Champion Hurdle 2020

[charlie]

33s + if hes beat surely.

I imagine that's right if he's beat. To echo what you said above, it's a nothing race but the market will no doubt overreact to a good win, but I will need to see him winning hard held and very easily to keep the bet live.

[Kevloaf]

If Fusil Raffles wins the CH, I definitely will be making a loss on the race.

Every single season the Adonis winner gets over hyped and because he got injured he has this air of invincibility about him.

He only beat Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L, which while that's decent, doesn't prove he's CH class.

....and Nicky Henderson talking him up holds very little gravitas in my book - Charli Parcs the most high profile off the top of my head.

There is also an assumption that he's definitely better than Pentland Hills, again led by Nicky talking about it... when really ther eis no evidence for that either. Fusil Raffles is being given credit for a lot of things he hasn't done yet.

If he beats Grand Sancy and the rest easily today, is that CH winning form?

I'm not expecting him to lose today but if he gets cut from 16/1 to anything single figures it'll be the worst priced horse for the festival.


Yes, I know he can improve blah blah, but as is usually the case when I'm on about a horses value - he's priced as if he's literally already made that improvement so it's a guess to end up on a horse that's the right price, rather than the false price he'd be after winning.


IF he wins easily today he should be 16/1 for the CH and that's a different story, taking the poke now is exactly that, a poke.

Not just this horse in particular either, that is the state we're all in, we have to back the horse before we see it so IF we're right, we are on at the "correct" price, rather than the cut price.




Obviously not meaning to knock that specific bet, as it's absolutely no different than me backing something I havne't seen yet either.... it's just an example of where we have to back a horses price too early to "end up" on the actual value.

[Scooby91]

If Fusil Raffles wins the CH, I definitely will be making a loss on the race.

Every single season the Adonis winner gets over hyped and because he got injured he has this air of invincibility about him.

He only beat Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L, which while that's decent, doesn't prove he's CH class.

....and Nicky Henderson talking him up holds very little gravitas in my book - Charli Parcs the most high profile off the top of my head.

There is also an assumption that he's definitely better than Pentland Hills, again led by Nicky talking about it... when really ther eis no evidence for that either. Fusil Raffles is being given credit for a lot of things he hasn't done yet.

If he beats Grand Sancy and the rest easily today, is that CH winning form?

I'm not expecting him to lose today but if he gets cut from 16/1 to anything single figures it'll be the worst priced horse for the festival.


Yes, I know he can improve blah blah, but as is usually the case when I'm on about a horses value - he's priced as if he's literally already made that improvement so it's a guess to end up on a horse that's the right price, rather than the false price he'd be after winning.


IF he wins easily today he should be 16/1 for the CH and that's a different story, taking the poke now is exactly that, a poke.

Not just this horse in particular either, that is the state we're all in, we have to back the horse before we see it so IF we're right, we are on at the "correct" price, rather than the cut price.

Hes deffinately better than pentland hills.



In a normal year.
Fusil should be a 20s / 25s shot.

Pentland 40s

Klassical dream tbf is under priced by atleast 3 points.

[Quevega]

If Fusil Raffles wins the CH, I definitely will be making a loss on the race.

Every single season the Adonis winner gets over hyped and because he got injured he has this air of invincibility about him.

He only beat Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L, which while that's decent, doesn't prove he's CH class.

....and Nicky Henderson talking him up holds very little gravitas in my book - Charli Parcs the most high profile off the top of my head.

There is also an assumption that he's definitely better than Pentland Hills, again led by Nicky talking about it... when really ther eis no evidence for that either. Fusil Raffles is being given credit for a lot of things he hasn't done yet.

If he beats Grand Sancy and the rest easily today, is that CH winning form?

I'm not expecting him to lose today but if he gets cut from 16/1 to anything single figures it'll be the worst priced horse for the festival.


Yes, I know he can improve blah blah, but as is usually the case when I'm on about a horses value - he's priced as if he's literally already made that improvement so it's a guess to end up on a horse that's the right price, rather than the false price he'd be after winning.


IF he wins easily today he should be 16/1 for the CH and that's a different story, taking the poke now is exactly that, a poke.

Not just this horse in particular either, that is the state we're all in, we have to back the horse before we see it so IF we're right, we are on at the "correct" price, rather than the cut price.

I'd agree with all that if it wasn't for espoir d'allen ??
proper makes me doubt.
And is the champion hurdler running in the fishery today ?
Or at Wincanton
surely not.

[Kevloaf]

I'd likely back Pentland Hills e/w at 40/1.

