Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

[Quevega]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were. (I'm guessing but I reckon all were 33-1 or much bigger at this stage)
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

[Scooby91]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were.
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

Prices are awful currently, when you had the likes of shattered love, kemboy, alboum photo.... all at 33s to 50s last year. And this years placed horses in the RSA are 10s /12s.


(Bar the obvious in alboum photo and kemboy)
Im only interested in 1 horse ( Delta Work) but he really should be a 25/1 + chance going on historical odds of the likes of alboum photo and disko , who had very simular achievents to date.

[Kevloaf]

I considered Burrows Saint at 66s as a lively outsider but the horse he beat in the Irish National wouldn't get anywhere near placing in a Gold Cup so I put a pin in it for now

[taylorch1990]

Been looking at Gold Cup Market this afternoon.

Am I wrong ? Or is their not much value in this market compared to previous years.

I'm Sure that last year some of the second season novices were still available at 33's or 40's. Like Al Boum Photo et al.

If you go down oddschecker then you have to go a fair way down the list before you see anything that's overpriced IMO.

The angle I took was the 7yr olds which has been mentioned on this thread recently by a few.

The four 7 yr olds who contested the Gold Cup this year were. (I'm guessing but I reckon all were 33-1 or much bigger at this stage)
Kemboy
Elegant Escape
Al Boum Photo
& Clan Des Obeaux.

All four were probably not at the top of most peoples list's going into the season as there were other leading novices like Monalee & Presenting Percy. But they all had tremendous years one way or another.

Finishing 1st, 5th and 6th and burger bar - in the race itself.

So with that in mind I'm seriously considering backing the following horses.

Burrows Saint 66-1 B365.
Defi du Seuil 40-1 B365
Discorama 66-1 B365
Vinndication 100-1 Unibet
Champ 50-1 B365 -

All these for one reason or another aren't expected to be contenders, but all have valid cases to end up being there on the day and in with an improvers chance.

The three I like the most are.

Burrows Saint -
won Irish national, trainer is very good and Gold cup would feasibly be a target as they would expect him to improve to that level over the season if things go to plan.

Defi de Seuil -
One of the better novices from last season and many people assume it may stay over shorter (and they're probably right), but it's not out of the question that this horse could improve for further, much like Lostintranslation appeared to do at aintree. An impressive JLT winner, previous triumph winner who is competitive in grade ones over 2 miles. Classy horse and trainer is more than capable.

Champ -
Will be 8 next year and may even stay hurdling, but if he does go chasing and gets out early enough and looks super impressive (which is possible) then they may have a crack at the thistlecrack/Coneygree route. It has to be tempting given his age and even if he sticks to novice company in 2019, the denman chase or Cotswold Chase as a final prep before a gold cup run, are often softish grade ones (open company).

All these selections have plenty of ifs and buts and will need things to fall into place, and the prices reflect this to a certain extent, but I think they are all a little overpriced when you look at the positives.

I'll definitely hold fire before betting but if Champ is conformed chasing and remains 50-1 then I'll probably take a punt on him.
I'll also see where Defi starts his season (distance wise) also.
Might back Burrows soon enough but expect he may go under radar for long enough given Willie has the first two in the market already.

Of the other two, the trainers wouldn't provide me with massive confidence, but both are very capable. Vinndication has been far more a taking horse than results in recent times and they perhaps ought to just get down to business now and stop fannying so much.
Discorama could easily be one that has been brought along slowly, and the four miler form may well look good later in season, he definitely has a heart for the battle (unless that day frightened him), and I think Invitation Only was in with a shout in the Gold cup before sadly departing.

Couldn't agree more regarding the value Hard to get involved at this stage but I have come up with a similar shortlist to you Burrows Saint stood out at the prices but Mullins already has 2 at the front of the market so could be a national horse instead. Discorama has great Cheltenham form and the 4 Miler is a decent guide in recent years. And Vinndication is a cliff horse for me I'll back him wherever he runs for better or worse.

