Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[archie]

Whether or not Samcro has schooled (badly or well), he is still a horse who hasn't won for 17 months and missed the second half of last season. There is no reason for his price to change until he is on the point of running (October?) so backing him right now doesn't seem logical unless it's a time restricted free bet.

[Kautostar]

But we all know the bookies will cut samcro at the first sign of a positive stable report

[ComplyOrDie]

Whether or not Samcro has schooled (badly or well), he is still a horse who hasn't won for 17 months and missed the second half of last season. There is no reason for his price to change until he is on the point of running (October?) so backing him right now doesn't seem logical unless it's a time restricted free bet.

There were excuses last season, whether believed or not is another thing, but you have your visits etc... as a part owner, would you take excuses/reasons at face value or have reason to disbelieve them?

On another note, he hadn't seen a hurdle before he ended up @ 8's from 16's for the Ballymore, Melon the same for Willie, you know these bookmakers don't give you a second should they get a whiff of anything, and the punter would usually be last to know, as you quite rightly put, there is no reason for his price to change, but we both know that's not how it works.

The one thing we know about Samcro is that he has ability and he's a festival winner. If you can take the excuses/reasons at face value then you are playing the 16's on whether he can jump a fence or not, a bit like we were before he jumped a hurdle. I feel I can name a lot worse horses in value right now than Samcro.

[jono]

There were excuses last season, whether believed or not is another thing, but you have your visits etc... as a part owner, would you take excuses/reasons at face value or have reason to disbelieve them?

On another note, he hadn't seen a hurdle before he ended up @ 8's from 16's for the Ballymore, Melon the same for Willie, you know these bookmakers don't give you a second should they get a whiff of anything, and the punter would usually be last to know, as you quite rightly put, there is no reason for his price to change, but we both know that's not how it works.

The one thing we know about Samcro is that he has ability and he's a festival winner. If you can take the excuses/reasons at face value then you are playing the 16's on whether he can jump a fence or not, a bit like we were before he jumped a hurdle. I feel I can name a lot worse horses in value right now than Samcro.

The 16s is not just to see if he can jump a fence or not though is it? It'll also be whether he can get there fit and healthy, whether he ends up better than the opposition as for all he may take well to fences. Some may just be better.

Like I said I'd love to see it but personally 16/1 isn't yet enough to tempt me. And I wouldn't be backing if the sole reason is a fear of a price collapse.

[ComplyOrDie]

The 16s is not just to see if he can jump a fence or not though is it? It'll also be whether he can get there fit and healthy, whether he ends up better than the opposition as for all he may take well to fences. Some may just be better.

Like I said I'd love to see it but personally 16/1 isn't yet enough to tempt me. And I wouldn't be backing if the sole reason is a fear of a price collapse.

Well no, not for everyone of course, as has been addressed by archie and others, but for me, you have to believe in a horse to back it as well and I do that with Samcro. For me it's a case of needing to jump a fence, not to necessarily win the race, but for me to believe I got value at 16/1, because I know the ability the horse has.

I don't think fitness should be taken in to account at this stage because that literally goes for backing EVERY NH horse for the festival, if he doesn't make it due to that reason I won't be losing sleep over it because I am still backing him for the reasons I believe are correct.

[somer1]

I thought Samrco had been schooled over a fence as wasnt he jumpping hurdles big at the start of the season?

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Had 2.5 points with 365 on Samcro for the JLT at 16s. I wasn't keen on him at all last year over a shorter distance and cashed out a small bet for the CH after he got turned over on debut. I just think they thought he was so good and as they had plenty of novice chasers they'd go for the big one. Turned out to be a pretty bad call. As mentioned I'm not keen on him over 2 miles and he has it to prove up in trip so happy to go for JLT with cash out an option.

I see Scooby mentions no concerns over his jumping fences, I assume due to Samcro's PTP background. Rewatching that YouTube footage where be beats Elegant Esacpe in a PTP it's a bit inconclusive as only see him jump 4 fences and one is definitely a bit sketchy. Anyway I agree you could probably wait a couple of weeks but as COD says there's a chance of a price collapse while I'm at work, so 16s with cash out will do for me.

