Cheltenham 2020 - Ante post bets

[archie]

Last year I had the theory that Samcro stayed over hurdles because his schooling over fences didn't go well.

It may well be that his physical problems affected his schooling but I'd rather wait until he's jumped a fence in public and back him at a smaller price. I wouldn't back him with stolen money right now.

[archie]

This week's visit to Closutton emphasised that it's far too early to be thinking of specific targets for most of Willie's horses. The quote would be along the lines of 'plan' being a four letter word.

Speaking to others, the thinking is that Klassical Dream will stay over hurdles and that Laurina has a lot to prove to be viewed ahead of Benie Des Dieux. I wouldn't expect much news on promising new French imports or Arkle prospects until October.

[taylorch1990]

Looking to get involved on some ante post bets and 2 that interest me are draconien and next destination, both missed last season but were confirmed to go over fences. Draconien is best prices 40s for the arkle and Next Destination 25s for the RSA. Was wondering if anyone had heard about either horses wellbeing for the new season.

[jack1092]

Archie I have seen quite a few come out with that theory. Not sure I’d be a subscriber at all, the horse looked the second coming and would have a very good chance in a CH. Elliot wanted a Champion Hurdler I really believe it was that simple.

[archie]

The horse didn't look like the second coming in the second half of his novice season, just very good but not a natural hurdler. In retrospect, all he beat were nascent chasers and inconsistent horses like Sharjah. Keeping him over hurdles has got him used to losing.

[jack1092]

Hindsight Archie. I wasn’t on the Samcro brigade but he looked very good Archie, perhaps what looked to be an idling win at Cheltenham was all he actually had under the bonnet. But either way that doesn’t change things, at the time Elliot thought he had a champion hurdler which he tested at punchestown and having fallen gave them no answer. That’s why I think the poor schooling theory isn’t probably right..

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I’d be very surprised knowing how much Gigginstown love a chaser if Samcro hadn’t been tried over fences before the final decision to stay hurdling was made

[Faugheen_Machine]

Who is best priced Samcro to win any race? I can't find the market on Oddschecker anywhere.

[Nwfb89]

Who is best priced Samcro to win any race? I can't find the market on Oddschecker anywhere.

Hills 8s I think

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

I think Gigginstown’s Novice Chaser will be targeted as follows:

Arkle - Felix Desjy
JLT - Samcro
RSA - Battle Over Doyen

Had Commander of Fleet not sustained an injury I think that would have made the guesswork more complicated. Clearly Commander of Fleet would have gone RSA / 4 Miler.

[Middle_Of_March]

I think Gigginstown’s Novice Chaser will be targeted as follows:

Arkle - Felix Desjy
JLT - Samcro
RSA - Battle Over Doyen

Had Commander of Fleet not sustained an injury I think that would have made the guesswork more complicated. Clearly Commander of Fleet would have gone RSA / 4 Miler.

Cracking Smart will make a half-decent RSA type imo too

[The King Pimm]

How long is Commander of the Fleet expected to be out?

[ComplyOrDie]

I think 16/1 is a very good price to find out if Samcro can jump, because once confirmed, as has been said previously, the price will be gone. I added him last month, and had struck some 'any race' bets on him too, but ultimately I think he is JLT bound, provided he jumps well of course.

[jono]

How long is Commander of the Fleet expected to be out?

Out for the season (Both him and Defi Bleu) - picked up the injuries at Punchestown when they were pulled up.

Off the Gigginstown lot, even with those 2 injuries to name a few:

Felix Desjy
Samcro
Battleoverdoyen
Dallas des Pictons
Vision D'Honneur
Cracking Smart
Champagne Classic
Dallas des Pictons
Dortmund Park

Still plenty to sort out and i'd definitely be looking at the any race market for most even if i'd go along the same lines (as CNC) if I had to pick. Felix probably the only one you could be sure on for the 2m trip but Mengli Khan was similar and he ended up in the JLT. Unless there's a huge difference in price i.e Battleoverdoyen at 40's for the RSA I'd almost always take the any race option.

I do think the couple of runs, in good company last year for Champagne Classic could be a very good advantage for him if he goes down the 4 mile route again this year (a race he was lined up for until pulled last minute due to a steback)

On Samcro - head vs heart for me at this stage. Heart wants to see him become what the hype suggested 2 years ago. And he deserves to be judged on what he should have been doing all along (chasing up in trip) but head says to wait and see at least until the previews and stable tours start coming out in a month or so if the vibes are strong

[jack1092]

I’d be very surprised knowing how much Gigginstown love a chaser if Samcro hadn’t been tried over fences before the final decision to stay hurdling was made

Whilst thats probable- it doesn’t necessarily point to him having schooled poorly. If he had finished at punchestown only placed or whatever I’d imagine he’d have been chasing last year. The unknown factor was still there and they had every reason to think he was a CH horse with what was a poor year for 2milers and also having had one finish close up the season before