?) like a duck, then it's probably a duck.

[Quevega]

Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

Who exactly has to answer that question though Charlie ?, except those that believe he definitely will be.

The correct answer has to be "Don't Know"

If I don't believe in God. I don't have to prove that there is no God.

The onus is on those that says there is a God to prove their belief.

[SAMCRO]

I can see him going for the lawlors 2m 4 race, drop back to 2 miles at the DRF then onto the ballymore at cheltenham. With alot more chat and discussion to come

[charlie]

Nobody has been able to answer my unanswerable question yet - how do we know EA won’t be more suited to 2m5f?

Who exactly has to answer that question though Charlie ?, except those that believe he definitely will be.

The correct answer has to be "Don't Know"

If I don't believe in God. I don't have to prove that there is no God.

The onus is on those that says there is a God to prove their belief.

That is the correct answer

[JackieMoon33]

On a brighter note, Chantry House declared tomorrow

[Can't Catch Me]

Good post charlie.

Not wanting to go over it all again (think I had my say last night!), but as said, if I had a gun to my head right now, I'd say Ballymore too.

But I have the biggest issue with the notion that they sat down in the summer to make their plans for the season... and when it came to EA they basically said 'Ballymore. Regardless of how he runs in any of his races or what he shows us in his races before the Festival, and regardless of what any other horse in England or Ireland does, he's going there. End of conversation'.

That just wouldnt make sense to me. Why would they be so cast iron? Just for stable money? Surely not.

The likes of Willie may not even know what he's doing with some of his a couple of weeks before Cheltenham.

If he does line up in the Ballymore, you can be sure some will say 'Ballymore, as was certain all along' or something similar. I just dont think its that cut and dry.

[Can't Catch Me]

On a brighter note, Chantry House declared tomorrow

Excellent. Excited to see this one.