I'd think about Fusil Raffles at 25/1, given that I like to make books in races that I think will be small fields I probably would back it.



There prices now and likely after today make that impossible - I'm not rolling something on to a horse I don't believe will win either.

KD is too short now too, obviously won't be adding anything on him at his price.






Espoir D'allen might have been a superstar but he may also have just ran to form and everything else blew up - unfortunately that won't get tested. As with most of last seasons form I'm wary of it, it was such a freak season with the ground and the flu interupting preps etc.

[Quevega]

Even though the champion hurdle was a messy result.
He still beat Melon 15 lengths ?
who, you could argue possibly ran his usual race.
And fuck the flu interuptions (that is almost certainly typical trainer bullshit) - Henderson has said that for every one of his that didn't win.
It's not like they were all tailed off is it ?
Yeah we lost by a length cos of the flu jab ?

[Scooby91]

On another note of all the ones underpriced. I honestly think sharjah is twice the price he should be.

[Quevega]

sometimes I just wish they'd say they weren't good enough on the day or they were beat by the better horse. (a bit more often at least)

[Kevloaf]

I'm just saying as a season it won't surprise me if what we saw last year isn't as reliable as it usually is. We're told those jabs affect horses in different wants and I have no reason to doubt it.

and yeah he did beat Melon 15L, and if that's true it doesn't mean Fusil Raffles is any good. It's just an irrational link between two unrelated horses that share an age in common as well as both getting an injury.

[Quevega]

I'm just saying as a season it won't surprise me if what we saw last year isn't as reliable as it usually is. We're told those jabs affect horses in different wants and I have no reason to doubt it.

and yeah he did beat Melon 15L, and if that's true it doesn't mean Fusil Raffles is any good.

I understand where you're coming from.
But the flu jab or any other excuse is simply that (an offered excuse as to why the horse didn't win or run to form)
It's Like trainer's believe every horse in every race is entitled to win with the perfect prep (which is impossible of course)
It has to be taken with a pinch, as it simply cannot be proven that any excuse was the reason for a horse not winning.


Absolutely nothing to do with fusil raffles.
It's the five year olds thing that bothers me, as I've been happy to rule them out and then we get one win be 15l in probably the best champion hurdle for a few years (before the event)

[Quevega]

I was willing to believe Laurina could improve her form last year and be a contender (partly trainer based)
But not espoir d'allen (mainly age related)
But in the lead up - they both beat stormy island in similar fashion, and one was much bigger on the day.

So I'm now very much in two minds as to doubting the potential improvement of these four yr olds

and you've kind of gotta be in it to win it, and there don't look like many takers this year at the moment.

I hope he gets stuffed today tbh

[Scooby91]

I was willing to believe Laurina could improve her form last year and be a contender (partly trainer based)
But not espoir d'allen (mainly age related)
But in the lead up - they both beat stormy island in similar fashion, and one was much bigger on the day.

So I'm now very much in two minds as to doubting the potential improvement of these four yr olds

and you've kind of gotta be in it to win it, and there don't look like many takers this year at the moment.

I hope he gets stuffed today tbh

Are you going to take the 16s Q if he travels all over grand sancy, buveur dair style and cruises to a cosy one?

Really wish there was something better in the race but we've to be thankful atleast grand sancy is in there.

[charlie]

If Fusil Raffles wins the CH, I definitely will be making a loss on the race.

Every single season the Adonis winner gets over hyped and because he got injured he has this air of invincibility about him.

He only beat Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L, which while that's decent, doesn't prove he's CH class.

....and Nicky Henderson talking him up holds very little gravitas in my book - Charli Parcs the most high profile off the top of my head

Has he? I haven't seen much that makes me think that but your spot on re Hendo talking horses up - jesus I'd forgotten about Charli Parcs

I agree that whilst beating Fakir D'oudariries by 2.75L doesn't prove he's CH class, but his career is no doubt in front of him and he's done all that's been asked of him to date well. He jumps hurdles slickly and I'd like to see more of the same today.

Today will be one of those races where if he bolts up people will say he's beaten relatively little (and rightly so) with a view to the CH and we haven't learnt a whole lot. If he gets beat then he'll be written off for the CH (and rightly so).

[Rigga]

Henderson thinks they are all Altior.. Can never gauge a proper opinion from him..

[Quevega]

Are you going to take the 16s Q if he travels all over grand sancy, buveur dair style and cruises to a cosy one?

Really wish there was something better in the race but we've to be thankful atleast grand sancy is in there.

Can’t make my mind up at minute
Probably ought to with cash out available