Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Istabraq]

Moon is about 238,800 miles away.
For those that were wondering.

Is it odd that as soon you asked the question about distance to the moon it was hard focusing on the rest of your post, but I'm a very tired man today.
And the answer is appreciated...

[Istabraq]

Also, they happen far less these days, Tiger Roll and Tidal Bay the two that spring to mind, but some horses are equally effective over any distance.
Unlikely too many in here will remember Desert Orchid (live) but he would run 6/7/8 times a year at all distances, in his Gold Cup winning year he won a Tingle Creek, a King George and a top 2m handicap (Ascot I think) giving 2 stone to the best 2 milers around, he also won a Whitbread and Irish National off top weight.
Granted he was an exception (and was trained that way) but it's certainly feasible horses can be as effective over 2 miles as they are 3 miles, one that springs to mind ironically is Envoi Allen...

[Quevega]

Also, they happen far less these days, Tiger Roll and Tidal Bay the two that spring to mind, but some horses are equally effective over any distance.
Unlikely too many in here will remember Desert Orchid (live) but he would run 6/7/8 times a year at all distances, in his Gold Cup winning year he won a Tingle Creek, a King George and a top 2m handicap (Ascot I think) giving 2 stone to the best 2 milers around, he also won a Whitbread and Irish National off top weight.
Granted he was an exception (and was trained that way) but it's certainly feasible horses can be as effective over 2 miles as they are 3 miles, one that springs to mind ironically is Envoi Allen...

The intermediate trips have reduced the ratio somewhat. Trainers have more options, whereas prior to this,the good horses would be more flexible and proved capable of adapting on occasions, because they simply had less options.

I've said it a million times before, that the average speed they travel at is not that different at all. So as long as they use energy in an efficient manner, then most Top horses would be competitive over most trips.

But it's true to say that they would have optimums, and this would vary according to individual ability and
course and ground conditions also.

Most of the time it's the ability that matters most, and then using that ability in the most efficient manner for the task in front of you.

Even if you're the most talented horse, if you run too fast too soon, on heavy ground, you're likely to get beat.
And if you're a horse laden with stamina and go too slow on a good surface, you're likely to get beat.

And so on...

I'm in a chatty mood

[voodoo child]

Comments from Paul Suggest not an Arkle Type anyway for Pic

[FONT="]Pic D'Orhy: Last year, we didn't run him in the Champion Hurdle
We never thought he's been a champion hurdler or a speedy horse.[/FONT]
He's a really staying, chasing type of horse.

In Mark Howards One Jump Ahead Paul Nicholls says "we are hoping he will develop into an Arkle horse this season, although we will try and find a small race to begin with. Two miles is his trip and i think he is a proper horse."

[Istabraq]

The intermediate trips have reduced the ratio somewhat.

Definitely, not always for the better for me...

[Lobos]

In Mark Howards One Jump Ahead Paul Nicholls says "we are hoping he will develop into an Arkle horse this season, although we will try and find a small race to begin with. Two miles is his trip and i think he is a proper horse."

They all make it up clearly.

[opatcho]

I think its a dangerous game trying to back a horse for something like the Arkle based on "you need a horse that's quick" or "you need a horse that stays". Why? Because it all depends on the conditions of the race on the day.

Normally, the Arkle end up being the smallest field of the festival which naturally leads itself to being one of the races which aren't ran at a proper true-festival-madness pace.
However, now and against the race throws up a staying type - for instance when footpad won. Conditions where testing and you had two nutters go off in front. The horse that could maintain a steady pace all the way through win

That the 2018 stayers hurdle was a farce in terms of pace. None at all and lead to a sprint finish - horse that has flat racing experience won and a bunch of 2 and a half miles filled the remaining position. That year the stayers race.... wasnt a staying affair, you needed a horse that displayed a element of speed. Last year with Apples Jade going off like a nutter, was more of a staying affair

I think the Supreme this year was a speedy affair because AF is a slow boat, so you ended up with the two speedier horses winning that

For me, I have two buckets which I sit my selections into for a big race. Those that will perform over quicker ground and no pace (front runners) and those that operate better over soft/testing conditions and where the pace is going to be strong. Then pick my top horse in the category as they start lining up in the race.
Yeah, can still play around with AP betting but my main bets are now left right up until they start to walk-in where I'm able to finalise my assessment of the race

... and yes, I think you can have "staying 2 milers". Buveur D'Air for me is a staying 2 miler. One of the reasons he got beat at Kempton (fast track) by a speedier type. For me the turn "staying" refers to the sort of race conditions which will suit - i.e. true pace over proper national jump going or softer

[Quevega]

with you all the way opatcho.

[Eireman]

Surely if you were to draw a comparison to Usain Bolt in horse racing it would have to be a 5/6 furlong sprinter?

The correct Olympic comparison would surely be:
Arkle=5000 metre
Ryanair=10000 metre
Gold Cup= Marathon

No?

[opatcho]

Emitom is one I'm going to keep a close eye on

I know he lost over the weekend, but that race was over wrong distance, and over pretty good/quick ground. Also had to step he's own pace

Thought he jumped extremely well, really really well actually!!!

Ran a huge race in the stayers, as a 6 year old... and they mad in that race

Horse always improves over further. Available at 33/1 but I think exchange will push him out as soon as some of the big guns in Ireland run.

Trying not to get too involved given we've seen like, 1 RSA potential jump a fence lol. However, I will keen to get involved when he steps up in trip

[Outlaw]

Crikey this has gone down a storm,was very much tongue in cheek(if the emjoi wasn't a clue)as it got plenty of mentions last season by a few Envoy! My own opinion of the horse is he seems suited to a true run race not jut the typical big field scenario folk churn out. Now you can't guarantee that even in championship races(last years CC) but Ideally the higher class of racing the higher class of cruising speed needed as eluded ,and he has displayed that at times when on a sounder surface especially.

[Hurdles or chasing]

A year on, different discipline but that's interesting given both the trainer and jockey said Pic D'orhy didn't get home over 2m3 at Ascot in January. It is quite a vague statement though "a really staying, chasing type of horse" in regards to dictating targets.

I'd have little interest with him over anything further than 2 miles myself.

He said this at the start of last season “I'm very excited about this horse, but we all know what a difficult year it can be for second-season hurdlers, so what do we do with him? Johnny [de la Hey, owner) is open-minded, so we’ll get together and make a plan. He has chaser written all over him and reminds me of Master Minded.”

Nichols is the ultimate hype machine when he talks about his horses. Which as a trainer he probably has to be when owners spend so much money on them. No issue with it but I wouldn't be taken what he says seriously. Fairly sure he was hyping up Getaway Trump at the start of last season for The Arkle. Always one or two for a handicap at Cheltenham that he thinks is too good for the race. Ends up near the top of the market and runs bang average.

If Mullins said one of his horses reminded him of Masterminded or a previous Grade 1 superstar that he used to train I would take a lot more notice. Paul does a great job at hyping a few horses every year it and is very believable.

Pic does look very exciting all the same but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets beaten before Cheltenham and ends up going to Aintree and runs better on a flat track.

[Lobos]

Pic being aimed down same route as Azertyioup and Dynamite Dollars so the Arkle must be the plan.

[Muswell]

Novice Handicap Chase gets the chop for the Mares Chase

[Lobos]

Novice Handicap Chase gets the chop for the Mares Chase

Good decision.