Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Angels Breath 25/1 any race

Who with?

33s with 365 for those inclined to 'do it themselves'

[Chris]

I just a had look back at the Punchestown bumper and Tornado Flyer look the first horse beaten and Blackbow was cantering with a furlong and half to run but came under pressure and after that he stayed on. I can only see Tornado, Blackbow and Carefully Sel. as stayers.

[Scooby91]

I just a had look back at the Punchestown bumper and Tornado Flyer look the first horse beaten and Blackbow was cantering with a furlong and half to run but came under pressure and after that he stayed on. I can only see Tornado, Blackbow and Carefully Sel. as stayers.

You have to put it into context with how far back the others were . Blackbow is a keen traveller he could run over 2m no bother hopefully he's not quite as keen. Tornado flyer he could drop to 2 no bother aswell bit he's going for the lawlors hotel at naas next that's the ballymore route. Carefully selected he won't be dropping back to 2 he's more than enough pace for 21/2 But he could go up to 3. They're 3 very very good bumper horses imo. Tornado flyer just showed it on the track. Blackbow and carefully selected have already won there ptp so they should be well able to translate that form to hurdles

[jack1092]

On Tornado Flyer i'd be surprised if he went any further than 2 1/2 this year..he has a bit of keenness there.

Not really, If I had to rank the bumper horses from last year, and the better ones get over bet anyway IMO.
I personally liked carefully selected the most, but blackbow and tornado could prove to be the better of course.

In my mind It's more often the case that horses down the field in the bumper do better the following season as a lot of trainers aren't training them for the champion bumper and are more interested in hurdlers and chasers in the long term.

As a general rule this is strictly true.

However, i think given the giggy fallout a few years back now, this was Willie's first actual full string of horses coming out after the box refill- i wouldn't be surprised if his bumper runners last year buck the trend.

[Quevega]

On Tornado Flyer i'd be surprised if he went any further than 2 1/2 this year..he has a bit of keenness there.



As a general rule this is strictly true.

However, i think given the giggy fallout a few years back now, this was Willie's first actual full string of horses coming out after the box refill- i wouldn't be surprised if his bumper runners last year buck the trend.

When making bets I like general rules, especially when the market tends to ignore them.
The successful Bumper horses are generally overbet, so are triumph horse's going for the champion hurdle.
They seem obvious options but statistically they rarely deliver wins or places (if you play each way).

With the Bet365 concession is clearly a smart play to cover horses like this early as the potential is obvious, especially given the trainer.
But as to whether any will end up as champion novices in March then I have my doubts, even though I've backed some of them.
Percentages tell you at least one of the big three male bumper horses Willie has got could pay off come march.

But I do think that speculative antepost plays in the novice hurdle division is a tricky one .
It was hard to get right from this far out last year, except for Samcro who was signposted by connections very early.

There's probably better races that suit long term approaches, like the arkle for example.

[Chris]

You have to put it into context with how far back the others were . Blackbow is a keen traveller he could run over 2m no bother hopefully he's not quite as keen. Tornado flyer he could drop to 2 no bother aswell bit he's going for the lawlors hotel at naas next that's the ballymore route. Carefully selected he won't be dropping back to 2 he's more than enough pace for 21/2 But he could go up to 3. They're 3 very very good bumper horses imo. Tornado flyer just showed it on the track. Blackbow and carefully selected have already won there ptp so they should be well able to translate that form to hurdles

I can't see Blackbow as a supreme horse, I believe he's the best jumper from the 3 mentioned so if Annamix gets injured Blackbow will run here I reckon.

[Scooby91]

I can't see Blackbow as a supreme horse, I believe he's the best jumper from the 3 mentioned so if Annamix gets injured Blackbow will run here I reckon.

I think blackbow will go here but is no more than 60/40 imo. He has a high cruising speed.

[CJW]

TORNADO FLYER:

"He can go up to two and a half miles, and if he is good enough to be a Ballymore horse, he can go to two-mile-five. He should be good enough for that. He has the speed to be a two-mile novice hurdler, but we will see when he goes jumping what he is able to do."

Ballymore seems the aim and I think it suits him more, you need a horse who can keep finding more at the end. Lawlors hurdle aswell has been used as a Balllymore route in the past.

[Chris]

I can't see Blackbow as a supreme horse, I believe he's the best jumper from the 3 mentioned so if Annamix gets injured Blackbow will run here I reckon.

I agree with you the 3 bumper horses from last year are very special animals.

[ComplyOrDie]

What are the thoughts on Commander Of Fleet now for this?

I notice Betfair & PP both pushed him out to 25/1 which is a fair way bigger than most of the others, maybe a telling sign?

[archie]

The Land Rover bumper form not really holding up too well.

[jack1092]

What are the thoughts on Commander Of Fleet now for this?

I notice Betfair & PP both pushed him out to 25/1 which is a fair way bigger than most of the others, maybe a telling sign?

I think it was a bit of a Deathy Duty mishap from Gordon running him over 2miles in a G1 after looking so green on his debut.

Still plenty of ability there but more of a stayer like the 2nd in the land rover IMO.

[Scooby91]

What are the thoughts on Commander Of Fleet now for this?

I notice Betfair & PP both pushed him out to 25/1 which is a fair way bigger than most of the others, maybe a telling sign?

He's just plain not good enough imo it will be the Martin pipe

[ComplyOrDie]

He's just plain not good enough imo it will be the Martin pipe

I'm beginning to think this!

[ComplyOrDie]

I think it was a bit of a Deathy Duty mishap from Gordon running him over 2miles in a G1 after looking so green on his debut.

Still plenty of ability there but more of a stayer like the 2nd in the land rover IMO.

Would agree with this too, more a Bartlett type than anything else right now.