Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[opatcho]

I found this interesting:

Every year the first three home in the Champion Bumper are somewhat lazily inserted as the ante-post favourites for the following year’s novice hurdles. However, history will tell you that this is not the place to look for future Cheltenham Festival winners, as only two of the thirty horses to fill the frame between 2008 and 2017 (last 10 years) have won at the Festival subsequently, namely Cue Card (2009 - 2013) and Champagne Fever (2012 - 2013).
Whilst that statistic is rather damning, those who possess previous Cheltenham experience do have a very good record in novice events. Take this year for example; seven of the nine novice winners had run at Prestbury Park before, with Samcro, who won the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, and Laurina, who landed the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, the only exceptions. While 11 of the 18 runners who filled the places also boasted previous experience in the Cotswolds.
If combining these two factors, which means putting a line through those who contested the 2018 Champion Bumper and those who have no Cheltenham experience to date, the two shortest priced contenders are Al Dancer, who impressively won a handicap off a mark of
129 at Cheltenham last weekend, and Thomas Darby (Supreme Novices Hurdle), who made a successful hurdling debut at Prestbury Park in October. The former is unbeaten over timber and is clearly a very promising young horse. However, a glance at the form book reveals that the latter may be the horse to focus on.

Totally agree with this, and I'm already on Thomas Darby. I think he would over turn the form with Didtheyleaveuoutto in a supreme - championship pace, and I was very impressed with his run at Cheltenham - very green as well. I'd like to see him improve, he should do given the amount of races he's had so far

I'm against bumper horses for this. Stats are against them and think those with 4-5 bumper runs under their names are normally limited in terms of improvement when taking on hurdles.

[opatcho]

Taking the 7/2 on Thomas Darby for the Supreme Trial on Friday.

Thought it was another nice performance from Elixir de Nutz and TD's form beating him looks very good. The Henderson horse will have to be a bit special to beat TD first time up Id say. Will be hovering over him for the Supreme in case he does!

I'm with you here, I rate Thomas Darby, but if this Angels Breath turns up on Friday and beats TD first time out.... then wow! I don't like backing horse with less than 3 - 4 hurdle wins but if he jumps well and beats TD then Angels will be promoted to the top of my list

Angels was smashed in at the odds last weekend before being withdrawn, despite the field consisting of a in-form Elixir De Nutz.

Will be keeping a very close eye on the betting and on the race this coming Friday

[Kevloaf]

This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?

[Quevega]

I like Thomas Darby too.
On him at 25s
Angels Breath at 33s (worth backing before or during race friday if they meet, if you've not already)
Quick Grabim 50s
Annamix 20s

Really liked Eldorado Allen but cashed him out after hearing of injury.

[Quevega]

This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?

I think there's a chance we only see Annamix the once, like Melon. But I'd imagine they'll try and get two races in as long as he gets a run at xmas.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

We’re all sat here waiting to hear if Scooby knows whether Annamix has turned into a slow mudlark.........

[BigChaang]

This season, will the 'trends' about number of runs just be blown away?

Mullins / Elliott / Henderson haven't got as many runs as perhaps they usually would into (what we assume) will be their best horses....

I don't think they'll cram extra races in BEFORE Cheltenham, so is it a year to ignore those types of trends, or back them?

Been wondering that myself Kev , Spent a fair while on sunday looking into this race , and i have to say
Al dancer is one of the few that are anywhere near the 4-5 hurdles runs required .
F.w.i.w. , my top 5 ended up - Al dancer, Aramon, elixir d. n.,itchy feet ,quick grabim.

[Scooby91]

We’re all sat here waiting to hear if Scooby knows whether Annamix has turned into a slow mudlark.........

If you think theres an issue. Just PM Joe chambers
There's no issue

[Kevloaf]

We’re all sat here waiting to hear if Scooby knows whether Annamix has turned into a slow mudlark.........

We're not.

and he won't....

[Kevloaf]

Just PM Joe chambers
There's no issue

We're not.

and he won't....

Too late

[Scooby91]

You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.

[Kevloaf]

You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.

On that, some of them seem to shorten but the cash out just stays at "full stake"

It seems to be on ones that the target is unlikely.

Can't think of specifics, I'll try keep note.

[Quevega]

You can back him ballymore anyway with 365 if you want to. Hes unlikely to go there, but They go NRNB soon and he'll be half the price, so you can cash for profit.

Be daft not to at 25-1,
added it last week

[Scooby91]

On that, some of them seem to shorten but the cash out just stays at "full stake"

It seems to be on ones that the target is unlikely.

Can't think of specifics, I'll try keep note.

That's because it's not full cash out until it's nrnb.
Ie quick grabim. His cashout will double in a weeks time.

[Quevega]

That's because it's not full cash out until it's nrnb.
Ie quick grabim. His cashout will double in a weeks time.

I think it may be even more sophisticated than that, and probably takes quite a few things into account.