[The Don]

I had Samcro down for the RSA.... having won his point stamina shouldn’t be a problem and I think you need a turn of foot for the JLT that Samcro doesn’t have. He seems to travel well but lacks gears and to me looks like he wants 3 miles where his cruising speed would come to the fore.

[jono]

The RSA was always the race I anticipated for Samcro last year and it's the one price that I'd be looking more to invest at (25's) if I were too get involved. But It'll be the strongest novice chase division and I do think they may well go for the JLT and couldn't second guess after last season. The other question mark I'd have with him before he runs (or a horse who misses their Novice chase season) is we have no direct form line with the novices this year. Obviously we can make a call between the years - what appears to be the strongest and even just whether we think Samcro was better than them all but the vast majority of times when you weigh up the novice chasers for the new season you'll have the match ups and form lines over hurdles to form some substance. Just one thing lacking and another question mark which for me brings some more reluctance to back him now.

Black Op, Next Destination, Scarpeta, Duc de Genivieres, Vision des Flos, Paloma Blue, Whiskey Sour, Real Steel, Sharjah

Wouldn't jump out the page?

Champ, City Island, Bright Forecast, Battleoverdoyen, Minella Indo, Allaho

Look a fair level at this stage in comparison?
You could say his exploits in grade 1 open company are a level above (obviously being a level above the Novice hurdles last year) but he had more disappointments there than achievements?

To be fair he's a horse I wouldn't need too much persuadance to change my mind and back. A few positive mentions soon might even be enough but I'm airing on the side of caution for now at his price. The only temptation is to back with 365 with cashout as I do agree it's likely going to be the biggest price regardless of how he gets on bar absolutely bombing out.

[jono]

Thought i had read that other bookies than 365 had priced up the Ladbrokes Trophy/Gold Cup double but cant find anything.
Help Needed Please

SkyBet > Specials > National Hunt

Santini 80/1
Topofthegame 66/1

[somer1]

Cheers Jono.

[TJW1990]

Obviously not the most exciting race of the week but just looking at bits of value out there and think Concertista for the Mares Novice could be worth a couple of quid at 10s (bet365). Ran to within a head of winning the race this year on her first and only start over hurdles, and surely Mullins will be aiming her at this again? Gypsy Island does look impressive but had the one run over hurdles and got beaten before returning to bumpers for the rest of the season.

Like is said, not the most exciting race to be talking about, especially not at this stage, but what do people think as a bit of an ante post play?

[Kevloaf]

Obviously not the most exciting race of the week but just looking at bits of value out there and think Concertista for the Mares Novice could be worth a couple of quid at 10s (bet365). Ran to within a head of winning the race this year on her first and only start over hurdles, and surely Mullins will be aiming her at this again? Gypsy Island does look impressive but had the one run over hurdles and got beaten before returning to bumpers for the rest of the season.

Like is said, not the most exciting race to be talking about, especially not at this stage, but what do people think as a bit of an ante post play?

Welcome to the forum.

An interesting angle.... my guess would be you'd get bigger than 10/1 at some point during the season as 'sexier' types are talked up...

If she makes it into the first Mullins stable tour then perhaps not... but there are 40 horses more likely for him to mention.

Chante Neige being one....?



A nice angle to keep an eye on though, but 10/1 is short enough now when we're not sure she'd be even in the top 10 mares Mullins has to fire at the race (10 might be a bit far...)

[Middle_Of_March]

Welcome to the forum.

An interesting angle.... my guess would be you'd get bigger than 10/1 at some point during the season as 'sexier' types are talked up...

If she makes it into the first Mullins stable tour then perhaps not... but there are 40 horses more likely for him to mention.

Chante Neige being one....?



A nice angle to keep an eye on though, but 10/1 is short enough now when we're not sure she'd be even in the top 10 mares Mullins has to fire at the race (10 might be a bit far...)

I agree with this Kev.

She’s 10s because we’ve seen her. But we all know it’s much more likely he’s got a better one hidden away. He had supposedly better ones last year but never got them out. Even if there’s nothing for this season, last years options such as Chante Neige will likely get out this time with a years growth in them too.

I couldn’t back Concertista at 10/1 with counterfeit.

[TJW1990]

Good points, just looking for an angle away from the big races... Too much time on my hands I think!

Just on Chante Neige has anybody heard any updates?