Ryanair 2019

[Kevloaf]

Despite being positive about Politologue previously, I still can't have him at Cheltenham. 4 poor runs is no coincidence IMHO. 14/1, I wouldn't even consider double if I'm being honest.

I think 28/1 would look the best bet of the entire festival each way, because this will NOT be a deep race in any way, shape or form. He'll go in to this with as good a form as anything won't he? Unless you're in the fairyland where Altior, Might Bite, Footpad, et al run?

His Cheltenam form is poor though, you're right:

UR first run when getting involved first time he was there (would forgive that)
Rubbish in the Coral Cup (20th) but big field handicap not his bag at all (and a much better chaser than hurdler!)
4th in Yorkhill's JLT isn't awful, Top Notch has won races since and Disko still well regarded were both ahead of him.
4th in Altior's Champion Chase well beaten but he's never going to be winning a QMCC with top quality in it.

[Leman14]

There is a stat somewhere (Gault?) that horses that run in the King George have a good record in this...

[ComplyOrDie]

I think 28/1 would look the best bet of the entire festival each way, because this will NOT be a deep race in any way, shape or form. He'll go in to this with as good a form as anything won't he? Unless you're in the fairyland where Altior, Might Bite, Footpad, et al run?

His Cheltenam form is poor though, you're right:

UR first run when getting involved first time he was there (would forgive that)
Rubbish in the Coral Cup (20th) but big field handicap not his bag at all (and a much better chaser than hurdler!)
4th in Yorkhill's JLT isn't awful, Top Notch has won races since and Disko still well regarded were both ahead of him.
4th in Altior's Champion Chase well beaten but he's never going to be winning a QMCC with top quality in it.

I'd disagree regarding the 28/1, he is yet to place at the festival, can come up with whatever excuses you find, ultimately he doesn't act around there and Nicholls has said as much himself. The JLT you speak of only had 8 runners, and he still found himself 4th, which would not be good enough. The last 8 runnings of the Ryanair we have had the following field sizes, 6, 8, 15, 14, 11, 8, 12 & 13, so all bar last season has the race historically 'cut up'.

I really rate Politologue, on a flat track, in which case I'd prefer to back him for the King George than the Ryanair.

I can forgive the UR, that can happen to any horse, but I'm not having that JLT run as not awful, he was still 10 lengths behind, which, barring Top Notch & Disko the rest have been up to absolutely nothing and he finished further behind Yorkhill than he was ahead of the 5th, Kilcrea Vale who is now only rate 135 and is average at best. I can accept Politologue may have improved, but I'd say that improvement has come down as much to Nicholls' good placement as it has his overall improvement as a horse.

[mayo]

There is a stat somewhere (Gault?) that horses that run in the King George have a good record in this...

KING GEORGE - 7 of the last 10 winners competed in the King George that season finishing 266P552. Double Shuffle (what a run) Tea For Two, Traffic Fluide, Fox Norton. Riverside Theatre 2nd in K George the season before winning this. Double Shuffle

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is Politilogue better suited going right handed?

7/7 going RH, 3/11 going LH, 0/4 at Cheltenham.

[ComplyOrDie]

Is Politilogue better suited going right handed?

7/7 going RH, 3/11 going LH, 0/4 at Cheltenham.

Could also be another factor FM.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Could also be another factor FM.

I really like him for the KG and think he's the one to beat, and if he wins the KG then they'll almost certainly go the GC route.

[ComplyOrDie]

I really like him for the KG and think he's the one to beat, and if he wins the KG then they'll almost certainly go the GC route.

I'm in the KG camp for him, rather him run in that than this tbh, could not have him for the GC though

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm in the KG camp for him, rather him run in that than this tbh, could not have him for the GC though

Neither could I but I can't think of many KG winners that didn't attempt the GC.

[Kevloaf]

I'm not disagreeing on his chances CoD.... however I can assure you if a bookie put up 28/1 they'd get plenty of money in the book each way.

Fact is he's 14s and my point was he may not get any bigger!

As I've said plenty, I'd always try and look to beat the book first before getting too bullish as we have no idea what the day of the race will look like.

[mayo]

Finally read that Lydia article some left field ideas including either Altior or Might Bite running here

[Kevloaf]

Finally read that Lydia article some left field ideas including either Altior or Might Bite running here

I would LOVE to see them against each other over this trip, as a one off race (but not to the detriment of the other races!).

Wouldn't happen. A defeat for Altior and a defeat for Might Bite and it'd still never happen while both with Nicky. Altior needs Nico's strength anyway as he bustled him along 2f out every time haha

[Innoko]

What's the chances of Might Bite missing the KG and sending Altior there instead?

[Kevloaf]

You'd need Altior beaten in the Tingle Creek and Might Bite to pick up an injury in my opinion. I don't buy the theory they'll 'leave out' the King George to freshen him up for the Gold Cup. Nicky Henderson is on record saying the King George is his target and it suits him better...


So pretty slim, would be a very exciting runner but I doun't think either things will happen

[Can't Catch Me]

Does anyone know if Willoughby Court will be taking up his engagement at Newcastle on Saturday?

Sorry ignore me.. see he's been declared for Newbury tomorrow. Looking forward to seeing him out.