[The King Pimm]

Vinndication schooled poorly in the build up to the JLT but after being withdrawn did turn up and complete but never really competed, the JLT was the first and only time he had raced at Cheltenham so whilst he would really need to improve this season to be remotely competitive Kemboy ran a similar race in the previous JLT and went on to make the necessary improvement to win Grade 1 races so it’s possible with Vinndication. He is certainly well thought of by Kim Bailey and was one of Paul Ferguson’s horses to follow last season.

[archie]

I really don't get the enthusiasm for 50/1 any horse to do the Ladbrokes/Gold Cup double and I'm even more mystified that you'd do two horses in that market.
Topofthegame and Santini are 12/1 and 10/1 best price for the Ladbrokes (on Oddschecker) with those prices reversed for the Gold Cup and either would have to win the Ladbrokes by the length of the straight to come down to 4/1 for the Gold Cup, assuming that none of the other four horses at the top of the Gold Cup betting has fallen by the wayside in the next 3 months.
It's nearly 12 weeks to the Ladbrokes and 8 weeks until the weights are published. I can see the justification for backing two in the Ladbrokes because both seem to have the race as a nominated target and they will likely start much shorter on the day but it's surely better to take the projected winnings from that race and reinvest in the Gold Cup after mature reflection.

To further cloud the issue, although some have liked the Ladbrokes/Gold Cup stat there is a recency bias in there. Quite legitimate to say that 2 of the last 12 Ladbrokes/Hennessy winners have gone on to win that season's Gold Cup, but expand the data a little and you can also say that only 2 of the last 35 have managed to do it.

[billymag]

I considered Burrows Saint at 66s as a lively outsider but the horse he beat in the Irish National wouldn't get anywhere near placing in a Gold Cup so I put a pin in it for now

RR will be talking him up in the next few weeks for the Gold Cup

[archie]

Interesting to note that Burrows Saint followed pretty much the same post Cheltenham race route as Kemboy the year before, ie. the G3 at Limerick and Irish National, albeit in the reverse order due to the later Easter. The ratings are similar as well which makes me wonder if he may go the handicap route early on. Probably depends on when he's ready.

[Kevloaf]

I really don't get the enthusiasm for 50/1 any horse to do the Ladbrokes/Gold Cup double and I'm even more mystified that you'd do two horses in that market.
Topofthegame and Santini are 12/1 and 10/1 best price for the Ladbrokes (on Oddschecker) with those prices reversed for the Gold Cup and either would have to win the Ladbrokes by the length of the straight to come down to 4/1 for the Gold Cup, assuming that none of the other four horses at the top of the Gold Cup betting has fallen by the wayside in the next 3 months.
It's nearly 12 weeks to the Ladbrokes and 8 weeks until the weights are published. I can see the justification for backing two in the Ladbrokes because both seem to have the race as a nominated target and they will likely start much shorter on the day but it's surely better to take the projected winnings from that race and reinvest in the Gold Cup after mature reflection.

To further cloud the issue, although some have liked the Ladbrokes/Gold Cup stat there is a recency bias in there. Quite legitimate to say that 2 of the last 12 Ladbrokes/Hennessy winners have gone on to win that season's Gold Cup, but expand the data a little and you can also say that only 2 of the last 35 have managed to do it.

I haven't placed the bets but...

2 in the last 35 is a 17.5/1 chance ..... at 50/1 - two darts, 25/1 on a 17.5/1 shot.

[Kevloaf]

RR will be talking him up in the next few weeks for the Gold Cup

That shouldn't be a reason to back him

As I said, I looked at him... then put a pin in it because I was in no rush... the improvement that could come (like Kemboy - and interesting to see the comparison from archie)

I suppose if RR is about to start talking about him I'll have to think about it sooner rather than later.

[Quevega]

I haven't placed the bets but...

2 in the last 35 is a 17.5/1 chance ..... at 50/1 - two darts, 25/1 on a 17.5/1 shot.

Are they really going to run Santini and Topofthegame in the Ladbrokes though ???
Rated 163 & 164 respectively will make it tough.

Denman won his first off 161 & Bobs Worth off 160.
Are these two that good ??

If they do run (and I understand the trainers have kind of mooted it) and win. Then they will surely go favourite for the Gold cup.

Agree with Archie though and 50-1 just seems skinny to me.

[Kevloaf]

Are they really going to run Santini and Topofthegame in the Ladbrokes though ???
Rated 163 & 164 respectively will make it tough.

Denman won his first off 161 & Bobs Worth off 160.
Are these two that good ??

If they do run (and I understand the trainers have kind of mooted it) and win. Then they will surely go favourite for the Gold cup.

Agree with Archie though and 50-1 just seems skinny to me.

My point was taking the horses out of it... I was pointing out that is why you could have some enthusiasm at the price.



I don't know how good they are.... relative to the competition they might not need to be... so even if they won off higher marks than Denman, I don't know if I'd believe it

There isn't a single person (official handicapper included) that doesn't rate the second season chasers highly that I've come across yet... so it might pay to be against the grain this year.... as relative to other years RSA winners and placed horses they're horrible value in the Gold Cup market.

On the non-RSA 2nd season chasers, Lostintranslation for me looks the most standout "horrible" price.... but I wouldn't say he can't win the Gold Cup... I just wouldn't think about backing him yet

[Quevega]

My point was taking the horses out of it... I was pointing out that is why you could have some enthusiasm at the price.



I don't know how good they are.... relative to the competition they might not need to be... so even if they won off higher marks than Denman, I don't know if I'd believe it

There isn't a single person (official handicapper included) that doesn't rate the second season chasers highly that I've come across yet... so it might pay to be against the grain this year.... as relative to other years RSA winners and placed horses they're horrible value in the Gold Cup market.

On the non-RSA 2nd season chasers, Lostintranslation for me looks the most standout "horrible" price.... but I wouldn't say he can't win the Gold Cup... I just wouldn't think about backing him yet

I understood what you were saying.

But on the two horses and their chances, they will have to be very very good to win off those marks even in an average renewal.
And you may be on the right lines with the ratings. Is it really feasible that the first three in the RSA are all that good ?

They are all underpriced including LIT, but one or two are likely very good.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Are they really going to run Santini and Topofthegame in the Ladbrokes though ???
Rated 163 & 164 respectively will make it tough.

Denman won his first off 161 & Bobs Worth off 160.
Are these two that good ??

If they do run (and I understand the trainers have kind of mooted it) and win. Then they will surely go favourite for the Gold cup.

Agree with Archie though and 50-1 just seems skinny to me.

I think they are almost certain to run them both in the Hennessy. The race would look ideal to my eye, but as you say, they are hardly thrown in. On the flip side, second season chasers have a great record in the race and are my usual starting point when trying to find the winner.

Fwiw, Santini was available at 80/1 for the double only a week ago which I thought was a decent enough price.

[Quevega]

I think they are almost certain to run them both in the Hennessy. The race would look ideal to my eye, but as you say, they are hardly thrown in. On the flip side, second season chasers have a great record in the race and are my usual starting point when trying to find the winner.

Fwiw, Santini was available at 80/1 for the double only a week ago which I thought was a decent enough price.

As Kev said it will depend on the field that lines up and ground and other factors.
But, at the weights alone, they'll be giving some good horses around about a stone. A very tough ask. Although not impossible.

Horses like Discorama, La Bague au Roi, Le Breuil, OK Corral, Mister Malarky, Vinndication.

Just a few of the second season chasers that could line up, and all rated around the 150 mark.
All these look solid enough stayers and just as likely to improve.


I'd be very interested in OK Corral myself, but no mention of it or sign of it in the listings.

For Santini or Topofthegame to win against a decent field then you're talking 170+ already and gold cup favouritism for sure.